STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Thursday, 3 July 2014

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, 3 July 2014[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 2 July 2014

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 2 July 2014
[center][font color=green]
Dow Jones 16,976.24 +20.17 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,974.62 +1.30 (0.07%)
[font color=red]Nasdaq 4,457.73 -0.92 (-0.02%)


[font color=red]10 Year 2.63% +0.03 (1.15%)
30 Year 3.46% +0.03 (0.87%) [font color=black]


[center][/font]

[HR width=85%]

[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
[center]
(click on link for latest updates)
http://tools.investing.com/market_quotes.php?
[/center]

[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

[/center]

[center]

[/center]

[HR width=95%]

[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
[center]
Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
[/center]

[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
[center]
The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
[/center]

[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
[center]
Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


[/center]

[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
[center]
LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
[/center]

[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
[center]
Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
[/center]

[div]
[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
05/19/14 Credit Suisse, which has an investment bank branch in NYC, agrees to plead guilty and pay appx. $2.6 billion penalties for helping wealthy Americans hide wealth and avoid taxes.








[HR width=95%]


[center]

[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[xchrom]

1. CORPORATIONS ARE PEOPLE? IT'S A REAL LEGAL CONCEPT

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CORPORATIONS_AS_PEOPLE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-07-03-03-09-19


FILE - This June 30, 2014, file photo shows customers walking into a Hobby Lobby store in Oklahoma City. There may be more to that "we the people" notion than you thought.These are boom times for the concept of "corporate personhood." Corporations are people? Mitt Romney got mocked during the 2012 presidential campaign for the very idea. But it turns out the principle has been lurking in U.S. law for more than a century, and the Supreme Court, in a 5-4 ruling, gave it more oomph this week when it ruled that certain businesses are entitled to exercise religious rights just as do people. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- There may be more to that "we the people" notion than you thought.

These are boom times for the concept of "corporate personhood."

Corporations are people?

Mitt Romney got mocked during the 2012 presidential campaign for the very idea.

But it turns out the principle has been lurking in U.S. law for more than a century, and the Supreme Court, in a 5-4 ruling, gave it more oomph this week when it ruled that certain businesses are entitled to exercise religious rights, just as do people.

Justice Samuel Alito, writing for the court's majority, said protecting the religious rights of closely held corporations, which are often small, family-run businesses, "protects the religious liberty of the humans who own and control them."

[xchrom]

2. 32 STATES TRAIL US AS A WHOLE IN JOB RECOVERY

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_LOST_JOBS_STATES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-07-02-16-33-15

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Five years after the Great Recession officially ended, most states still haven't regained all the jobs they lost, even though the nation as a whole has.

In May, the overall economy finally recovered all 9 million jobs that vanished in the worst downturn since the 1930s. Another month of solid hiring is expected in the U.S. jobs report for June that will be released Thursday.

Yet 32 states still have fewer jobs than when the recession began in December 2007 - evidence of the unevenness and persistently slow pace of the recovery.

Even though economists declared the recession over in June 2009, Illinois is still down 184,000 jobs from pre-recession levels. New Jersey is down 147,000. Both states were hurt by layoffs at factories. Florida is down 170,000 in the aftermath of its real estate market collapse.

[xchrom]

3. STOCKS CLOSE AT ALL-TIME HIGHS AS HIRING SURGES

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_WALL_STREET?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-07-02-16-30-20

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks closed at their latest all-time highs Wednesday following news that business hiring surged in June, adding to evidence that the U.S. economy is picking up momentum.

ADP, a payroll processer, said businesses added 281,000 jobs last month, up from 179,000 in the previous month. The figure suggests the government's monthly jobs report, due out Thursday, could also show a significant gain from May.

The stock market climbed back to record levels a day earlier after separate reports showed that manufacturing expanded in China and the U.S., the world's two largest economies.

"We're in the middle of what's been an extended recovery, but there's still a lot of room to go," said Ed Hyland, a global investment specialist at a JPMorgan Private Bank. "We believe that for the stock market as well."

[xchrom]

4. SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS LEARN RECESSION LESSONS

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SMALLBIZ_SMALL_TALK?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-07-02-11-23-45

NEW YORK (AP) -- For some small business owners, the Great Recession turned out to be a lesson in how to run their companies better.

