IF HRC wins FL, OH, & NC it will be a very good night

[book_worm]

even if Illinois and Missouri were to go narrowly to Bernie.

First, Florida is looking good. It is a closed primary and lots of early votes have already been cast and most polls show that HRC is leading. NBC and CBS both have polls out today with HRC having a substantial lead of better than 20 points.

Ohio--NBC has a poll with HRC up by 20 & CBS by 9. My feeling is that CBS is closer to the truth.

North Carolina--so far the polls have been very good here, too, for HRC and Bernie has pretty much ceded the state.

Why we should be pleased with winning these three states? 1) In the General Election Florida and Ohio are always considered the key swing states and if HRC wins them both (no matter how narrowly) then she has bragging rights. 2) North Carolina has been very competitive as well in the last couple of elections and it is African-American voters who accomplish that--HRC is going to do very well with this group in NC on Tuesday.

Now as for Illinois--NBC has HRC up by 5 and CBS down by 2--so it looks like it will likely be very close. It comes down to GOTV. We need to get out a strong African-American turnout. The CBS poll had turnout among AA in their poll at only 14%. In 2008 it was 23%. If we can get it up to the high teens or 20% of the democratic electorate HRC might win. On the other hand--the kids in Illinois, particularly, Chicago, are enthused because Trump is labeling Bernie and his supporters as the reason for the recent riot at his Chicago rally & so that is getting a lot of play. Furthermore, Illinois will be with the Democratic nominee, no matter who, in November.

Missouri--The only poll I've seen from this state recently came out yesterday and gave HRC a 7-point lead. Again, I think MO is going to be close. There are fewer African-American voters and it's close to states like Kansas where Bernie has performed well before. I'm not saying we won't win it, but it will, I think, be very close.

Long story short--we will no doubt end the night winning more delegates than Bernie--no matter what. Other than that it comes down to GOTV.

[book_worm]

1. It's also worth remembering that in 2008 HRC won only 32% of the vote in IL

yes, it was against Obama, but still she will do substantially better than that this year.

[DemonGoddess]

3. Yes, except

they were both far ahead of the rest of the field. so that's honestly a very good thing.

[Metric System]

2. Winning Florida is very important symbolically.

[MSMITH33156]

4. Winning States

is for the talking heads. This is about margins. Lots of delegate rich states on Tuesday, and if she comes out with more delegates than him, in a race she is already up 60-40 in, then it's a great night.

He'll start to whittle that down a bit over the next month in a string of states friendly to him, but it won't ever get close unless he cuts the lead on Tuesday.

[MarianJack]

5. I'm still hoping for...

...a 5-0 night!

PEACE!

[Chichiri]

6. Let's GOTV in Ohio and Illinois! nt

[Blue Idaho]

7. With every Tuesday HRC extends her lead.

Making the likelihood of a Sanders nomination just that much less likely.

I'll take that.

[Kaleva]

8. Bernie is worse off then before the primaries started

Right before Iowa, Bernie had to get just over 50% of the delegates in order to win the nomination. Now he has to get about 55% of the remaining delegates. The math just keeps getting harder and harder for Bernie.

[Blue Idaho]

9. Why does math

Hate Bernie Sanders?

[MSMITH33156]

10. I did some quick math

I know there is a very good, daily state of the primary thread that does all the math, but I wanted to extend that a bit just to see what future results could produce.

If Hillary wins 50% of the delegates on Tuesday (an awful night for her), then Sanders will need to win 56% percent of the remaining delegates to pass her in pledged delegates.

The 538 projections have Hillary picking up 59.87% of delegates on Tuesday. If that happens, Sanders will need to win 59% of the remaining delegates to pass her in pledged delegates.

I think we all thing 538 is overestimating Hillary's support quite a bit (particularly in Illinois). So let's just split the difference...at 55% on Tuesday, Sanders needs to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates.

This is shaping up quite nicely. Especially in context. Because out of the remaining delegates after Tuesday, 56% come from just California, New York, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Now, Bernie might win some of those states (he won't win New York). But even if he does, there is no chance he blows all of those out. If he does really well in those states, and takes 53% of the delegates there (again, this is lights out for him because he is winning states with a huge minority population. This is more unlikely than his Michigan win, for example, which has more favorable Demographics than any of these states for him).

But, let's suspend disbelief and say he has some sort of major turnaround and starts winning states less favorable than Michigan by margins significantly greater than in Michigan and hits that 53% number on those 5 big states? What does that do to the math?

That means that on Tuesday, if Hillary gets:

50%, Sanders needs 59%
55%, Sanders needs 62%
60%, Sanders needs 66%

So, we're looking at the end-game here. Even if Tuesday doesn't go great, the fact that the most delegates remaining are sitting in prime country for us where Bernie won't be able to at the very least run up large margins, which narrows his path significantly. We're in great shape already, and can add to that on Tuesday. Even if Bernie has another "miracle" night, we'll actually move closer to the nomination.

[jmowreader]

12. You really have to wonder what Bernie's calculus is

The BEST he can possibly do on Tuesday is Michigan redux in IL and MO, Massachusetts redux in Ohio, and South Carolina redux in NC and FL. He MUST have an overwhelming blowout in all five states - a result I think he'll get a week later in Idaho and Utah, but if he sweeps both states the most he can get is 56 delegates.

This race is over on April 26.