Minnesota was #1 (new Covid cases per capita, 7 day average). Updated 11/20

[progree]

Last edited Sat Nov 20, 2021, 12:33 PM - Edit history (2)

U.S. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
(See the county-level colorized map of the U.S., and the table of states below that. The U.S. overall unfortunately is on a definite uptrend again, +15%   7 day average compared to the 7 day average 14 days preceding.)


Minnesota https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/minnesota-covid-cases.html


Restaurants And Breweries Offering Outdoor Experiences Again, As COVID Cases Continue To Rise In MN, 11/13/21
https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2021/11/13/restaurants-and-breweries-outdoor-dining/
Several businesses are bringing back the creativity from last winter and offering outdoor options. ...


Why COVID cases are surging in states with high vaccination rates — and what it means for the winter ahead 11/11/21
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/why-covid-cases-are-surging-in-states-with-high-vaccination-rates-and-what-it-means-for-the-winter-ahead/ar-AAQBgME?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531


##### UPDATES ################

See #4 for Nov 20 update

[progree]

1. MN COVID surge forces hospitals to treat patients in hallways, delay non-essential procedures

Last edited Sun Nov 14, 2021, 06:50 AM - Edit history (1)

Twin Cities Pioneer Press, November 13, 2021
(no paywall for this MSN-hosted article)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/insurance/mn-covid-surge-forces-hospitals-to-treat-patients-in-hallways-delay-non-essential-procedures/ar-AAQDQEl?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Across the state, hospitals are once again delaying non-essential medical procedures, treating emergency room patients in hallways and ambulance bays, and diverting less serious cases to outpatient clinics that have been converted to urgent care centers.

“We have 150 patients hospitalized with COVID right now, and as a result of that, we don’t have anywhere to put our new patients as they come in,” said Dr. Mark Sannes, senior medical director and infectious disease specialist for HealthPartners, which operates eight hospitals across the state, including Regions Hospital in downtown St. Paul. “Normally, they’d be up in an emergency room bed. It’s true across the state. We’re in constant communication with the other health systems … and there are no beds anywhere.”

As the holidays approach, emergency rooms are experiencing deja vu from last November, with at least two big differences. This COVID surge comes at a time when medical centers were already near capacity treating non-COVID patients, many of whom need serious care after deferring treatment in the pandemic. And, after nearly two years of battling coronavirus from the front lines, staff are depleted and exhausted.

... Some Medical Procedures Put On Hold ...

[progree]

2. Oh whew! We're no longer #1. We're #2. Michigan is #1 per capita new Covid cases

Last edited Tue Nov 16, 2021, 03:34 PM - Edit history (1)

7 day moving average.

As for the 5 states: Minnesota and its 4 U.S. neighbors, how we rank:
#2 Minnesota, +67% over 14 days [1]
#4 NoDak
#7 Wisconsin
#15 SoDak
#17 Iowa

[1] 7 day average compared to the 7 day average 14 days preceding

U.S. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
(See the county-level colorized map of the U.S., and the table of states below that. The U.S. overall unfortunately is on a definite uptrend again, +14% 7 day average compared to the 7 day average 14 days preceding.)

Minnesota https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/minnesota-covid-cases.html

COVID In MN: State Crosses 9K Deaths As Positivity Rate Eclipses High Risk Threshold, WCCO (CBS), TUESDAY 11/16/21
https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2021/11/16/covid-in-mn-9k-total-deaths-positivity-rate-high-risk/

Cases: 10,913, Deaths:+51 (Progree comment: Tuesday's cases are typically a 3 day total, Friday until Monday 4am, so is 3,638/day, less than the 7 day running average of 3,950 not including Tuesday's report but including last Tuesday's 7,165 cases which was lower than what it really was because of a backlog of cases)

7 day positivity: 10.3% -- first time this year it's been over the critical 10% threshold

HOSPITAL: ICU: 307, non-ICU: 1,041, Total: 1,348 (also a high for 2021)

Overall, looking at the new cases graph in the NY Times Minnesota link, this state is on fire, with new cases far exceeding all waves except last year's Nov-Dec one, but climbing just as rapidly as last November. But vaccinations help a lot with severe illness, this from the minnsota.cbslocal.com link above:

Minnesota’s rate of deaths for every 100,000 people who aren’t fully vaccinated is more than 11 times higher than the rate among the vaccinated group. It’s more than 15 times higher for hospitalizations.

[progree]

3. Oh darn, we've snatched the little brown jug away from Michigan, we're number 1 again

Last edited Thu Nov 18, 2021, 04:45 AM - Edit history (1)

in daily new cases per capita, 7 day moving average.

And accelerating -- the 14 day change is 84% (7 day average thru Tuesday vs. 7 days average 14 days before)

7 day positivity up a bit more to 10.5%

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2021/11/17/covid-in-minnesota-46-more-deaths-reported-more-than-1380-currently-hospitalized/
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/minnesota-covid-cases.html

Today's (Wednesday's) report is 3,457 new cases. That's considerably below the NYTimes 4,484 7-day-case-average thru Tuesday, so that will help. The previous Wednesday was 5,265 cases, and that will drop out of the 7 day average next time NYTimes does an update (that 5,265 cases included a lot of backlogged cases. The previous 2 Wednesdays before that were 1,799 three weeks ago, and 2,941 two weeks ago.)

Edited to add Nov 18 2:24 AM NYTimes has Michigan at number 1 again. Wednesday's data now included at NYTimes and it dropped the 7 day average a bit in Minnesota (because last Wednesday, which dropped out of the 7 day window, was so much higher than this Wednesday's). Anyway, I think this drop is a very temporary, because last Wednesday was anomalously high due to a backlog.

[progree]

4. #2-Minn, #5-NoDak, #6-Wisc, #13-SoDak, #22-Iowa

The title line is the rankings of the worst new Covid per capita cases, 7 day moving average for Minnesota and its U.S. neighbors.

Some other states
#1 Michigan
#3 New Mexico
#4 New Hampshire

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

The U.S. overall is up 30% in 14 days (7 day moving average as of Nov 19 compared to 7 day moving average as of Nov 5)

37 states with rising numbers, 13 states with falling numbers

[geardaddy]

5. I wonder how much of this is under reporting

by SODAK and Iowa.