First off, I want to state emphatically that, given what we know at this time, Al Franken should not and will not resign. Should that occur, though, I have to ask myself what I would do if I were in the shoes of retiring Democratic Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton.
There are two things I would want in my appointee to the Senate. I would of course want someone who could do a good job for Minnesota and the nation, but, just as important, I would want someone with a strong likelihood of retaining the seat when election time comes around.
While Lieutenant Governor Tina Smith is a good and talented person who would probably do a good job as a senator, she is a very, very low-profile figure in Minnesota politics, and her eventual election to the seat to which she'd been appointed would be far from certain.
Instead, if I were Dayton, my first choice would be Rep. Tim Walz, the popular, well-respected seven-term congressman from MN CD1. Walz's integrity and long legislative experience would ensure that he would do a good job as a senator, while his popularity and his extensive campaign experience would help ensure that he would win an election to retain the seat.
Walz has announced that he will not be running for re-election to the U.S. House next year, and has instead thrown his hat into the ring as a candidate for Minnesota Governor in 2018. If he were interested in a Senate seat instead, though, he'd be my first choice. Democrats would have few worries about the governorship, as we're blessed with a deep, strong bench of Democratic gubernatorial candidates this year.
I know much less about the Republican side of Minnesota politics, but I don't believe Michele Bachmann will emerge as a Senatorial candidate. That belief is based almost entirely on her sudden, surprising, and somewhat mysterious withdrawal from politics a couple of years ago. I have no idea what her reasons were, and she certainly isn't telling. But whatever those reasons were, I suspect they may still be a factor at present.
Tom Emmer, the U.S. representative from MN CD6, seems to me a more likely candidate. Although he's much less crazy than Tea Party types like their candidates to be, he remains popular with them. He's also sensible enough to have a chance with Independents and with moderate Republicans, if there are any left. Even so, I think he'd lose by a significant margin in the election.
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