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Thu May 25, 2017, 07:53 PM

Labour close gap on Conservatives as Theresa May's lead over Jeremy Corbyn is cut to five points

Theresa May’s lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour has been cut to five points after the Tory social care chaos.

A stunning poll put the Tories on 43% - but Labour on an astonishing 38%.

The Tories’ lead over Labour is now at it’s smallest since Theresa May became Prime Minister, polls suggest. The five point gap – down from 24 on the day the snap election was called – is the smallest lead the Tories have enjoyed since Theresa May became PM.

If repeated at the polls, the Tories may only lose seats, the Times claimed.

More worryingly for the Conservatives, the once huge 52 point gap between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn‘s personal rating has been cut to 17 in a month.

Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party are now just five points behind Conservatives – their most popular since October 2014.

YouGov’s Anthony Wells said the stunning reversal in Tory fortune appeared to stem from the manifestos. But he added the Tories may have lost support in wake of the Manchester terror attacks.

He said: “It has been a highly unusual few days in an election campaign, arguably unlike any other in history.”

At: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3653280/labour-close-gap-on-conservatives-as-theresa-mays-lead-over-jeremy-corbyn-is-cut-to-five-points-amid-social-care-chaos/

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Reply Labour close gap on Conservatives as Theresa May's lead over Jeremy Corbyn is cut to five points (Original post)
sandensea May 2017 OP
regnaD kciN May 2017 #1
DavidDvorkin May 2017 #2
hrmjustin May 2017 #3
Denzil_DC May 2017 #4
T_i_B May 2017 #5
Denzil_DC May 2017 #6
T_i_B May 2017 #8
Denzil_DC May 2017 #9
LeftishBrit May 2017 #10
T_i_B May 2017 #11
LeftishBrit May 2017 #12
T_i_B May 2017 #13
LeftishBrit May 2017 #14
T_i_B May 2017 #16
muriel_volestrangler May 2017 #17
T_i_B May 2017 #18
LeftishBrit May 2017 #19
Denzil_DC May 2017 #15
Dworkin May 2017 #7
muriel_volestrangler May 2017 #20
Denzil_DC May 2017 #21
Denzil_DC Jun 2017 #22
T_i_B Jun 2017 #23
muriel_volestrangler Jun 2017 #24

Response to sandensea (Original post)

Thu May 25, 2017, 07:59 PM

1. I'd want to see this confirmed by other polls, first...

...considering what we've seen in previous polls, this may just be an outlier.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #1)

Thu May 25, 2017, 08:07 PM

2. It fits the trend, though

More than one poll has been indicating this over the last few days.

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Response to sandensea (Original post)

Thu May 25, 2017, 08:10 PM

3. looks like May is not wearing well and Corbyn is getting his act together.

 

Perhaps the Labour bloodbath predicted might not materialize. Obviously we have to see if other polls confirm this.

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Response to sandensea (Original post)

Thu May 25, 2017, 11:39 PM

4. The broadcast media have to be slightly less blatantly biased in election season,

and the infighting within Labour has been subdued for now.

That and the Tories having to commit to a (wildly badly costed) manifesto that reveals that austerity on steroids is their vision of the future, and it's not going to miss out on hitting the older demographic, coupled with May's terrible public performances on the stump and in interviews and press conferences, probably go a long way to explaining these shifts (and it is a trend, judging by a range of recent polls, as is the improvement in Corbyn's approval ratings).

On the other hand, a hump in Labour's polling performance at this stage in a campaign isn't unusual, and doesn't necessarily indicate anything about the final results. But maybe this'll be an exceptional election in exceptional times.

A major question is what impact, if any, the Manchester bombing and it aftermath will have (unlike Wells, I reckon it's too early to tell - I think we'll need to wait a week or so to see its impact).

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Response to Denzil_DC (Reply #4)

Fri May 26, 2017, 02:26 AM

5. I think the Tory policies for the elderly are a major factor.

In fact you would almost have to ask if the Tories are starting to take the elderly vote for granted!

But I would also agree that the Manchester bombing could still have a major effect on this election.

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Response to T_i_B (Reply #5)

Fri May 26, 2017, 05:32 AM

6. I think the Tories were taking ALL their votes for granted!

Lynton Crosby's strategy seemed to be: "You're streets ahead in the polls. No need for a major effort on your part, Theresa - in fact, it might be counterproductive, as our preparation and your track record in parliament have proven you're not exactly the nimblest of minds when on the spot. Just put yourself around the country a bit at some small gatherings of the faithful and our rentacrowd, repeating a consistent line we can spin into modest media coverage, keep as low a profile as possible otherwise, and it's in the bag."

