Commence "Operation 38 days of soul-grinding stupidity".....NOW

[T_i_B]

Parliament has been dissolved and the general election is officially underway.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32109172

May the Good Lord have mercy on our souls!

[TreasonousBastard]

1. At least you've only got 38 days...

we've got damn near that many months.

[T_i_B]

2. It's still too long IMHO

Everyone will be utterly fed up with it come the 7th May.

Wall to wall (not to mention partisan and substandard) media coverage of lots of empty suits mouthing dubious platitudes is not something I'm all that enthusiastic about. I will post a few threads on here about the parties and asking about everyone's constituency's though. And I'm still mulling over whether or not to attend a local hustings meeting.

[LeftishBrit]

3. Yes. Madly looking forward to it (not!)

[shenmue]

4. And now, the Silly Party

[Ironing Man]

5. well, yes...

its not recieved much publicity, but might i suggest that one to watch might be Wyre Forest?

many of you will remember Dr Richard Taylor, local GP who displaced the incumbent Labour MP in 2001 over an A&E closure - he eventually lost, just, to a no-mark Tory in 2010.

well, he's back - Wyre forest is a swing seat, it changes hands with regularity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyre_Forest_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29

[T_i_B]

6. Thanks for that

The only seat near me that I can see changing hands is Amber Valley in Derbyshire. I can see Labour increasing their majorities in Chesterfield and Sheffield Central (both currently very marginal contests against the Lib Dems) and I can't see Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam or Labour losing Rotherham to a (quite frankly dreadful) UKIP MEP.

[Ironing Man]

7. near me...

Worcester might also be a another swinger (pnnaaar..).

held by a Tory (actually, not a bad one, somewhat outspoken on the subject of payday lenders etc..) with Labour not far behind. LibDems waaaayyy down the list with the usual suspects hoovering up 1500 votes apiece.

the decider is going to be whether 'Kippers vote Tory, and whether ex-LD's vote Labour or Green.

[T_i_B]

8. The other constituency of note near me is High Peak

High Peak has sometimes been something of a bellweather marginal in the past, but this time round I would expect the Tories to hold onto the seat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Peak_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29

I have heard people saying that the Lib Dems are apparently mounting a strong challenge in Derbyshire Dales, but that's a Tory stronghold and I don't see it changing hands anytime soon.

Beyond that, I don't know too much about the situation in the South of Derbyshire, and South Yorkshire has a reputation as a Labour stronghold (with the notable exception of Sheffield Hallam)

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. A poll shows Clegg 2 points behind Labour in Sheffield Hallam

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-liberal-democrat-battleground/

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ESheffield-Hallam-March-2015-Full-data-tables.pdf

[T_i_B]

10. Well, as I have said in LBN....

If you look at the result in Sheffield Hallam last time, local council results in Sheffield Hallam since 2010, the demographics and the the history of the constituency then what you end up with is a seat that would take a herculean effort from Labour to win. And I say that while still accounting for how much Clegg is disliked.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141055527

Also, any seats worth watching near you Muriel?

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. Nothing too interesting here

Possible Southampton Itchen: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/southamptonitchen/

It was really close last time, and the sitting Labour MP John Denham is leaving, and I think he had a fair bit of personal support; the Tory is Royston Smith again. He disarmed a sailor who went crazy on a submarine in dock, so that can't hurt him; but more importantly, he was the city council leader when a big dispute with the unions started over pay cuts. In 2012 there was a massive swing to Labour in the council elections, Labour regained control, and they ended the dispute (uncollected rubbish, that kind of thing - lots of media coverage). The council position was more or less unchanged in the 2014 elections. Although the Labour candidate has no local links at all, I suspect she'll manage to win because Smith will still be linked to the dispute (Ashcroft did a poll there recently, with her 8 points in front, possibly due to a strong UKIP vote).

I think the Tories will take Portsmouth South - the sitting MP, Mike Hancock, was chucked out of the Lib Dems for sexually harassing constituents, but stayed on as an 'independent' MP (he did the same as a councillor, lost that seat, and the Lib Dems lost control of the council). He's now said he's standing again (which could be to get hold of the 'redundancy payment' that MPs who are voted out get), so that might split the Lib Dem vote further. Again, Ashcroft has the Tories ahead.

I think most of the others close to me will stay with their existing party (which is nearly all Conservative). UKIP did take several county council seats in 2013, but I think that was more a protest vote in a low turnout. Eastleigh, next door to me, will, I think, stay Lib Dem - UKIP didn't take it in the 2013 by-election, and I reckon that was their best chance. Although the Greens aren't so popular in Brighton after running the council there, I think Caroline Lucas will still win, with a good personal vote. Labour stand a good chance of taking Hove, since Labour were only 3.7% behind in 2010.

Eastbourne might have switched from Lib Dems to Tories, but an Ashcroft poll there indicates UKIP is splitting the right wing vote nicely. So they are good for something after all.

[non sociopath skin]

12. Not a lot of change likely hereabouts.

The biggest change is likely to be in Berwick where Alan Beith, who had a sizeable personal vote, is standing down. Berwick is a monstrosity of a seat covering not just a huge swarth of Northern Northumberland (far more sheep than people!) but also part of the old South-Eastern coalfield which was included to make the constituency numbers viable.

It was Tory for many years before Beith took it and dug in, helped by tactical voting by Labour supporters in the South. These are likely to revert to Labour now, as the Lib Dems are about as popular as anthrax these days, giving the seat back to the Tories.

Despite the hype and the gaining of a European seat, I don't see much chance of the Kippers making any gains here although they are likely to get some second places, having to some extent replaced the Lib Dems as the "sod-'em-all" party in the North East. They are making great play of targetting my neighbouring constituency of Blyth where the veteran left-winger Ronnie Campbell is standing for the last time. However, as their candidate is a dodgy builder and property developer with some shady business dealings and at least one uncompleted building in the vicinity, I wouldn't rate their chances highly.

Further south, Labour is almost certain to get Mo Mowlam's old seat, Redcar, back as well as Stockton South, which the Tories took by a whisker last time.

The Skin