CBS News Battleground Tracker poll: Pennsylvania Senate contest narrows

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

The party bases are consolidating around their candidates in the Pennsylvania Senate race, now a toss-up contest with Lt. Gov. John Fetterman ahead by two points heading into their debate Tuesday night. He led by five points a month ago.

To the extent there is attitudinal change, it's partly driven by more Republicans "coming home" toward Dr. Mehmet Oz: the percentage of Republicans saying they'd vote for their nominee is up to 94% from 87% last month.

In Tuesday night's debate, the economy, gas prices, crime and abortion are among top issues people want to hear about — and most don't think it is important to hear about Fetterman's health or Oz's residency.





Last month, voters said a debate was somewhat important — especially Republicans — and today voters are somewhat likely to watch it. Thirty percent of voters overall say they're very likely to tune in. (Perhaps this will rise even higher once Pennsylvanians, at least in the Philadelphia area, remember that the World Series doesn't start until Friday.) And they want to hear about the economy, police and crime, gas prices and abortion.




https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cbs-news-battleground-tracker-poll-pennsylvania-senate-contest-narrows/ar-AA13lUKo

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. As if voting for republicans is going to fix anything. JFC

The republican solution is eliminate Medicare and Social Security.

[Omnipresent]

2. They always forget how Republicans act, until they're elected to lead...

Voting Republican is like expecting your dog to make fudge brownies, but shit happens instead.

[Joe Cool]

3. Third party candidates

Did they just give two choices? There are other candidates for Senate. My guess is that third party candidates will take more votes from Oz than from Fetterman. Fetterman picks up at least +1% net result from those voting third party.

Minor party, independent, and write-in candidates for Senate in Pennsylvania include Ronald Johnson (Constitution Party), Richard Weiss (G), Daniel Wassmer (Keystone Party of Pennsylvania), Erik Gerhardt (L), Quincy Magee (Independent), and Everett Stern (Independent).

[Joe Cool]

4. 2016 and 2018 Senate elections in PA

In 2016, third party candidates got about 4% of the vote for the Senate election in Pennsylvania. In 2018, third party candidates got 1.6% of the vote.
The Keystone party is a splinter group of the Libertarian party.
Third party candidates will take more votes away from Oz than Fetterman.
You can add about a 1% net gain for Fetterman from third party voting. Net gain means Fetterman doesn't gain 1% but gains a +1% in the difference between Oz and him due to third party voting.



2016
Republican Pat Toomey (incumbent) 2,951,702 48.77%
Democratic Katie McGinty 2,865,012 47.34%
Libertarian Edward T. Clifford III 235,142 3.89%


2018
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 2,792,437 55.74%
Republican Lou Barletta 2,134,848 42.62%
Libertarian Dale Kerns 50,907 1.02%
Green Neal Gale 31,208 0.62%

[Indykatie]

5. This Poll is Pure BS - Check Out Early Voting Numbers For PA Below

Dems are knocking it out of the ball park with their early votes in a number of critical states like PA, MI, WI and GA. Dems have a 73%/27% lead over Republicans at this point. Repubs better hope their voters are taking Trump's advice and will all vote on election day.

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=jUTK6mT8j2SLLqymJhmg6A

[Butterflylady]

6. Yes, yes, yes, and yes.

Total BS.