He may well have some dirty tricks up his sleeve for the late-campaign panic. And there's always scope for Labour to shoot itself in both feet, of course.

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Response to Denzil_DC (Reply #6)

Fri May 26, 2017, 06:33 AM

8. There is a lot to dislike about the Tory campaign

Last edited Fri May 26, 2017, 08:09 AM - Edit history (1)

Suffice to say that if William Hague had campaigned this badly in 2001 he would have been slaughtered by many of the same people now lauding Theresa May.

One major issue I have with the Tory campaign is how centered it is on Theresa May. It's bad enough to make me stop taking pot shots at Corbyn fanboys!

It also affects the local campaign with Tory literature and those big signs you see in farmers fields proclaiming that Tory candidates are "Standing with Theresa May". This makes Tory candidates come across as little more than lobby fodder and will make it very difficult for them to challenge the executive as MP's. And we need more MP's to start holding the government to account for a change!

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Response to T_i_B (Reply #8)

Fri May 26, 2017, 07:08 AM

9. This focus on the party leader seems to be a trend in Scotland as well.

You know my party allegience by now, but the contrast between the election addresses I've been receiving from the SNP and those from the other parties is stark.

From the Tories, it's all Ruth Davidson, Ruth Davidson, Ruth Davidson. She's been seen scuttling around May like some hyperactive toady on the PM's rare (and moderately calamitous) expeditions up here, but otherwise it's all tacky photo-ops (quite Trump-like, and of the sort that scuttled Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy during the last general election), gross incoherence about the likes of immigration (she can't square the UK Tories' aim to reduce it with her agreement that Scotland needs more immigrants) and "Send the SNP a STRONG message: NO SECOND REFERENDUM!!!"

That latter message was practically the only one in the Lib Dem election address I received - and this in a constituency where the ex-Lib Dem MP (Alan Reid) who was voted out in the last GE is standing again, and if he has any claim to votes it's the fact he was a half-decent constituency MP. He didn't even get a mention by name, but they did include a handsome portrait of Alex Salmond!

I haven't received anything from Labour yet. They do have a candidate now, but his name escapes me.

The SNP's didn't mention independence at all, nor the other parties. It focused solely on Brendan O'Hara's efforts in parliament and for his constituency, and despite the fact that Nicola Sturgeon's got very enviable approval ratings, she didn't figure.

Add complete widespread (and no doubt in some cases wilful) confusion between what are devolved powers (and hence something the SNP can be held to account for) and what are reserved powers (for which the UK government must carry the can), and it's the most disjointed election campaign I can remember.

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Response to T_i_B (Reply #8)

Fri May 26, 2017, 03:22 PM

10. Indeed

I think I mentioned that the leaflet I got was entirely about the need to back Theresa May (who is strong and stable) and only mentioned the Conservative Party once (we should back Theresa May by voting for them), and the local Tory MP not at all.

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Response to LeftishBrit (Reply #10)

Sat May 27, 2017, 01:42 AM

11. Was this the one that looked like a 4th rate womens mag?

I've had one from the Tories done in the style of a dodgy women's magazine

It was all Theresa May, Theresa May and Theresa May, with no mention whatsoever of the local area or the candidate. A few other people have had this and been as unimpressed as I was!

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Response to T_i_B (Reply #11)

Sat May 27, 2017, 04:53 AM

12. Luckily I haven't had that one yet

Mine was in the form of a personal letter from Theresa Mayhem.

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Response to LeftishBrit (Reply #12)

Sat May 27, 2017, 05:33 AM

13. This is the offending booklet

And this is just the front cover! Also worth noting the porky pie about Labour's EU policy.



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Response to T_i_B (Reply #13)

Sat May 27, 2017, 12:20 PM

14. Wow; that is bad

Very gimmicky and unprofessional-looking.

Possibly one reason I haven't had it yet is because of that Brexit bit: that might not go down too well in a town where 'our EU ref vote' was 70% Remain.

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Response to LeftishBrit (Reply #14)

Tue May 30, 2017, 03:08 PM

16. Getting more of this nonsense now

Another letter from "You and Your Family" in today's post, entitled "Brexit Special" with a barrage of bad or downright dishonest arguments, pink background and lots of Theresa May. Again, any mention of the local area or their candidate is somewhat lacking. Even the name of the Conservative party only comes up in passing.

If they are sending this tripe to me, it shows that their targeting is somewhat flawed. It's bad enough to drive a man to join the Liberal Democrats!

Never seen such a naff, over centralised campaign. And what's worse is that I still think that the constituency where I live is theirs to lose.

