The Harpocons have been in third place for five consecutive polls.

[OnlyBernieBurnsBush]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

Canadians are waking up!

Team Harper is on track to hit pre-merger Canadian Alliance numbers.

[alcina]

1. Fingers crossed

But we still have weeks to go. Given the similarities between SH's tactics and those of the Bush-Cheney years, part of me worries we'll have our own "October surprise." I really really really really really hope my fears are unfounded.

But I did not find Harper's "yeah, shucks, someone other than me might actually be the next PM" routine at all sincere or reassuring.

[Rod Beauvex]

2. Not a Canadian, but....

Who will end up replacing him? I get the feeling we haven't heard the last of the right wing in Canada.

The powers that be may dump Mr. Harper, but who will they align themselves with. Someone who may be a little to Harper's left, but will still do what they're told.

[alcina]

3. That's a good question

Right now, my money's on Peter MacKay; though I wouldn't completely write off John Baird, despite his confirmed bachelor status. Then again, I wouldn't be totally surprised if they just doubled down on Harper. As I said previously, I'm not really buying his humble-loser routine. And his loyal followers are rabid, if not legion.

[Saviolo]

4. Re: Doubling Down

I really suspect that if Harper loses this election, he's done. Time to "spend more time with his family."

I haven't much been following the internal politics on that side of the aisle, so I'm not really sure who's going to step up, but I can't imagine politics as usual (or at least as usual as it has been under Harper). No one else has the OCD control freak nature to close off all media relations, scientists, etc...