STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 13, 2016

[Chichiri]

Last edited Sun Mar 13, 2016, 06:32 PM - Edit history (1)

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,231, Sanders 576 (Clinton +655).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 776, Sanders 551 (Clinton +225).
Versus Targets: Clinton 776/685 (+91), Sanders 551/642 (-91).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
March 12 (MP): Clinton 4, Sanders 2 (Clinton +2).
Versus Targets: Clinton 4/3 (+1), Sanders 2/3 (+1).


Next Primary: March 15

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.



Comments
With twenty-one states and two territories now having voted, the various organizations' reports of the pledged delegate counts have begin to diverge, because the individual state counts are estimates. Hillary, for example, has 148 delegates from Texas according to FiveThirtyEight, but 147 according to the New York Times. The final delegate count will become more accurate after the county conventions are held this coming Saturday, and should be finalized at the state convention on June 16-18.

The Times' pledged delegate count is Hillary 766, Bernie 551. The count for Bernie is the same, while the count for Hillary is ten delegates fewer than FiveThirtyEight's. Obviously the Times has not allocated ten delegates; my best guess is that certain district-level delegate allocations are, by their reckoning, too close to call (but possibly they simply haven't updated certain states since shortly after their primary).

I am continuing to use FiveThirtyEight's count, not because it's biased for Hillary, but simply to maintain consistency with their targets. I am virtually certain that, by the time all the states and territories have voted, the differences in delegate counts will not be large enough to make a difference to the outcome.



How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.


Iditarod Update
Mitch Seavey out of Unalakleet at 05:14, Dallas Seavey 05:25, Brent Sass at 05:29, Aliy Zirkle at 06:42. Seaveys about to enter Shaktoolik.

[Her Sister]

1. we are good!

thank you. Can't wait for next Wednesday

[Blue Idaho]

2. Thanks for the updates!

With each primary the gate swings closed just a little bit more.