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Response to T_i_B (Reply #16)

Tue May 30, 2017, 06:37 PM

17. I'm getting nothing like that, though I'm in a seat the Tories should win, as long as they try

We had a 'newspaper-style' folded sheet from them, which is fairly standard (they did something similar for the county council election). I didn't bother reading it (I genuinely did need to line my composting bin, just then) so I didn't look to see how much was 'May May May' and how much was the sitting Tory, though I think his name was prominent on the first page.

What I have found out is that my constituency is not going to have any hustings at all. There was the possibility of a church and a school organising something last week (in the neighbouring town), but the Manchester bomb then suspended the campaigns, and after that, people have just said "too much hassle to organise now". So the total of outreach, debate and education on positions, manifestos etc. has been a leaflet each from the main parties, and their websites. About as much as you get from a new takeaway.

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #17)

Wed May 31, 2017, 01:51 AM

18. We have at least had hustings

Last edited Wed May 31, 2017, 07:07 AM - Edit history (1)

The one I attended was hastily rescheduled following the Manchester bombing and was totally devoted to the matter of building on the green belt, which the district council wants to do having been ordered to build houses by Westminster.

The candidate who spoke the most sense, having some experience of planning issues from being on a nearby council was the Liberal Democrat. The local Tories were out in force, and are determined to use the issue as a political football, which means that we were treated to some tubthumping from the Tory leader of the town council. However, my view of the Tory candidate and the chances of him being able to challenge the government on this matter or on the proposals for fracking locally remain unchanged.

At least we have had a few hustings meetings here. Better than a lot of places. The only hustings I've seen anything about in Bolsover for instance have been between the Liberal Democrats and UKIP with no Dennis Skinner or Tory challenger.

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Response to T_i_B (Reply #18)

Wed May 31, 2017, 09:20 AM

19. We have ours on Saturday evening

also postponed due to the Manchester bombing.

Everyone's coming - Labour, LibDem, UKIP - except the sitting Tory MP. Now I realize that MPs may have other commitments (but on a Saturday evening?), but since she declined both for the originally scheduled date, and this one, you get the impression that she doesn't want to attend, or thinks it could damage her re-election chances.

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Response to T_i_B (Reply #13)

Sat May 27, 2017, 01:18 PM

15. Cue vast numbers of parodies! n/t

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Response to sandensea (Original post)

Fri May 26, 2017, 06:08 AM

7. Long term

Folks,

My real interest is in the long term. A recovery in labour prospects could indicate a tiredness with the 'austerity' trick. We will have to wait and see, and of course - vote.

D.

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Response to sandensea (Original post)

Wed May 31, 2017, 12:33 PM

20. YouGov's "brave" attempt to predict individual seats is up

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

Of interest to UK DUers: Oxford West and Abingdon is marked as a Tory/Lib Dem toss-up; NE Derbyshire leans Labour, with Tories about 4 points behind. Argyll and Bute is likely SNP, with the Tories about 6 points behind, but a sizeable Lib Dem behind that. Winchester, for me, is 'likely' Tory, but very likely - 13 points in front.

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #20)

Wed May 31, 2017, 08:48 PM

21. Right enough, rivalries are hotting up in these parts.

This is a re-enactment of upstairs, downstairs:

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Response to Denzil_DC (Reply #21)

Fri Jun 2, 2017, 07:36 AM

22. Background to that pic above

(it's in Helensburgh, my nearest sizeable town):

The SNP And Tories Are Having A Ridiculous Banner Battle In This Scottish Town

Welcome to the waterfront of the charming town of Helensburgh in the west of Scotland.



The holiday resort – known for its little pubs, historical sites, and impressive views of the Firth of Clyde – seems far away from the partisan election rammies taking place across Scotland's TV studios and city centres.

However, one building in the town has become the unlikely embodiment of the election campaign in Scotland as supporters from the two main opposing sides – the SNP and the Tories – have nested inside the very same building.

The pro-independence SNP's local hub moved into the downstairs of a building on the town's waterfront for the election campaign without realising the upstairs is occupied by a staunchly pro-UK supporter of the Scottish Conservatives.

...

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/flegs

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #20)

Fri Jun 9, 2017, 01:14 PM

23. I only saw 2 polls for the constituency where I live

This one, which looked very similar to the result in 2015 and another that predicted an 18% swing to the Tories!

Neither of those polls was ever going to be accurate.

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Response to T_i_B (Reply #23)

Fri Jun 9, 2017, 01:31 PM

24. Electoral Calculus, although they got the overall result pretty wrong (358 Tory seats)

didn't do too bad for you - they reckoned a 0.9% Tory majority.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Derbyshire+North+East

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