Bernie Sanders Continues To Dominate Caucuses, But He’s About To Run Out Of Them

[Iamaartist]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-continues-to-dominate-caucuses-but-hes-about-to-run-out-of-them/

Bernie Sanders won a trifecta of states on Saturday. He put up big victories in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington, after carrying Idaho and Utah earlier in the week. Sanders beat his delegate targets by a solid margin in all five of these states and closed Hillary Clinton’s pledged delegate lead to just north of 225.1 In doing so, Sanders highlighted an ongoing Clinton weakness: caucuses. All five of Sanders’s wins this week came in caucuses. The problem for the Sanders campaign is that there are only two caucuses left on the Democratic primary calendar.

[Iamaartist]

1. Something To Think about .......About To Run Out Of Them

[SaschaHM]

2. Harry ...

must be bracing for some hate tweets.

[George II]

3. Actually there are five remaining caucuses, but only two in states - the other three are....

....in territories.

Wyoming and North Dakota are the states (32 total delegates), and Guam, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

Not many left to play to his strengths, which are very small caucus states/territories.

Where he's been weak has been larger primary states with large urban areas, and there are several of them left - New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and California.

[Iamaartist]

4. Thank-you for that information .....

[George II]

5. I also meant to add that in the General Election there are no caucus states...

....

[Iamaartist]

6. General Election.... Great

[KitSileya]

33. Yeah, he "knew things would improve when we moved West."

As in, when they moved to whiter states. Now, however, regardless of what Jane Sanders said about states with diverse populations, they have very few states where they will win, and practically none where they will win in the order of magnitude he needs. After his landslides two days ago, his needed percentages shifted just a few percentage points, from 58% to 56.5%.

[Thinkingabout]

7. Ron Paul targeted the caucus states and gained delegates but I have not heard

Of President Ron Paul.

[Iamaartist]

12. I tried to found something on this not as yet Thank you also for your information...

[Thinkingabout]

15. Here is a link which may help

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paul_presidential_campaign,_2008

It is the path of a libertarian candidate, he would try to load the caucus states to gain delegate counts.

[ucrdem]

17. Yep.

We keep hearing what an amazing truth-telling progressive he is but listen to him talk and it's all Dem-bash all the time. Are there any of his lines that aren't retooled RW talking points?

[Thinkingabout]

19. He always said he did not vote for any spending. He got a lot of pork

Back to his district by attaching ear marks to bills he knew was going to pass and then he would vote against the bill. Like lying by omission. There are several chemical plants which was in his district but he was know for bringing home the money. He wanted to audit the feds, complained about money spent but when he traveled it was not preplanned so his flights was top dollar and he flew home every weekend. His constituents was never going to vote him out, he took care of them with tax payer projects. Sounds like a repeat of his campaign.

[ucrdem]

20. LOL, that's our Bernie.

He's a clever one. Did the same with AUMF and TPP come to think of it -- voted to fund the DOD the same day he valiantly voted against the AUMF and met with the US trade rep repeatedly to cut deals for Vermont while complaining loudly that it was a big secret conspiracy and no one but Obama and his corporate cronies could see it

[Iamaartist]

32. Thank-you very much...

[Her Sister]

8. Aha! Was waiting for 538 to comment!

Sanders’s strength in caucuses may also be, in part, coincidental. Every state that has held or will hold a Democratic caucus this year has a black population at or below 10 percent of the state’s total population, and black voters have been among Clinton’s strongest demographic groups. Without those black voters, Clinton just can’t match the enthusiasm of Sanders’s backers. (In Southern states, where Clinton romped, her voters were far more enthusiastic than Sanders’s supporters were.)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-continues-to-dominate-caucuses-but-hes-about-to-run-out-of-them/

[Iamaartist]

11. Thank-you Her Sister

[stopbush]

9. If Bernie's recent victories meant anything

I'd expect to see uncommitted super delegates flocking to endorse him.

