Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumMaybe I'll have better luck with this in here
Spent more time on this than I care to admit to just let it sink in GDP:
As I think most people know, I'm a numbers guy, and I got bored last night. So I did a little research, tinkered with a small model and came up with some numbers that I think we can have some fun with.
So here is how this works, I'm going to give each of the 5 states that vote on the 26th along with a "% of vote in" number. That number represents how much of the vote is counted before a race is called for either Hillary or Bernie. You take the over or under on that number for each state.
Obviously, this is just for fun, so no asking me to make a bet for an actual exchange of goods or services. And, yes, I did put work into how I came up with these numbers. Ideally, they represent where half of respondents take the over and half take the under.
Anyway, here are your states and base "% of votes tallied"
Maryland -- 1%
Delaware -- 10%
Pennsylvania -- 20%
Connecticut -- 50%
Rhode Island -- 75%
And a bonus, over/under on Clinton's total delegate spread increasing by 50 delegates
My choices:
Maryland -- 1% UNDER Will be called for Clinton when polls close
Delaware -- 10% UNDER Called for Clinton
Pennsylvania -- 20% UNDER Called for Clinton when Philly and Pittsburgh have enough returns in
Connecticut -- 50% OVER Think 50% is probably right around when it will be called. Expect it to go for Clinton
Rhode Island -- 75%. OVER In my opinion, a true toss-up that won't be called until late. Think Sanders squeaks out a win.
Clinton net delegates +50 OVER Maryland and Delaware will be large blowouts and I expect her to win PA by around 15%.
livetohike
(22,145 posts)MarianJack
(10,237 posts)...all 5 by double digits!
I'm sure that we both hope that I'm right!
PEACE!
George II
(67,782 posts)Maryland -- 1% - over
Delaware -- 10% - over
Pennsylvania -- 20% - under
Connecticut -- 50% - under
Rhode Island -- 75% - under
Net delegates - over 50
Raissa
(217 posts)Even without the hard data points it's easy to extrapolate why the percentages are where they are based on polls, primary type, and influential demographics.
I'll be interested to see how accurate your predictions are.
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)But I especially like the idea of all five states again and I don't care when the races are called, so long as Hillary wins.
Just so long as Clinton nets +50 delegates, I'm fine with whatever happens.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)One of the things I do when I decide to tinker outside my professional capacity is find different ways to split up and work with data. This was an exercise where I analyzed when races are called historically and how polling and demographics correlate with when the race is called.
In other words, a while lot of stat work for something that is ridiculously meaningless.
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)Raissa
(217 posts)Statistics and models fascinate me. I'm glad you posted your results.
Walk away
(9,494 posts)Now I can impress my friends a tip of the hat to you!
sheshe2
(83,791 posts)UtahLib
(3,179 posts)Treant
(1,968 posts)in all cases. So far, the media has been rather hesitant to call races for Clinton--look at NY and most of the south, which held out far longer than I would have expected as "competitive" in terms of coverage.
Walk away
(9,494 posts)from the press. CNN was so sure that it was going to be a tight race they didn't call a definite winner until the next day.