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Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
Thu Feb 25, 2016, 11:20 PM Feb 2016

It was too good to be true.

When those projections shot up by several points, I suspected something was amiss. Then, when I looked closer at the curves and saw bimodal distributions (basically two bell curves instead of one, which shouldn't happen unless something influenced the data at a given point) on Bernie's side, I grew even more suspicious.

Well, I was right. Those projections were reversed, and current projections are somewhere around what they were earlier today. Specifically, Bernie is once again at >99% to win Vermont.


South Carolina: Clinton 67.2, Sanders 28.5.
Arkansas: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.6.
Georgia: Clinton 72.9, Sanders 23.6.
Massachusetts: Clinton 49.7, Sanders 47.1.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.8, Sanders 43.7 .
Tennessee: Clinton 65.7, Sanders 31.2.
Texas: Clinton 66.7, Sanders 30.3.
Vermont: Sanders 86.0, Clinton 11.7.
Virginia: Clinton 64.4, Sanders 32.6.
Michigan: Clinton 61.6, Sanders 35.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.8, Sanders 35.9.
Ohio: Clinton 61.0, Sanders 36.7.

Not that we have much to worry about.

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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It was too good to be true. (Original Post) Chichiri Feb 2016 OP
I'm good with that. leftofcool Feb 2016 #1
Vermont is a beautiful state 72DejaVu Feb 2016 #2
Wow DarthDem Feb 2016 #3
Hey, whatever gets Democrats motivated, I'm for it. ffr Feb 2016 #4
Well it helps that Colorado and Minnesota are in a black box right now. Chichiri Feb 2016 #5
Excellent! Love hearing about it too. n/t ffr Feb 2016 #6
Good to hear that. riversedge Feb 2016 #8
I always look to Michigan first GusBob Feb 2016 #7
I'm not shocked about Vermont Coolest Ranger Feb 2016 #9

ffr

(22,671 posts)
4. Hey, whatever gets Democrats motivated, I'm for it.
Thu Feb 25, 2016, 11:39 PM
Feb 2016

These polls don't motivate though. We need close races to get people invigorated, putting the time into their civic duties. It's a show of force. And when the polls are close, more people from the side who thought their candidate was going to breeze to an easy victory come out, resulting in even more participation.

This is what our country needs right now, all of us fighting it out to get every last democratic voter to the polls. If I had to guess, I'd say people who participate in primaries are more likely to vote in the G.E. We get that and we'll run the tables in November.

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
5. Well it helps that Colorado and Minnesota are in a black box right now.
Thu Feb 25, 2016, 11:56 PM
Feb 2016

I know there's a LOT of volunteer activity for Hillary here in the Twin Cities.

GusBob

(7,286 posts)
7. I always look to Michigan first
Fri Feb 26, 2016, 12:22 PM
Feb 2016

then Ohio. I feel they are true blue Dem states and give the pulse of Democrats

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