STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 10, 2016

[Chichiri]

58 Days to California, 9 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,308, Sanders 1,096 (Clinton +212).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,777, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +650).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.6% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.



Comments
I was surprised. Were you surprised?

Something tells me the folks on the ground in Wyoming weren't that surprised. Thanks to their efforts, of the eight states of the Sanders Tunnel, Sanders won only six. Six and a half, if you feel like being generous. The media, and certainly Sanders' supporters, are painting Wyoming as a victory, because he did handily win the popular vote -- but if that's the metric that counts, Hillary, not President Obama, should have been the nominee in 2008!

Now we're out of the tunnel, and back into states where, at best for Sanders, he and Hillary are in a real horse race. So let's consider some scenarios for New York.

First, because I'm still a pessimist, let's look at what I think is a worst-case scenario: Sanders takes 60% of the vote. He will gain 148 delegates to Hillary's 99, will exceed his target by 20 delegates, and his magic number -- the percentage of remaining delegates he needs, currently 56.5% -- drops to 55.9%. (Frankly, if he can average 60% in all remaining states, he's got this in the bag, so it's not much use worrying about this one.)

If Sanders gets 55%, he will gain 136 delegates to Hillary's 111, exceeding his target by 8. However, his magic number goes up to 56.7%. So it's either better or worse for him, depending on which metric you look at.

Say there's a tie -- we'll give Sanders the odd delegate, so it's 124 to Hillary's 123. He comes in 4 delegates under target, and his magic number goes up to 57.6%. Bad news either way.

Say Sanders gets 48%. He gets 119 delegates to Hillary's 128. Nine delegates under target, and his magic number is 57.9%.

Finally, and this is the best scenario I dare consider, say Sanders gets 45%. Sanders gets 111 delegates to Hillary's 136. Seventeen delegates behind target, and his magic number is now 58.5%. So he'll be back to where he was before the Ides of March, or even a bit worse off, with most of his best states behind him.

Bernie is a New York native, but Hillary is well-loved there, and it's a closed primary. Don't count Sanders out of winning New York -- but don't bet the farm on it, either.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
The coffee at the mechanics' shop is break fluid!

[question everything]

1. Thank you. I got my first news of the morning from the local station

before I picked the paper. "Sanders win!"

I was not sure where the primaries were - been under the weather recently - but still..

[Treant]

2. I've been waiting for this today

Ah, sweet, sweet delegate math.

I do think Clinton will win NY with an absolute floor of +5, and that's being extraordinarily pessimistic about her performance. No matter how the Vatican thing plays out, Bernie either loses time campaigning or shine when he cancels.

That NYDN article hurt, and the Philadelphia Inquirer one is no better. His continued refusal to release his taxes is wearing away at his halo as well.

I'm going to be very interested in upcoming New York polls to see the trends (PA as well), and attached to the results on the 19th and 26th.

[yallerdawg]

3. It was close to a 60/40 split...

against Obama in 2008. Bernie is no Obama!

Bernie is now saying New York is not that critical to his path to convention victory.

Really?

[Treant]

4. "Fascinating."

In what statistical Universe is a huge state not important for his chances? Or is he banking on a 70-30 win in California?

By the time he gets there, Clinton may only need to reach the threshold of viability.

[2naSalit]

6. I think he and

the drumpf have similar strategies of accosting delegates and super delegates during the convention hoping to "flip" them with their charming tactics.

[IamMab]

8. Sanders has developed a bit of a forked tongue of late. He and his campaign are often at odds on

messaging. Whether that is by accident or design does not matter, as it looks bad in either case.

[yallerdawg]

9. I think it is all about keeping the donations rolling in now.

The 'campaign' can go on as long as the money does.

If the 'candidate' can raise more money by going negative on Hillary, get ready for negative!

If the money starts to dry up, we can expect a 'graceful' exit.

[ismnotwasm]

5. I just read that The Sanders campaign kind of bungled Wyoming

Concentrating mostly on a single, populous county instead of the entire state.

[2naSalit]

7. He wasn't likely

to do very well in a state that is heavily dependent upon oil, coal, gas, timber and some cattle since it's a major "taker state" where nearly everyone in the state is funded by some form of taxpayer subsidy or another... yet all against the gubbamint takeover and wanting to sell off the public lands.