Will the October poll numbers in the 2018 TX US Senate Race show Beto leading Cruz?

[nkpolitics1212]

Looking at the other highly vulnerable Republican held seats in AZ,NV,and TN, the Democratic Nominee in those senate races are in a statistical tie race or leading by a narrow margin.
If Democrats win AZ,NV,TN,and TX. They will end up with 53 seats assuming they win all the highly vulnerable Democratic held seats. If Democrats lose 3 highly vulnerable Democratic held seats, They need to win MS special in the November Runnoff.

[qazplm135]

1. I doubt it

the only way Cruz wins is with a wave election, but you aren't going to develop a likely voter screen that can account for a wave election. The whole point of a wave election is it's much larger than you thought it would be...it's a surprise at least in the magnitude.

So we could see a tie or within MOE but even if he wins, I think it won't be reflected in the pre-election polling as him taking a lead, because the LV screen will almost assuredly miss a chunk of voters voting for the first time or rarely voting.