Is Orange the New Blue for Southern California Republican Stronghold?
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif.—Until recently, an upscale resort in Orange County, Calif., may have seemed an unlikely place for a boisterous gathering of 700 Democrats looking to unseat a longtime Republican congressman.
But Democrats say this wealthy, suburban county south of Los Angeles—the birthplace of Richard Nixon and longstanding symbol of Sun Belt conservatism—is in the midst of political transformation that could help them take back the U.S. House of Representatives.
Two of the county’s four congressional Republicans, Darrell Issa and Ed Royce, said in January they would retire rather than seek re-election, leaving lesser-known Republicans to joust for their seats. More than a dozen Democrats also have entered those races. In addition, several well-funded Democratic contenders have lined up to take on Orange County Republican incumbents Mimi Walters and Dana Rohrabacher.
All four congressional districts in Orange County voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Mr. Issa narrowly retained his seat in 2016, winning by 1,621 votes, or less than a percentage point.
Grassroots activists have been promoting the tagline “Orange is the new blue,” while regular protests have become common at Republican district offices.
Behind the Democrats’ hopes is a demographic shift in Orange County, which is becoming less white and more Latino. The percentage of whites in the county fell to 44.13% in 2010 from 78.1% in 1980, while, over the same period, the total Latino population increased to 33.7% from 14.8%, according to U.S. Census Bureau data compiled by California Target Book.
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Sweeping the region’s races remains a tall test for Democrats, however. To win all four districts, voters that don’t typically show up in nonpresidential years would have to turn out, or some Republicans would have to turn their backs on their party, experts said.
One potential motivator for some Orange County Republicans to vote against their party could be the tax overhaul that President Donald Trump signed into law last year, as the bill increases taxes on some high-earning Californians and residents of other high-tax states. Mr. Issa and Mr. Rohrabacher both voted against the measure, while Ms. Walters and Mr. Royce voted for it
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-orange-the-new-blue-for-southern-california-republican-stronghold-1519560002
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