2020 and 2022 US Senate Election map is more Democratic friendly than in 2018.
During the 2018 Democratic Wave, Democrats had to defend 26 seats, Republicans had to defend 9 seats.
Of the 26 seats Democrats had to defend- CA,CT,DE,HI,ME,MD,MA,MN regular and special,NJ,NM,NY,RI,VT,VA,and WA(16) were in States Clinton carried in 2016. Democrats won the 2018 US Senate Race in all of those 16 seats. Regarding the 10 other seats Democrats had to defend in 2016(FL,IN,MI,MO,MT,ND,OH,PA,WV,and WI), Democrats won the 2018 US Senate Race in MI,MT,OH,PA,WV,and WI(6 seats). Democrats won 22 out of the 26 seats.
Of the 9 seats Republicans had to defend- AZ,MS regular and special,NE,TN,TX,UT,and WY(8) were in States Trump carried in 2016. Republicans won the 2018 US Senate Race in MS regular and special,NE,TN,TX,UT, and WY(7 seats). Democrats won the 2018 US Senate Race in AZ and NV. Republicans won 7 out of the 9 seats.
In 2020, Democrats have to defend 12 seats, Republicans have to defend 22 seats.
Of the 12 seats Democrats have to defend in 2020- AL is the only Democratic held seat that Trump carried in 2016 and will carry in 2020, MI went for Trump in 2016 but is likely to go against Trump in 2020, MN and NH narrowly went against Trump in 2016 and will go against Trump in 2020. Trump lost in 2016 and will lose in 2020- DE,IL,MA,NJ,NM,OR,RI,and VA by a margin greater than 5 percent. Democrats will win the 2020 US Senate Race in MI,MN,NH,DE,IL,MA,NJ,NM,OR,RI,and VA(11 out of 12 seats). Republicans are favored to win AL.
Of the 22 seats Republicans have to defend in 2020- AK,AR,ID,KS,KY,LA,MS,MT,NE,OK,SC,SD,TN,WV,and WY(15) went for Trump in 2016 and will go for Trump in 2020 by a double digit margin. GA,IA,and TX(3) went for Trump in 2016 and will go for Trump in 2020 by a high single digit margin. AZ and NC(2) narrowly went for Trump in 2016 and will narrowly go for Trump in 2020, CO and ME(2) narrowly went against Trump in 2016 and will go against Trump in 2020.
Republicans will win the 2020 US Senate Races in AK,AR,ID,KS,KY,LA,MS,MT,NE,OK,SC,SD,TN,WV,and WY by a double digit margin. Democrats will win the 2020 US Senate Race in CO. Regarding the 6 other seats Republicans have to defend in 2020(GA,IA,TX,AZ,NC,and ME). Republicans will win GA,IA,and TX by a high single digit margin. AZ,ME and NC are in the Tossup column. Republicans are favored to win 18 out of the 22 seats they have to defend.
Best case scenario for Democrats in 2020 is they win 15 seats(trade AL for CO, pick up AZ,ME,and NC). Worse case scenario for Democrats in 2020 is they win 12 seats(trade AL for CO). Democrats will end up with 47 to 50 seats after 2020.
In 2022, Democrats will definitely have to defend CA,CO,CT,HI,IL,MD,NV,NH,NY,OR,VT,and WA(12 seats). Republicans will definitely have to defend AL,AK,AR,FL,GA,ID,IN,IA,KS,KY,LA,MO,NC,ND,OH,OK PA,SC,SD,UT,and WI(21 seats). AZ is the 13th seat Democrat has to defend in 2022 and 22nd seat Republicans have to defend in 2022.
Of the 12 to 13 seats Democrats have to defend in 2022- CA,CO,CT,HI,IL,MD,NV,NH,NY,OR,VT,and WA(12) will definitely go for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee. Democrats will definitely win the 2022 US Senate Race in CA,CO,CT,HI,IL,MD,NV,NH,NY,OR,VT,and WA. AZ will go Democratic if Democrats win AZ in the 2020 US senate special election.
Of the 21 to 22 seats Republicans have to defend in 2022- AL,AK,AR,ID,IN,KS,KY,LA,MO,ND,OK,SC,SD, and UT(14) will go for Trump in 2020 by a double digit margin. GA,IA,and OH(3) will go for Trump in 2020 by a high single digit margin. AZ,FL and NC(3) will narrowly go for Trump in 2020. PA and WI will go for the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee. Republicans will definitely win the 2022 US Senate Races in AL,AK,AR,FL,GA,ID,IN,IA,KS,KY,LA,MO,ND,OH,OK,SC,SD,and UT(18 out of the 22 seats they have to defend).Democrats will win AZ,NC,PA,and WI. Best Case scenario- Democrats will end up with 51 to 54 seats in 2022. Worse case Scenario- Democrats will end up with 49 to 51 seats.
= new reply since forum marked as read
