The Countdown - How Long Can Abbott Last?

[Matilda]

The MSM seem to be slowly realising that social media - aka the people - are ignoring them and reporting their own version of current events. And the big one, ever since his truly disastrous, rocks-in-his-head announcement that he was making Britain's Prince Philip a knight of Australia, has been not if, but when, Tony Abbott will be removed as leader by his own party. Even the MSM are running with the story, and Rupert's minions are now turning on him.

Unfortunately for the country, whoever takes his place will still be stuck with an unsellable budget and a government that is seen by many people all over the world as hopelessly elitist, inhumane and completely out of touch.

The truth is, he never should have got to where he is. His rise in the party was due to John Howard's sponsorship, his taking the leadership was organised by RWNJ Nick Minchin, and his election was largely due to Murdoch's gutter press. This is a man who's been carried by others all his life, and at last, it seems he's been found out.

It's just a matter of how much longer he can defy the odds.

[Fairgo]

1. A slow swamping

Its fascinating to watch the machinations of the liberal party as they try to shore up the Abbott hole in their political boat. This is a chance for Labour to shine, if they can stand together for real solutions to the economic problems that have only been exacerbated by this warmed over neoliberal austerity strategy. Interested in hearing your take on how and what Labour should be doing while the dinghy sinks.

[Matilda]

2. It's a bit like watching the Titanic sinking.

I'm torn between hoping Abbott will stay because he's Labor's best chance of being elected next year, and hoping he'll be dumped, if just for the fun of watching him throw a tantrum when it happens.

"They'll have to blast me out" he said this week – I don't think he's capable of going gracefully; it's a matter of just what he'll do, and who he'll try to take with him.

[Matilda]

3. Tuesday - D-Day.

The spill is definitely on for Tuesday, as WA MP Luke Simpkins announced that he would challenge the PM.

While Simpkins couldn't win, it means the position would become vacant. Julie Bishop could put up her hand, because she said only that she wouldn't challenge Abbott, not that she wouldn't contest the leadership if it became vacant.

All the money's on Malcolm Turnbull, of course, and he looks as if he's trying very hard not to smirk. I'd have welcomed it at one time, but that was before he sold out on climate change, trashed the NBN scheme, and cut the ABC into little pieces. Now – not so much.

Mostly, I'm looking forward to seeing the look on Abbott's face when it's over. If he'd any sense at all, he'd have called the spill himself so he could at least go out with some dignity. But he wouldn't understand that concept.

[Matilda]

4. All over - for the moment.

The motion for a leadership spill was defeated – 39 MPs voted for it, 61 against. One vote was informal, and one MP was absent. And Abbott proudly announced afterwards that "Good government starts today". Which looks like an admission that we've had 16 months of bad government from his team already.

And it means that 40% of the backbench have no confidence in their leader – something that would keep a more sensitive soul than Abbott awake at night.

But it's really good news for Labor, with the latest Newspoll figures showing ALP leading the Coalition 57-43 if an election were to be held today. And Abbott is damaged, definitely.

[Fairgo]

5. Best possible outcome

As much as the guilty pleasure of watching Tony fall would be a moments entertainment, this ham strung half measure gives them all pause to reflect on the political landscape. This grinds any momentum for the march to a US style failed economy to at least a temporary halt. Now is the time for Labour to check themselves as well. Can they sieze the day? Are they brave enough to get behind a REAL Labour leader? I need more popcorn, and a score card.

[Matilda]

6. Mr Abbott, are you a Dead Man Walking?

The first question posed by Leigh Sales on the ABC when she interviewed Abbott this week. At last, some in the MSM are starting to ask questions about Abbott's competence.

But, as he so often does when he's goofed in some way, Abbott yesterday tried to play the terrorism card. Once again, his poor judgement was on full show as he was attacked by lawyers for possibly jeopardising a case against would-be jihadists in Australia:

"On Thursday Tony Abbott read from a transcript of a video, which was seized when two men were arrested in Sydney earlier this week and charged with plotting an imminent terrorist attack.

"Criminal lawyer Adam Houda echoed concerns raised by prominent barrister Robert Richter QC about the possibility that Mr Abbott's comments could prejudice a future trial.

"'He wants to milk this situation politically for all it's worth," Mr Houda said.

"And the unfortunate result is that it will also bring unfair prejudice to the matters now before the court and also undermine the court process."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-13/pms-comments-could-still-prejudice-trial-says-legal-community/6090058


Yet Abbott sails blithely on, oblivious to all but his own sense of self-importance. He even ended Question Time yesterday by telling the chamber that he'd just given a "magnificent" answer to a question from the Opposition. He has clearly never read any of the fables of the ancient Greeks, or he might know something about hubris.

[peakhillfm]

7. He wont go

The bloke is arrogant,abnoxious and all round an I AM man.....
He will last the distance due to the fact that no-one has the BALLS to challange him,BUT then he will g0.
Lets see what happens after this years budget????

[Matilda]

8. I think it's just a matter of time,

he is a Dead Man Walking.

Libs won't want to go down the same road as Labor, but when the polls keep dropping, backbenchers in particular get very nervous about their seats. They're currently set to lose decisively; if Abbott's polls keep dropping, it will become a landslide, a repetition of Queensland (ever notice how alike Abbott and Newman are?)

He's refused to negotiate on a demonstrably unfair budget, he's reinstated knighthoods without consulting anybody, and now he's managed to piss off the most conservative in his party by dumping Phil Ruddock, in effect blaming him for the leadership spill, something he brought on all by himself.

Now he's trying to bully the Indonesians over the two drug-runners, and people with an understanding of Indonesia are warning he's more likely to ensure that they will die. But Abbott doesn't understand anything except bullying to get his own way, and their deaths could be the final nail in his political coffin.

Turnbull? Most likely, I should think, because he can win over the Centre. There are many Libs who mistrust his slightly-leftie thinking, but they'll probably just have to bite the bullet or risk losing their seats.

But if the Libs want any chance of winning next year, Abbott has to go. I'd rather he stayed, because I don't have much confidence in Bill Shorten's ability to take on Turnbull, but I'm looking at it from their point of view.

He won't go quietly though - he'll be doing a Newman. I hear Campbell's been ringing up his former colleagues and ranting that they were responsible for his downfall. That's be Tones too - he will never, ever accept that his problems are all of his own making. Typical bully.

It will be fun to watch.

[mackerel]

9. Toe-knee Habit

#t=18

[Tanelorn]

10. Shaun Micallef. Mad as Hell

Has set his spill clock at 18 days. March 15. Ides of March