Which year is the Democrats are likely to win back the White House-2020 or 2024?

[nkpolitics1212]

2020- The election will be between a Republican incumbent with mediocre/poor approval ratings vs a lackluster Democratic challenger. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee needs to win all of the states the 2016 Democratic Presidential Nominee won plus MI,PA,and WI. 278ev.
2024- OPEN seat election. After 8 years out of office- voters will want change. Ex. 2000,2008,and 2016.
Democratic Presidential Nominee could be either purple/red state Governors-Gwen Graham(D-FL) or purple/red state US Senators from states with Democratic Governor. Kyrsten Sinema(D-AZ),Catherine Cortez Masto(D-NV), or Tammy Baldwin(D-WI).
Gwen Graham would be the ideal Democratic Presidential Nominee- strong progressive from a battleground state FL.

[beachbum bob]

1. 2020, not even a question any more

democrats have many candidates available for 2020 and none are "lackluster". I expect the nominee will be some one not even known nationally in 2018

[nkpolitics1212]

4. If Gwen Graham(D-FL) wins the 2018 FL Governors Race which she is likely to win,

Graham(D-FL) should be on the 2020 Democratic Presidential Ticket.
Graham turns FL into a blue State, is a progressive liberal, and like her father(former US Senator Bob Graham) - appeals to white working class voters.
A Joe Biden/Gwen Graham-D ticket in 2020 would be the perfect ticket for Democrats.

[Danmel]

2. If it's not 2020

There might not be an America in 2024.

[Cicada]

3. Predictit has odds dem in 2020 of 57%, odds Trump wins 32%

Predictit is a betting market. Betting markets have been proven to have some validity.

[beachbum bob]

5. they were pretty much wrong in the days before Nov 2016 election

[customerserviceguy]

6. Exactly

It's like trying to predict the weather in any given place on Election Day, 2020.

We still have to deal with the fight to get our nominee, and there is no clear front-runner at this point. We might end up with a situation where no one candidate goes into the convention with enough delegates to win on the first ballot. That could make 2016's Democratic convention seem peaceful in comparison.

Clearly, we have a party where a significant proportion of people get their nose out of joint, they will cut it off to spite their face. I fear that will return again in 2020 after a wide-open, knock-down drag-out fight in the primaries leaves us with five or six candidates with no one over 25% of the delegates going into the convention.

[Cicada]

8. Betting markets make errors but may be more accurate than humans

I remember a couple years ago reading that betting markets were more accurate than polls. I don’t know if that is still true. But I would bet a betting market is more accurate than I am, more accurate than most pundits. Admiral Poindexter, resurrected in the GW Bush administration, was dumped in part because he had proposed the CIA use betting markets for things such as “Khadafi will be assassinated in the next year.” He thought this might improve CIA estimates of future events. I think Poindexter was just ahead of his time.

[MichMary]

7. It all depends on what happens between now and 2020.

"It's the economy, Stupid."

Trump is a vile human being. He is crude, profane, racist, boorish, and a waste of skin. But, he is getting the credit for the booming stock market, tax cuts, bonuses, job growth, etc. If that continues, people will hold their noses and vote their wallets.

OTOH, if the economy goes tits up, he will get the blame.