STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 12, 2016

[Chichiri]

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 574 (Clinton +649).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 776, Sanders 551 (Clinton +223).
Versus Targets: Clinton 776/685 (+91), Sanders 551/642 (-91).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
March 12 (MP): Clinton 4, Sanders 2 (Clinton +2).
Versus Targets: Clinton 4/3 (+1), Sanders 2/3 (+1).


Next Primary: March 15

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.



Comments
Did you know that the two-letter code for the Northern Marianas is MP? I didn't either. I assume the M stands for Marianas, and the P is . . . what? Province? Protectorate? Political zone? The territory was infamous for years due to worker abuse problems and no minimum wage to speak of -- Tom DeLay called it a "petri dish of capitalism" -- but since Democrats took Congress in 2006, conditions have improved. Anyway, Bernie couldn't really afford to fall even a single delegate behind target from this tiny place, but that's exactly what he did, and Hillary gained 2 more pledged delegates on him.

I'm trying to avoid speculation about what will happen on Tuesday. I feel reasonably safe in saying that Hillary will win Florida and North Carolina, but that's as far as I'll go. Everyone is still reeling from Michigan. So Hillary supporters, be sure to make calls, canvas, donate, do whatever you can between now and Tuesday. Let's take those rust belt states!



How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.


Iditarod Update
Brent Sass out of Kaltag at 08:20, Mich Seavey in at 07:41 (now on 8-hr layover), Aliy Zirkle out of Nulato at 06:16. Aliy Zirkle and Jeff King were attacked by an unknown assailant with a snow machine outside of Nulato; they killed one of Jeff's dogs and injured several others. RIP Nash. Reporters are that the assailant has been located.

[Rose Siding]

1. Nice, especially considering Obama's biggest lead in 08 was around 120

-which makes her target numbers make a little more sense to me.

Thank you for posting this!

[George II]

14. "This is starting to look like 2008"

[pandr32]

2. Steady as she goes!

So proud to be with Her

[BlueMTexpat]

3. Thanks for the update, Chichiri!

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for all states on March 15, but am less worried about those with closed primaries, where the polls should be accurate.

Sorry to hear about the Iditarod incident. How awful for them and their animals!

[JohnnyLib2]

4. Thanks again.

The Iditarod news is very sad, too.

[Her Sister]

5. -1 !?

Versus Targets: Clinton 4/3 (+1), Sanders 2/3 (-1).

[Treant]

8. Perhaps Chi

was channeling the reporting in GD-P for a moment.

[Chichiri]

10. Yep. Bernie's target in MP was 3, he got 2. nt

[kydo]

6. WTF? Someone attacker racers and their dogs during the Iditarod?

That is messed up!

RIP Nash

[Blue Idaho]

7. Another brick in the wall...

Thank you for providing these updates, they are appreciated.

[livetohike]

9. Thanks for today's update Chi. Sad for Jeff and and Nash.

What is wrong with people? .

[Chichiri]

11. Jeff King thinks it has to do with substance abuse.

It's pretty endemic in rural Alaska. He's really broken up about it, but he's continuing the race.

Aliy Zirkle is PISSED.

Right now she's in second place.

[livetohike]

12. I live in rural PA. It's a huge problem here too. Meth labs all over the place. Young people with no

teeth .

[Firebrand Gary]

13. K&R

Thank you Chichiri for all that you do!