Hasn't happened. Won't happen.

[Iamaartist]

10. Right you are wont happen !!!!!

[R B Garr]

13. There's also some shenanigans with Trump in the

picture. Trump is so unique and polarizing that it looks like there is some mix-up and crossover gong on that is far out of the ordinary.

[Iamaartist]

14. Shenanigans

Some how I also think there is some shenanigans going with Bernie to....

[R B Garr]

35. +1, absolutely. I already posted that I saw a guy on CNN saying he only voted for Bernie

because he wanted to stop Trump, but he initially liked Trump (he looked positively....agitated, best word I can think of...). Posts get hidden here if you state the truth about Trump and Sanders supporters having crossover appeal, but it's the truth and the media acknowledges it, Sanders himself said as much, and some people here have said their platforms intersect (but they think they are going after the right kind of Trump voter, lol) . But you can't say that here....

You are right. Shenanigans in both....

Hence some of the weird caucus results...

[shenmue]

16. It's kind of odd that he seems to win biggest only in places that have loopy systems like caucuses

In big states with regular primaries, he stalls.

[sister_rosa_refried]

18. The caucuses are total crap.

I hope my comment doesn't offend or "embarrass"

[Jamaal510]

39. I'm not offended.

I wholeheartedly agree.

[CajunBlazer]

21. In order, Sander's favorite nomination contests

Last edited Mon Mar 28, 2016, 12:15 AM - Edit history (1)

1) Open Caucuses (favorite)

2) Closed Caucuses

3) Open Primaries

4) Mixed Primaries

5) Closed Primaries (least favorite)

Obviously Sanders does better in open contest because independents have be lining up to vote for him. However, I don't think many of them are the kind of people that we think of as independents - middle of the road people who don't want to belong to either party.

I think that a lot of them are the kind of independents who are too liberal to be Democrats. The rest of them are the kind of independents that are sick and tired of gridlock in Washington, but would never vote for Trump.

[Princess Turandot]

22. Typo: #5 should say 'closed'? nt

[CajunBlazer]

24. You're right - thanks - corrected

[robbedvoter]

23. Enten got trolled big time

for posting this. Math is evil!

[nygurl]

25. Caucus report

A friend of mine was making calls to Hillary voters in Washington, trying to get them to attend caucuses. Over and over women said they didn't want to subject themselves to hours of rude pushy young white boys lecturing them on Bernie's fabulousness and Hillary's horrors. So they didn't go.
The most undemocratic type of voting, caucuses are highly evolved forms of voter suppression. Unless you're young and privileged, you need to leave your job for hours, with money for transportation, money for child care, and the stomach for confrontation.

[kjones]

26. Kind of funny (in a sad way) that the activities of a caucus in one state...

would probably be voter suppression and forbidden within x00 feet of
a polling place in primary states.

[SunSeeker]

27. Exactly. Caucuses enable bullies to suppress the votes of working people and parents.

I imagine the Democratic Party will rethink caucuses for future primaries.

[uppityperson]

28. To be fair, in WA, you can send in a form by mail to have your caucus vote counted

We had quite a few of those in our group. I found out about this in a mailing I got from Bill Clinton. It was also on the WA voters website, on their caucus page.

[LisaM]

29. But there were only a limited number of reasons

I know a lot of people who dreaded bring around the bros. Everyone I know who was for Hillary was was dreading going and that includes men. It's intimidation.

[ucrdem]

36. Thanks and welcome to DU!

[nygurl]

38. glad to be here, thanx! n/t

[Basic LA]

30. They're saying Hawaii is majority POC!

Pacific Islanders are POC? Or do the Berners mean people with suntans?

[Cha]

31. The kids were out voting for him.. signing up as Dems on the 26th.. I saw them

in action.

[DemonGoddess]

34. Exactly

[ucrdem]

37. All part of the Devine plan.

Barf and thumbsdown to bad doggies.