Many owners whose businesses failed during the recession have taken the plunge again, restarting or opening new businesses. But they're not repeating past mistakes. Their companies are leaner, smarter and less risky.

There are no definitive numbers on how many small businesses failed during the recession. But there were 337,303 fewer companies with under 499 employees in 2011 than there were before the recession began, according to the Census Bureau. The government hasn't released more recent statistics, so it's not known how many new companies there are, or how many owners went on to start new businesses.

Here's how some of the companies are making sure they are more recession-resistant:

INTERNET, NOT INVENTORY

Let someone else take the risk. That's the lesson Frank Muscarello learned from the recession, and the strategy he's used in building MarkITx, an online marketplace where companies from Fortune 500 corporations to the smallest businesses can buy and sell refurbished computers, servers and other high-tech equipment.

[xchrom]

5. RECOVERY OF LOST JOBS BY STATES, AT A GLANCE

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_LOST_JOBS_STATES_GLANCE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-07-02-20-51-16


The United States in May finally recovered all the jobs lost to the Great Recession. But 32 states still don't have as many jobs as they did when the recession officially began in December 2007. The rankings from best to worst:

Place Jobs in December 2007 Jobs in May 2014 Percentage change

North Dakota 362,000 462,000 27.6 percent

Texas 10.53 million 11.53 million 9.5 percent

Washington D.C. 700,100 749,300 7.0 percent

[xchrom]

6. SIGNS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH DRIVE COPPER PRICES UP

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_COMMODITIES_REVIEW?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-07-02-16-35-44

Copper closed at its highest price in more than four months on Wednesday as more signs of economic growth pushed prices for the industrial metal up.

Copper for September delivery gained 6 cents, or 1.9 percent, to settle at $3.27 a pound Wednesday. That's the highest price for the metal since February, according to the data provider FactSet.

A report on hiring from ADP, a payroll processor, said private employers added 281,000 workers last month, another sign the US economy is shaking off a winter slump.

Copper prices have climbed 2.9 percent this week following reports of stronger manufacturing activity in China, the world's biggest buyer of copper. The U.S. is the world's second-biggest buyer.

[xchrom]

7. WORLD STOCKS RISE AHEAD OF US JOBS REPORT

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/W/WORLD_MARKETS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-07-03-05-18-27

MUMBAI, India (AP) -- World stock markets mostly gained Thursday ahead of a U.S. jobs report that is expected to show continued employment growth in a positive sign for the world economy.

Economists forecast that the U.S. government's nonfarm payrolls report for June will show employers added 215,000 jobs during the month and that the unemployment rate remained at 6.3 percent, according to financial data provider FactSet. May's job gain meant that U.S. economy, the world's biggest, had finally recovered all the jobs lost to the recession.

In early European trading, Germany's DAX was up 0.4 percent to 9,949.94 and France's CAC-40 rose 0.5 percent to 4,466.28. Britain's FTSE 100 0.3 percent to 6,834.06.

Futures suggested Wall Street might extend gains after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial indexes reached fresh all-time highs on Wednesday. Dow futures were up 0.1 percent and S&P 500 futures were up less than 0.1 percent

[xchrom]

8. GREEKS WARNED TO EXPECT POWER CUTS DURING STRIKE

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GREECE_POWER_STRIKE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-07-03-04-52-05

ATHENS, Greece (AP) -- Greeks have been warned to expect brief power cuts as workers at the Public Power Corporation go on strike to protest government plans to sell part of the company.

The power distribution agency said Thursday that any power cuts would last no more than one hour. No major problems had been reported by mid-morning. A telephone hotline was set up for consumers to check when their areas might experience power cuts.

Public Power Corporation unions have vowed rolling 48-hour walkouts starting Thursday, arguing that electricity is a vital commodity that should stay under state control.

The conservative-led coalition government insists it will carry out the sale, which is among demands by the financially stricken country's international creditors. It is threatening to force strikers back to work with a mobilization order.

[xchrom]

9. Putin’s Economic Push Revives Former Soviet Ties in East Europe

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/putin-s-economic-push-revives-former-soviet-ties-in-east-europe.html

A quarter of a century ago, when the communist regimes in central and eastern Europe tumbled one after another, the economically devastated Soviet Union could do nothing but watch.

