Reality

[BainsBane]

Earned delegates

HRC 1223
BS 920
sum +303 for HRC

Total Delegates

HRC 1690
BS 946

+744 for HRC

2383 needed for nomination

653 for HRC to win nomination. 1437 for BS to win nomination

2129 remaining delegates. HRC needs 30.6% of the remaining delegates for nomination. BS needs 67.4%

[livetohike]

1. It's over. I wish people would stop flooding my

Facebook feed with stories on how Bernie could still win.

[pandr32]

22. Oh Gawd--me too!

[MSMITH33156]

23. This times 1000

He'll stay in until the convention, even though it's long been over. I don't have a problem with that. It's his right. His reasons aren't altruistic. He's an attention whore, and he's going to soak it up.

But can people STOP pretending like he can win? It's beyond annoying. The media, everyone..."well, if he just wins 100% of the vote on Saturday, it'll cut into her delegate lead, then momentum..." momentum is not a thing. Demographics drive this. And on April 19th and 26th there are 631 delegates in mostly closed primaries. He's going to get slaughtered. But for the next month, we're going to have everyone pretend that him feebly whittling down her delegate lead actually matters? SO ANNOYING.

Bernie can do whatever he wants, but the media pretending there is a viability here because horse race = ratings is just ridiculous.

[Fla Dem]

25. Promises, promises, promises....

First he promises amazing social changes that even he knows he can't deliver. Now he promises them he'll win the primary. At what point will he abandon the sinking ship and leave all his followers thrashing in the sea looking for a life vest?

[Iliyah]

2. BUT, BS is gonna win all the remaining states by blowouts!

[LuvLoogie]

3. Nate currently has it as Hillary 1229, Bernie 933.

So he got it below 300 to a 294 delegate deficit.

So tired of her getting trashed on this Democratic site.

[BainsBane]

4. These numbers are from the NYTimes

Politico and the Washington Post have the same, but I did the calculations last night. Still, I checked the Times before I posted and the count is the same. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html

[LuvLoogie]

5. Do the news sites have all delegates accounted for?

Is Nate more up to date, perhaps? I'll have to check the state sites. I would assume they would be the most accurate.

[BainsBane]

6. I really don't know

Though a handful of delegates doesn't do much to improve his chances.

[LuvLoogie]

9. Yes. Not much difference.

But it means the anti-Hillary coalition might have hit their "had to" for the night.

[BainsBane]

11. He hit the target numbers that 538 sets out

based on their model, but they haven't adjusted that since first doing the model. It doesn't address the percentage of delegates from here on out that he needs to win the nomination. The NYTimes has a delegate tracker that does that, but they haven't updated the Democratic side for the 3/22 results. As of 3/15, he needed 62% of earned delegates to reach half of all those earned delegates to be allotted. But even that wouldn't be enough for nomination because the requirement is 2383, which requires super delegates as well as earned delegates.

[LuvLoogie]

13. 62%? I thought it was 58%. I know Nate generated those targets.

And that they aren't adjusted. Nate has Bernie at 76 delegates (target+2) and Hillary at 55 delegates (target-2). 76/131 is 58%.

But I don't know what 58% versus 62% means for Bernie's "must do" on any given primary night going forward.

March 15th was huge for Hillary. If she can keep Bernie in the mid 50s through the next couple of voting nights, I'll be less OCD about this. I'm afraid I'm a political junkie.

[BainsBane]

15. Not according to the Times

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/16/upshot/clinton-sanders-democratic-delegate-lead.html

You should expect him to win Washington by a significant margin. He may also win Wisconsin, but he will NOT win New York.

[LuvLoogie]

18. I like 62% way better. Do you suppose Bernie's being from Brooklyn

will help him more than Bernie making his political career outside of Brooklyn will hurt him?

[BainsBane]

20. No. Clinton was their

Senator and Bernie hasn't lived in NY in a half century. Also his anti Wall Street mantra is likely to go over less successfully in a state where that sector is a major employer.

NY is also a diverse state with a closed primary system, both of which favor Clinton.

[Treant]

7. But math is cold!

I'm still trying to come to grips with the fact that they don't realize that differing opinions exist and that, having heard the bern, some of us are unconvinced or simply don't care for the message (or the messengers, sometimes).

[LisaM]

14. And now the campaign is suing the DNC ---

neat trick - steal data, then sue the organization you stole it from. Hopefully this will get laughed out of court, if it gets that far.

[mcar]

8. Feel the Math, baby!

[Chichiri]

10. #feelthemath

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. Thank You! n/t

[Walk away]

16. Over on the "Other Side" they are desperately dreaming of Hillary being indicted!!!!

The emails are their last hope (or so the mistakenly believe). They are so abjectly deluded, filled with hate and childish!

[BainsBane]

17. Winning at all costs

subverting the popular vote, no problem.

[Cha]

19. Beauty! I love it!

Mahalo BB!

[DemonGoddess]

21. K&R!

[UtahLib]

24. They avoid math like the plague.

[Basic LA]

26. Can't help but wonder...

...what the Republicans would have thrown at Bernie in the form of opposition research, or swift-boating, had he won the nomination. We'll never know. Meanwhile, Hillary is attacked from both sides.