I used to eagerly look...

[LAS14]

.... for polls showing Clinton ahead. Now they just scare me.

[LisaM]

1. Frankly, that Michigan poll never seemed right to me.

And it ultimately ended up doing harm, if the crossover vote was really at 7%. I'd like to think it wasn't true that people did that, but unfortunately, I have a lot of friends in Michigan who reported anecdotally that it absolutely happened. It reminds me of 2000 when people thought they'd enthusiastically "swap" Nader votes for Gore votes if they were in safe states. I didn't get it then (of course, I never drummed up any enthusiasm for Nader, he had begun to seem demented to me), and I don't get it now. Trading away your vote seems about the most un-democratic civic action possible.

You can factor in one other thing: the weather was apparently freaking gorgeous, causing voters, especially college students - who were getting the ultimate pandering treatment by Sanders - to turn out in unexpected numbers. 538 ended up not considering a lot of voters who had probably not been considered "likely" voters before.

[Her Sister]

2. 538 had a podcast in itunes about Michigan polls

You can listen there and also subscribe free in itunes. They take polls seriously so they really get into it. Not a joke for them. Maybe it could help feel more confident about the future in these election primaries...


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/elections-podcast-the-biggest-primary-polling-upset-ever/


Elections Podcast: The Biggest Primary Polling Upset Ever
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT

"We convene a special gathering of our elections podcast team to discuss Bernie Sanders’s surprise victory in Michigan on Tuesday. By most measures, it’s the biggest polling miss in a primary in modern political history. But will the result in Michigan change the dynamics — or delegate math — of the Democratic race?"

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. Thanks for sharing that link. Bookmarking for when I get home.

[Lucinda]

3. I wouldn't worry about them.

I don't think they had a solid base to work from in MI due to the 08 election issues with Edwards and Obama not on the ballot. If any of that applies to Florida, they will probably revise, and we'll know on Tuesday if things are back to normal.

Hillary is way ahead in both delegates, and the not all that useful but still cool to brag about, "popular vote" - She's got this!

[book_worm]

4. Michigan was the biggest pollster blunder in a long time

on the whole the polls are pretty accurate. But I'm not posting any polls regarding March 15 until I'm sure that they have been conducted after Michigan--because I want to wait and see what kind of bounce Bernie got.

[Stuckinthebush]

5. Won't happen again

At least not this cycle.

Pollsters are sweating bullets and madly checking their methodologies right now. It's their livelihood on the line.

[fleabiscuit]

7. No negative waves baby...

[Thinkingabout]

8. It is time to look forward and not look back, sometimes when we try to see how close our

competitor may be it takes our eyes off the goal. We will refocus on the goal and continue the race.

[Godhumor]

9. Good. Take nothing for granted n/t