Polls from Ohio, Missouri, Illinois, Florida & N Carolina

[Fla Dem]

[Jackie Wilson Said]

1. I heard people in Ohio, democrats, are switching to R so they can vote for Kasich

or against Trump.

The theory being that Kasich can win there, as it is his state.

I dont have stats or links, just something I have heard.

I dont like that for two reasons, I think they should be voting for their candidate and I thought we could do better against Trump in the general, Kasich is dangerous and he is very rightwing.

The one person I heard say this was a Hillary supporter, which makes even less sense to me as the race is relatively close there with Bernie, right?

[romana]

3. That says to me

That says to me that when you get right down to it, people don't really see much of a difference between Clinton and Sanders, despite all the bluster about how they are night and day.

[Fla Dem]

5. Yes, party switching can be a dangerous and foolish tactic.

Your "real" candidate may need all the votes they can get. To try and finagle the results can backfire. I also heard in other open primary states, Republicans were voting for BS because they saw him as the easier candidate to beat; which could explain Bernies narrow win in Michigan.

[anotherproletariat]

9. Exactly. My brother in Michigan had repub friends who were doing just this.

They really want to run against BS because they think they can beat him much more easily. Remember, even though polls show Sanders ahead of various repub candidates, he has not been on the receiving end of ANY negative ads. There are many, many possible avenues for attack against him, and those polls will change rapidly.

[MSMITH33156]

7. I actually think this might help us in Ohio overall

There might be some Democratic crossover, but I'm hoping a majority of independents choose to vote in the Republican primary as a pro-Kashich/anti-Trump move.

Among Democratic voters, Hillary whips Bernie. Even in states she loses. For example, in Michigan, she won 59% of the Democratic vote.

So, while there might be some Democratic crossover, and that could cannibalize her vote, stands to reason there would be a lot more independents choosing to vote for the native son on the Republican side, which helps us.

[Her Sister]

19. makes sense!

..................

[pkdu]

2. I predict Hillary wins delegate count big and popular vote tonight

450-200 or so on delegates ...and Sanders crew will say "its a moral victory" and "the rest of the states are all ours"

[liberal N proud]

6. The BSers will claim fraud in any state they don't win

[shenmue]

8. Oh yeah

[fleabiscuit]

12. DUCK!

[bluestateguy]

20. Right! Because Diebold is in the tank for Hillary

[pandr32]

4. Thanks for posting this!

Looking good! What a day--hopefully I will be able to do my version of the end zone dance several times!

[fleabiscuit]

11. I think I'm going to have to steal that dance. :-)

[pandr32]

15. Great! We will be dancing together!!!

[Fla Dem]

14. I think we could narrowly lose Missouri and Indiana.

Last edited Tue Mar 15, 2016, 01:53 PM - Edit history (1)

But HRC wins big in Florida and NC, narrow win in Illnois. As all are proportional delegate states, I think HRC will pick up 60-75% of the total delegates. Total available 792: HRC 475-594.

[pandr32]

16. 60-75% is worthy of lots of dancing!

[fleabiscuit]

10. Looks like a good chance for a HRC sweep of the day.

Nate Silver has in interesting article up too...

Can Bernie Sanders Pull Off An Upset In Ohio?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-bernie-sanders-pull-off-an-upset-in-ohio/

[MSMITH33156]

13. Very interesting

I'd tend to more favor the demographic model because of Michigan, but in either case, I think the headline is I'd much rather be us than them.

[Treant]

17. Possible!

I still only credit her with 3 out of 5 because I hate being disappointed. If it ends up being 5-0 in her favor you'll hear me tap dancing from several states away.

And I can't tap dance, so you might want to wear ear muffs.

[Fla Dem]

18. I'll be dancing right along with you!

[consciouslocs]

21. How is turnout in

Ohio? Most of the crossover voting reports appears to be people who have been registered Democrats, but voting Republican prior to this election. I think the Mayor in Chicago might hurt her chances, unless she does better outside of the city.