50% Of The Vote In Arizona Already Banked... And It Favors Hillary!

[MrWendel]

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/3/18/1503342/-50-Of-The-Vote-In-Arizona-Already-Banked-And-It-Favors-Hillary

By DCMorgan1972DEM



Hello Friends!

Yesterday I wrote a diary looking at the limited polling that is available in Arizona that shows Clinton with a formidable lead. There is new information out today that brings new data to our analysis as to where Arizona is likely to end up for Hillary. And it looks very promising…

Check Out This Link:

www.politico.com/...

This is the passage that stands out to me:

“Early voting, which in Arizona starts about two weeks before the primary election, may hold some clues as to the eventual outcome. The numbers have offered some positive signs for Clinton: According to figures provided by the Arizona Democratic Party, of the 601,049 early ballot requests, 262,547 were returned, with 121,374 from voters 65 and over and another 75,504 from voters between the ages 50-64. Both age groups have been friendly to Clinton in other states.

By contrast, just 18,842 ballots have been returned from voters between the ages of 25 to 34 and 8,959 from voters between 18 and 24 – ominous signs for Sanders, who runs best among younger voters.”

In the 2008 primary 455,000 Democrats voted in Arizona. That means it is likely 50% of the vote has already been banked in Arizona. And of that 50% that has been returned 75% of those votes are ages 50 and above… a demographic that is EXTREMELY favorable to Hillary.

I also believe the Tuesday sweep will help last minute deciders break to Hillary’s favor.. or the margins to at least remain close.

Keeping all of this in kind… I think we could be looking at a 20+ point win for Hillary.

I’m looking forward to see how this plays out!

[lamp_shade]

1. 538 hasn't made a prediction, but their poll tracking gives her an avg 29 pt lead.

[Walk away]

2. I'm waiting for Sanders to announce that people who vote early shouldn't count....

And they should be put in the same category as Women, voters from Southern states and anyone over 50.

[fleabiscuit]

9. That made me laugh out loud!

I needed that. Thanks.

[hrmjustin]

3. But the Sanders winning tour was starting now.

[workinclasszero]

7. I hope it all goes like Arizona!

[MrWendel]

4. Just waiting for the ...

Arizona was going to the Republicans anyway meme.

[Mosby]

5. I'm on my phone, but go to the arizona republic

Last edited Fri Mar 18, 2016, 07:44 PM - Edit history (1)

Website and read the oped about trump.

Pretty epic.

Edit:

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/editorial/2016/03/18/john-kasich-republican-endorsement/81884800/

[DawgHouse]

11. Link

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2016/03/18/roberts-donald-trump-whats-not-love/81939354/

[sweetloukillbot]

13. I worked at the Republic for 10 years

That is a surprising read actually. The editorial board were pretty hardcore right wing. They even endorsed Lieberman in 2004, specifically because he was the most like a Republican. And Lieberman trotted that damn endorsement out at every opportunity - I think it was the only one he received...

[shenmue]

6. "Arizona really was a gas..."

Scorpions.

[Thinkingabout]

8. I am thinking the undecided will start falling to Hillary. Also some of the

Super delegates will follow suit, President Obama and VP Biden will be on board soon also.

[CalvinballPro]

10. I'm looking forward to seeing the adjusted margin Sanders needs to win by after missing AZ's mark

It's 60% now, which means it could jump anywhere from 2-5% per contest that the benchmark is not met. He'll stumble into NY needing an 80% win at this rate.

[Walk away]

15. And NY is a closed primary for DEMOCRATS only!!!

And I believe you have to have registered as a Democrat at least a month before the primary. AND it's one of Hillary's home states (she hasn't lost one yet). She was a very popular Senator.
Bernie is toast in New York!

[CalvinballPro]

17. Only something like 2 maybe 3 open primaries left between now and the end of the primary

Everything else will be closed to registered Democrats. And let's be honest, if you can't even bother to register as a Democrat to support Sanders, you probably wouldn't have bothered coming out to vote for him anyway.

[Walk away]

19. My state is last...he he limps into NJ we will put him on the throughway....

and point him towards Ben & Jerry's corporate headquarters! He'll need a part time job.

[CalvinballPro]

21. I'm from NJ too, can't wait to vote.

I've been to the Ben & Jerry's factory; Bernie will enjoy working there. :-D

[LannyDeVaney]

12. Well, I guess Sanders will say Arizona is in the South, which apparently is anything below Canada...

Mrs. Clinton has the sunscreen they need to protect against the bern.

[book_worm]

14. I hope so because Hillary is hardly campaigning there

and Bernie is holding one event after another. I think it will be much closer than the most recent poll indicated.

[Walk away]

16. You mean like making a fool of himself on TV and sending Jane out to...

brunch with one of the biggest racists in the country??? I think the people who saw that news clip outnumber his stadium crowds about 100 to one.

I think we have this one.

[book_worm]

18. I didn't say we wouldn't

I just said it will be closer than that poll indicated.

[Walk away]

20. I was just trying to reassure you....

[riversedge]

22. Bill C. will be in Pheonix and Tuscon stumped for Hillary tomorrow