The USSR fell apart, and eastern Europeans rushed to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union. In its former sphere of influence, instead of sending troops like it once did, Russia is now building a web of economic ties with its old satellites. Whether it’s bankrolling a Hungarian nuclear power plant or the South Stream pipeline in Bulgaria, Russian money is buying leverage in eastern Europe, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its July 7 edition.

Some countries in the region find it increasingly counterproductive to act against Russia’s interests, even as the nation tangles with Ukraine. Hungarian, Slovak, and Czech politicians have openly opposed stricter EU sanctions against Russia, as they seek to preserve access to its energy resources and consumer market of about 140 million people.

“The Russians are playing a classic game of divide and conquer with the EU,” said Otilia Dhand, an analyst with Teneo Intelligence, a political risk adviser. “They’re making sure that the national interests of individual members have bigger weight in their decision-making than the common EU interest.”

[xchrom]

10. China Seeks Great Power Status After Sea Retreat

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/china-seeks-great-power-status-after-centuries-of-sea-retreat.html



Admiral Zheng He is everywhere in China these days, even though he died almost 600 years ago. The government is promoting him to remind its people -- and Asia -- that China’s destiny is to be a great naval power.

Almost a century before Christopher Columbus discovered America, Zheng in 1405 embarked on a series of voyages with ships of unrivaled size and technical prowess, reaching as far as India and Africa.

The expeditions are in the spotlight in official comments and state media as China lays claim to about 90 percent of the South China Sea and President Xi Jinping seeks to revive China’s maritime pride. In doing so he risks setting up confrontations with Southeast Asian neighbors and the U.S., whose navy has patrolled the region since World War II. Geopolitical dominance of the South China Sea would give China control of one of the world’s most economically and politically strategic areas.

“The Chinese believe they have the right to be a great power,” said Richard Bitzinger, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “What we are seeing is a hardening of China’s stance about its place in the world.”

Stretching from Taiwan toward Singapore, about half of the world’s merchant tonnage flows through the region, carrying about $5.3 trillion of goods each year, from iron ore and oil to computers and children’s toys. Some 13 million barrels of oil a day transited the Straits of Malacca in 2011, about one third of global oil shipments. The sea lanes currently lack a dominant overseer, with the U.S., China and neighboring nations all having a presence.

[xchrom]

11. Goldman’s Buy-China Call Has History on Its Side

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/goldman-s-buy-china-call-has-history-on-its-side.html

Chinese stock bulls, battered by the world’s worst first-half losses, now have history on their side.

While this year’s 3.4 percent drop in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) thwarted optimistic forecasts by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, the second half has proven a much better time to buy during the past decade. The gauge of Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong rose an average 12 percent from July to December, versus a 1.1 percent gain in the first six months.

China’s stock market tends to rally in the second half as the ruling Communist Party takes steps to meet its economic expansion targets, according to RBC Investment Management (Asia) Ltd. Premier Li Keqiang said last month authorities will “ensure” a minimum growth rate of 7.5 percent, while the government has already eased lending restrictions and accelerated state spending plans to counter a property-market slump. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. are all sticking with forecasts for equity gains.

“We expect these Chinese indices to rally in the second half,” Jonathan Garner, the chief Asia and emerging-market strategist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, said by phone yesterday. Monetary easing and government spending will “help investors’ concerns on a hard landing for the property sector and the banking system.”

[xchrom]

12. Krona Plunges on Rates as Europe Stocks Rise, Gold Slides

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/most-asian-futures-rise-before-payrolls-as-copper-slips.html

Sweden’s currency weakened the most since September 2011 and the nation’s bonds rallied after the central bank cut rates more than analysts estimated. European stocks rose while gold and silver declined before U.S. payrolls data and a euro-area monetary-policy decision.

The krona slid 1.8 percent to 9.3232 per euro 9:46 a.m. in London. The yield on the 10-year Swedish bonds dropped four basis points to 1.84 percent. The Aussie slid 0.8 percent versus the dollar after Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the currency was “overvalued” by most measures. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.2 percent for a third day of gains. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slipped less than 0.1 percent after the gauge climbed to a record. Gold retreated 0.5 percent and silver declined 0.6 percent.

