STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 6, 2016

[Chichiri]

62 Days to California, 13 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,298, Sanders 1,089 (Clinton +209).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,767, Sanders 1,120 (Clinton +647).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.8% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

Wisconsin (April 5): Sanders 47, Clinton 36 (Sanders +11); 3 not yet allocated.
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 47/50 (-3), Clinton 36/36 (+0).


Next Primary: April 9

Wyoming: 14 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 11, Clinton 3.



Comments
Bernie's target in Wisconsin was 50 delegates; he will either meet that target or come up between one and three delegates short. So at best, you can say that Wisconsin didn't hurt him any. Now on to New York by way of Wyoming.

I consider New York to be more or less neutral ground. On the one hand, Bernie was born and grew up in Brooklyn, and appeals to its large population of white young folks. On the other hand, New York is Hillary's home state by choice, and has a closed primary: only Democrats can vote in New York, and the deadline for registering as a Democrat was two weeks ago. Hillary's edge with Democrats is as large as Bernie's is with independents.

If Bernie can win New York, we can safely say that he's once again competitive in this primary. If not, we can safely say he isn't.

Speaking of New York, Bernie's interview with the New York Daily News editorial board is gaining wider awareness, which is very bad news for Bernie's chances with undecideds (and would be even worse news for him in the general, should he win the nomination). Here's a quick summary of that interview:

New York Daily News: Does the Fed actually have the authority to break up banks?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: How will that policy survive legal challenges?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: What laws did the CEOs actually break?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: How far do you want Israel to pull back their settlements?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: What should they have done differently in 2014?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: What's wrong with Palestine using the ICC?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: Is Obama doing the right thing about ISIS?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: How would you get information from captured ISIS commanders?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: How do you ride the subway in D.C.?

Bernie: That's easy, you just insert your token and you get in.

NYDN: They haven't used tokens in over a decade.

Bernie: Oh. Then I don't know.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
Claustrophobes think better outside the box!



.

[LAS14]

1. Who knew I'd suddenly think highly of the NYDN!

[CalvinballPro]

2. GDP has been tearing the interview down and snidely questioning its value all day.

I think they realize that it hurts Sanders very badly in the NY media market.

[Walk away]

3. Did you see this morning's NYDN cover??? Full page anti- Bernie on his position on Gun Control....

He (or one of his minions) must have done something to make the entire paper really pissed off. They are finally vetting him and it looks as if they are going to keep at it right through the NYS primary. They haven't endorsed yet but I am sure they will come out strong for Hillary right before the primary. Their daily edition alone has more than a half a million papers a day in circulation. It's the Democrats daily local news in NY.

[geek tragedy]

4. guns and Israel are going to be his major weaknesses here

I support him on the latter but not the former, but not gonna shed any tears on his behalf.

[Tarheel_Dem]

5. I guess the NYDN discovered what we already knew. "There's just no there...there".

What an embarrassment for someone who's been on the Hill for decades. If the BS'ers were capable of shame, I'd think even they can see that this man is nowhere near prepared for the highest office in the land. Nowhere! Near!