Hillary SURGING in IOWA, New Jan 22 poll Loras College-->Clinton 59; Sanders 30; O'M 7

[riversedge]

GRAND DAY!! Game on everyone!!

This is the 3rd poll in 2 days in which Hillary LEADS in IOWA****

(Sanders has one Iowa poll in which he lead)



IOWA NEW Loras College Poll Jan 22 Clinton 59; Sanders 30; O'M 7

http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2016/Clinton-Maintains-Lead,-New-Loras-College-Poll-Fin.aspx



Clinton Maintains Lead, New Loras College Poll Finds
Source: loras.edu

Clinton Maintains Lead, New Loras College Poll Finds

http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2016/Clinton-Maintains-Lead,-New-Loras-College-Poll-Fin.aspx

1/22/2016

With the 2016 Iowa precinct caucuses only ten days away, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton maintains a strong lead over her nearest rival, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, according to the newest Loras College Poll. The statewide poll of 500 likely voters in the Democratic caucus was conducted Jan. 13-18.

The newest Loras College Poll finds Clinton leading in terms of which candidate people intend to vote for, which candidate people expect will actually win the precinct caucuses, as well as who they expect will be the eventual nominee. While Sanders has made small gains since the last Loras College Poll released in December, he remains well behind Clinton in this poll.

“These last days are crunch time for the campaigns,” said Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D, associate professor of politics and director of the Loras College Poll. “The ground games and turnout efforts of the Democratic candidates are in high gear, and with Iowa’s election-day registration rules, it will be a fascinating 10 days. In little more than a week the voters of Iowa will have their say in this remarkable and memorable election year.”



Democrats continue to appear quite comfortable with the top two candidates in the field. Only 5 percent said they would absolutely not vote for Clinton, and another 6 percent said they would absolutely not vote for Sanders.....................

A full 75 percent of those surveyed indicated they were absolutely committed to their first choice candidate.


Read more: http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2016/Clinton-Maintains-Lead,-New-Loras-College-Poll-Fin.aspx






>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The University of Iowa, the first public university to admit men and women equally, is ready to caucus for Hillary!

45 retweets 62 likes

Hillary for Iowa ?@HillaryforIA Jan 21 Iowa City, IA

The stage is set for @ddlovato and @HillaryClinton at the University of Iowa! #ImWithHer








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Hawkeyes for Hillary ?@hawksforhill 23h23 hours ago

Two confident, amazing women. Thanks for stopping by @HillaryClinton and @ddlovato! Can't wait to rock the caucus!

[Treant]

1. That's amazing!

But it does seem rather like an outlier.

I do expect her to win Iowa, but not by very much. I'm thinking around +2.

[riversedge]

2. oh, I

agree. I actually read it a few times because I thought initially thought it was a National poll.

[Treant]

5. Wouldn't it be fun, though?

The explosions around here would be fascinating, like the Fourth of July for Hillary supporters!

[iandhr]

4. Clinton wins Iowa. Sanders wins NH.

My prediction.

[FloridaBlues]

6. She wins it by 5 and takes NH where the dems are for her in every poll

That would rock a few people around here !
It may be outlier but love these numbers!

[yallerdawg]

7. I wonder who would find this headline particularly ANNOYING?

[workinclasszero]

8. This is why st bernies acolytes

Are really losing their minds in GDP.

They know the game is over in 10 days!

[Kath1]

9. Exactly.

Almost over!

[Rose Siding]

10. Ugh, I haven't glanced at a thread in there unless I'm on a jury

-not for weeks. Seeing the next president's face photo shopped on a hooter's type body wasn't, I decided, good for my soul. Every time I'd try and rationalize how anyone could convince their self that it wasn't sexist. Every time I'd end up concluding they probably couldn't and probably intended the sexism, so enough.

I see the latest page sometimes and it's clear they're knocking themselves out with the smears. Fat lot of good it will all do in the end. Maybe some extra money in the coffers of the bloated industry built up around running campaigns, but nothing more.

As Charlie Cook says, demographics and delegate math will tell the final story...

In the wake of new Iowa and New Hampshire polls showing Bernie Sanders gaining, some say it's time for Hillary Clinton to hit the panic button. "Clinton should ABSOLUTELY be nervous about the state of the race with less than three weeks before voters in Iowa head to the caucuses," the Washington Post's Fix blog blared last week.

There are just two obstacles in this theory's way: demographics and delegate arithmetic.

In poll after poll, Sanders's best group within the Democratic Party is liberal whites. Unfortunately for Sanders, Iowa and New Hampshire couldn't be much further on the extreme end of the party's demographic or ideological spectrum. According to our estimates, based on past exit polls and Census data, there is only one state where whites who self-identify as liberals make up a higher share of the Democratic primary electorate than Iowa and New Hampshire.

You guessed it: Vermont.

In fact, 98 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will come from states with lower shares of liberal whites than Iowa and New Hampshire. Just 447 of 4,051 pledged Democratic delegates - 11 percent - are tied to results in states or districts with higher shares of college-educated whites than New Hampshire. Moreover, just 13 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will be awarded in caucus states like Iowa, which as 2008 proved, tend to bring out more liberal participants than primaries.

In other words, if Sanders prevails narrowly in Iowa or New Hampshire, his support among liberal whites and in college towns - essentially Portlandia - would be entirely consistent with a scenario in which he also gets clobbered by Clinton nationally.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9179

[pandr32]

13. It is a cesspool in the general discussions for sure

But I have tried to prop up a reminder that there are still some Hillary supporters on DU...every once in a while.

[Dawson Leery]

15. I she can pull out Iowa, she will be the nominee

and NH won't matter.

[fleabiscuit]

11. Good news. K&R

[Tarc]

12. Iowa isn't winner-take-all, is it?

I think each candidate gets whatever delegates pledge, so while I certainly expect Hillary to win Iowa, if she doesn't it isn't a huge deal, just symbolism. Bernie will probably take NH but after that he's gong to sink out in the midwest and south.

The Bernie club is getting pretty braggy lately but they realistically don't have much of a prayer in the long game.

[Treant]

14. It is not.

Iowa is proportional awarded delegates, awarded by voting district.

So if--for instance--Sanders dominates college campuses but doesn't perform well in the general population, Mrs. Clinton could receive the lion's share of the district votes while not winning by a large percentage.

You can expect the rather arcane--but established, published, and damned well known--nature of the delegate apportion to be something the Sanders people scream about the next morning.

[tex-wyo-dem]

16. If you look at the last eight polls taken...

From 1/5 through 1/20, Loras and Gravis are far outliers with Hill +20 or more. The other six polls have the difference between Clinton and Sanders +9 or less.

So I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the Loras poll...in fact I would be inclined to throw both Loras and Gravis out to get a clearer picture.