Sweden’s Riksbank cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 0.25 percent, while economists had predicted a 25 basis-point reduction. The monthly payrolls report comes after ADP Research Institute data yesterday showed U.S. employment rose in June by the most since 2012, with more workers hired than economists projected. The European Central Bank will probably keep rates unchanged after President Mario Draghi enacted unprecedented stimulus last month, economists said before today’s decision.

[xchrom]

13. Yellen Says Financial Instability Shouldn’t Prompt Rate Change

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/yellen-says-rate-policy-shouldn-t-change-over-stability-concerns.html

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said concerns about financial stability shouldn’t prompt a change in current monetary policy while flagging “pockets of increased risk-taking” in the financial system.

Yellen delivered a comprehensive salvo in the global debate among central bankers over whether interest rates should be a first-order tool to curb financial excess, saying supervision should be “the main line of defense” against turmoil.

“Monetary policy faces significant limitations as a tool to promote financial stability,” Yellen said yesterday at the International Monetary Fund in Washington. “Its effects on financial vulnerabilities, such as excessive leverage and maturity transformation, are not well understood and are less direct than a regulatory or supervisory approach.”

Yellen said the “primary role” should fall to a macroprudential approach, a combination of multiagency oversight, attention to bank capital and liquidity, and regulatory pressure to create buffers against failure.

[xchrom]

14. ECB Watchers in the Dark Look to Draghi for Illumination

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/ecb-watchers-in-the-dark-look-to-draghi-for-illumination.html

Mario Draghi has some explaining to do.

A month after the European Central Bank president unveiled a bevy of standard and non-standard fixes for the euro area’s faltering recovery, economists are in disagreement about how long interest rates will stay near zero and in the dark on the details of a plan to boost lending. Draghi may use today’s appearance in Frankfurt as an opportunity to enlighten them.

As the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England feel their way out of crisis-era support for their economies, the ECB is still steering against the risk of a relapse. Draghi’s guidance -- should he choose to give any -- on how he expects rates to develop over the next two to four years will be crucial in bolstering investors’ optimism that the worst is truly over, while reassuring them that protection won’t be removed before they’re ready.

“My understanding is that Draghi is signaling rates aren’t going to go up before the end of 2016,” said Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “However, the way he has brought the four-year duration of the targeted loans into the equation seems to have been aimed at misdirection, as if he was trying to say rates will stay where they are even longer. But once you start going that far out you lose credibility.”

[xchrom]

15. EU Powers Move Russia and Ukraine Closer on Truce Talks

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/eu-powers-join-russia-ukraine-truce-push-as-deaths-rise.html

Ukraine and Russia pledged to seek a sustainable truce in talks brokered by Germany and France after President Petro Poroshenko resumed his offensive against pro-Russian rebels inspired by Crimea’s secession.

The bloodshed in eastern Ukraine has reached a “dramatic climax” in the past few days, prompting the four countries to pledge to work for a comprehensive cease-fire in another round of talks by July 5, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said after meeting his counterparts in Berlin late yesterday. “It is a first and important step toward a mutual cease-fire,” Steinmeier told reporters.

The four countries agreed to “use their influence on the concerned parties” to end the fighting and invite the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to deploy observers to monitor the checkpoints along the Russia-Ukraine border, according to a joint statement.

With the European Union and the U.S. considering expanding sanctions against Russia, Poroshenko ended the truce early yesterday, blaming pro-Russian insurgents for more than 100 violations in 10 days. The expiration of the cease-fire renews a conflict that has already claimed hundreds of lives. Ukraine and its U.S. and European allies say the separatists in the mainly Russian-speaking regions of Donetsk and Luhansk are backed by Putin’s government, which Russia denies.

[xchrom]

16. Dollar Bulls Practicing Art of Stealth Capitulation

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-03/dollar-bulls-practicing-art-of-stealth-capitulation.html

Strategists are cutting their forecasts on the dollar while still insisting the rally they’ve been denied all year is just around the corner.

Year-end predictions for the benchmark U.S. Dollar Index have dropped to 83.6 from 86.7 in January as the greenback defied estimates and weakened. The bulls remain optimistic, foreseeing an almost 5 percent advance in the index by year-end, while Barclays Plc declared it’s time for the currency to “shine.”

