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Mon Feb 29, 2016, 01:27 AM

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 29, 2016

Reprinted from here with permission of the author (me). Please keep this thread kicked throughout the day so that non-night-owls won't miss it.



[font color="blue"]Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 544, Sanders 85 (Clinton +459).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 91, Sanders 65 (Clinton +26).
2,383 delegates to secure the nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.


Latest Results

South Carolina (53): Clinton 39, Sanders 14 (Clinton +25).
Vote Spread: Clinton 73.5, Sanders 26.0 (Clinton +47.5).
Versus Median Projection (Clinton +20): +27.5.


Next Primary: March 1 (Super Tuesday)

Alabama (53), median Clinton +30.
American Samoa (6): median tie.
Arkansas (32), median Clinton +24.
Colorado (66), median Sanders +11.
Georgia (102), median Clinton +40.
Massachusetts (91), median Sanders +11.
Minnesota (77), median Sanders +21.
Oklahoma (38), median Sanders +4.
Tennessee (67), median Sanders +2.
Texas (222), median Clinton +13.
Vermont (16), median Sanders +83.
Virginia (95), median Clinton +9.



[font color="darkblue"]Latest Polls

Tennessee (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 60, Sanders 34 (Clinton +26).
Texas (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 59, Sanders 38 (Clinton +21).
Georgia (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 64, Sanders 30 (Clinton +34).
Virginia (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 59, Sanders 39 (Clinton +20).
Texas (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 61, Sanders 37 (Clinton +24).
Georgia (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 63, Sanders 35 (Clinton +28).
Massachusetts (Suffolk): Clinton 50, Sanders 42 (Clinton +8).


Current Polls-Plus Projections (from 538)

Arkansas: Clinton 64.4, Sanders 32.2.
Georgia: Clinton 70.1, Sanders 26.7.
Massachusetts: Clinton 51.8, Sanders 45.1.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.1, Sanders 44.3.
Tennessee: Clinton 65.2, Sanders 31.6.
Texas: Clinton 65.5, Sanders 31.7.
Vermont: Sanders 86.6, Clinton 11.1.
Virginia: Clinton 62.7, Sanders 34.3.
Michigan: Clinton 60.9, Sanders 36.2.
North Carolina: Clinton 59.8, Sanders 36.7.
Ohio: Clinton 60.2, Sanders 37.5.
Florida: Clinton 66.6, Sanders 30.6.
Illinois: Clinton 65.7, Sanders 30.3.


Current Endorsement Score (from 538)

Clinton 474, Sanders 4.



[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
538 Massachusetts Projection: Trump 43, Rubio 24, Kasich 18.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 155, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.



[font color="black"]Comments
Happy Leap Day, and happy Super Tuesday Eve!

A bit of a bump for Bernie in all races' projections, possibly owing to the fact that he picked up his fourth endorsement from a member of Congress. (Hillary's endorsement score remains 474.) Also some good news for Bernie in a few states above, which are reflected in a greater or lesser narrowing in those races. Hillary continues to exceed the median in those states, however.

Bernie is focusing on five Super Tuesday states: Colorado and Minnesota (caucus states), Massachusetts and Oklahoma (states in which he has closed the polls to a reasonable margin behind Hillary), and Vermont (of course). These five states offer a total of 288 delegates. The remaining states, in which Hillary is heavily favored (except for American Samoa, for which there is no data), offer a total of 577 delegates.



How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.


[font color="purple"]
Pun of the Day
Don't tell the builder how to do his job; he doesn't take constructive criticism!

[font color="black"]

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Reply STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 29, 2016 (Original post)
Chichiri Feb 2016 OP
Agnosticsherbet Feb 2016 #1
Historic NY Feb 2016 #2
Khellendross Feb 2016 #3
Surya Gayatri Feb 2016 #4
PrimaryProjection Feb 2016 #5
Chichiri Feb 2016 #8
HillareeeHillaraah Feb 2016 #6
Chichiri Feb 2016 #7
Thinkingabout Feb 2016 #9
UtahLib Feb 2016 #10
Chichiri Feb 2016 #11
DesertRat Feb 2016 #12

Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 01:34 AM

1. Excellent post.

Kick...

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 02:01 AM

2. K&R

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:05 AM

3. Thanks!

Was looking for the current counts. o.@

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:35 AM

4. K&R

 

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:52 AM

5. Just to piggy back on this, it looks like Clinton might win the race by May!

Updated my Primary Projection app with the latest polling and superdelegate information. If you look at the end of the graph, we're looking at a 100% secured nomination by the California primaries in June. BUT, with the latest polls and superdelegates, Hillary's edging closer to the line in May. She only needs to get 70 delegates from the greyed out states with no polling data, and there are 406 of those delegates up for grab before June!

Right now I think it's not so much if she'll win, but when she'll win. Theoretically it could be over by mid-April...

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Response to PrimaryProjection (Reply #5)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:46 AM

8. Nice site, bookmarked! nt

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:42 AM

6. I can't believe we might lose American Samoa. N/t

 

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:44 AM

7. Morning kick! nt

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 08:01 AM

9. EVER ONWARD!!!

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 11:44 AM

10. K&R. nt

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:00 PM

11. Afternoon kick. nt

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:06 PM

12. k&r!

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