The International Monetary Fund to the Federal Reserve are downgrading estimates for the U.S. economy after it shrank in the first quarter by the most in five years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last month that policy makers remain committed to low interest rates for a “considerable time,” a setback for traders who’d bet borrowing-cost increases would boost the currency.

“The key point is that growth disappointed dramatically in the first quarter,” Steven Saywell, the global head of foreign-exchange strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London, said in a phone interview yesterday. “We’re expecting a pickup from the contraction in the first quarter” with “much stronger” growth in the rest of 2014, he said.

[xchrom]

17. Obama Decries Big Bonuses to Bank Trading Desks as Risky

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-03/obama-decries-big-bonuses-to-bank-trading-desks-as-risky.html

President Barack Obama criticized the bonus-driven culture of financial trading desks at Wall Street banks as a risk to the stability of the financial system.

Obama said in an interview to be aired tomorrow on American Public Media’s Marketplace radio program that an “unfinished piece of business” is to address banks that “take big risks because the profit incentive and the bonus incentive is there for them.”

Obama said banks need to change “how they work internally” to alter incentives for traders.

“Right now, if you are in one of the big banks, the profit center is the trading desk, and you can generate a huge amount of bonuses by making some big bets,” Obama said. In the event of “a really bad bet,” he added, “you might end up leaving the shop, but in the meantime everybody else is left holding the bag.''

[xchrom]

18. China Rate Swaps Climb as Services PMI Advance Signals Recovery

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-03/china-rate-swaps-climb-as-services-pmi-advance-signals-recovery.html


China’s interest-rate swaps rose on signs growth in Asia’s largest economy is recovering.

The services Purchasing Managers’ Index for the nation climbed to 53.1 in June, the highest since March 2013, while the composite PMI rose to 52.4 from 50.2 in May, data released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed today. The official non-manufacturing PMI was 55.0 in June, above the dividing line between expansion and contraction at 50. China is likely to maintain a growth rate of about 7.5 percent this year, Bank of Communications Co. said in a report.

The cost of one-year interest-rate swaps, the fixed payment needed to receive the floating seven-day repurchase rate, climbed three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 3.74 percent as of 4:02 p.m. in Shanghai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 3.78 percent on July 1, the highest since May 20.

“As growth recovers, liquidity in the second half won’t be as loose as in the first,” said Huang Hai, Beijing-based deputy head of the research department at SDIC CGOG Futures Co., a unit of State Development & Investment Corp. “Its natural for interest rates to climb a bit in coming months.”

[xchrom]

19. Americans on the Road Again as Recovery Gains Traction

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/americans-on-the-road-again-as-economic-recovery-gains-traction.html

Traci Butler and her husband cut out vacations after the U.S. recession five years ago. This week, the couple is taking their two boys on a weeklong trip that includes a July 4th visit to the nation’s capital, just a few weeks after touring Italy on their own.

In the aftermath of the recession, “things were much tighter,” said Butler, a special education teacher from Washington, Illinois, whose husband works for construction machinery maker Caterpillar Inc. “We didn’t have bonuses for a while. The last two years have been better.”

About 34.8 million people plan to drive 50 miles or more from home during the five days ending July 6, up from 34.1 million last year and the most since 2007, AAA, the biggest U.S. motoring organization, said June 26. The travel recovery is boosting sales for hotels and attractions, a sign that consumer confidence and consumer spending are on the mend, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

“Stronger business travel and tourism is a very good barometer of the health of the broader economy,” Zandi said. “Spending on travel is more discretionary and expensive. The revival in travel is thus a good sign that the economic recovery is gaining traction.”

[xchrom]

20. Siemens Chasing U.S. Natural-Gas Boom Has ‘Firepower’

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/siemens-chasing-u-s-natural-gas-boom-has-firepower-for-deals.html

Siemens AG (SIE) Chief Executive Officer Joe Kaeser said he’s prepared to make acquisitions to exploit a boom in the U.S. natural-gas industry that will eclipse demand in Europe, where the economy is still struggling to rebound.

As more facilities spring up across the U.S. to extract, transport and store shale oil and gas won from hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, Siemens must keep up to expand its own offering, Kaeser said in an interview yesterday in Frankfurt. Supplying more gas and oil equipment would give the company a lock on lucrative, long-term service contracts, he said.

“Our firepower is huge, obviously, if you look at the liquidity, the cash we generate and the rating we’ve got,” said the CEO, a Siemens veteran who was promoted from finance chief in August last year. “There are great businesses within Siemens which are readily available now to integrate acquisitions. There are others which need to get their house in order first and then we can consider it.”

Siemens displayed its drive to participate in the natural-gas frenzy when the company sought to outbid General Electric Co. (GE) last month for energy assets of Alstom SA (ALO) before the U.S. rival prevailed with a bid favored by the French government and Alstom’s board. Kaeser predicted that the U.S. will buy more gas-powered turbines in a single year than Europe in a decade, and that consolidation in the industry will benefit all players.

[xchrom]

21. An Economy-Watcher’s Guide to Jobs Data: Hiring Breadth, Income

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-03/an-economy-watcher-s-guide-to-jobs-data-hiring-breadth-income.html

Here’s what to look when the Labor Department releases the June U.S. employment report today at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

-- Payrolls and the jobless rate: The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists projects employers added 215,000 workers last month after a 217,000 gain in May. It would mark the fifth consecutive month of payroll gains in excess of 200,000 -- the first time that’s happened since a similar stretch ended in January 2000. The jobless rate is projected to hold at an almost six-year low of 6.3 percent.

-- “If you’re growing at 200,000 jobs per month on a sustained basis, that’s fine,” said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York. “That’s a good number, that’s a healthy number -- particularly given labor force dynamics. The labor force is not growing anywhere close to that. And that’s going to be more than enough to continue lowering the jobless rate over time.”

-- “The risk at this point is that the unemployment rate falls more, and faster, than not only the consensus but more importantly than the Federal Reserve’s central tendency expects,” he said.

-- Central bank policy makers are “paying much more attention to the unemployment rate than to GDP,” he said. “So if the unemployment rate has scope to go down more, and go down faster, then that’s going to present a challenge, particularly to bond-market investors, because it means there’s a re-pricing in order down the road, meaning that the yields go higher.”

[xchrom]

22. Bernanke Joins Obama for Lunch With Economy on Menu

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/bernanke-joins-obama-for-lunch-with-economy-on-menu.html

President Barack Obama sought advice on the economy from former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Ronald Reagan adviser Martin Feldstein at a private White House lunch with mostly conservative-leaning thinkers.

“It’s not a coincidence” that the seven economists invited to the luncheon today were mostly considered conservatives, said White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest.

“He’s willing to consider new ideas,” Earnest said of the president hosting the luncheon. The economists, he said, “aren’t constrained by politics.”

The economy remains the top concern of Americans five years after the official end of the recession. Public dissatisfaction with Obama’s handling of the economy is running higher than on the eve of the 2010 midterm elections, which the president called a “shellacking” that cost his party control of the House of Representatives.

[xchrom]

23. Prepare for Dow 12,000 If Oil Shakes a Fat Tail Feather

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/prepare-for-dow-12-000-if-oil-shakes-a-fat-tail-feather.html

There are a lot of charts in Jeremy Hale’s strategy report today, not to mention a cute illustration of eggs representing various asset classes nestled together in one basket.

But if you are the type who can’t enjoy fresh records in stocks without something to worry about, then “Figure 12. Backward Sloping Theoretical Supply Curve” is the one for you.

As anyone who’s taken an Econ 101 course knows, charts of supply are supposed to look like the ascending portion of a rollercoaster. They slope upward from left to right as rising prices on one axis push output higher on the other. However, if you’re riding the rollercoaster in Hale’s report, make sure your lap belt is nice and tight because you will be darn near upside down by the end of it.

What Hale and his colleagues at Citigroup Inc. are depicting is a theoretical “oil shock,” in which supplies decline even as prices continue to move higher. While the prospect of a supply shock is not the strategists’ “base case,” neither is it “non-negligible” as tensions in the Middle East escalate. The ramifications of this “fairly fat tail risk” would be ugly: oil supply shocks in the past have caused equities to drop 30 percent, according to Citigroup. That would drag the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) to below 12,000 and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to under 1,400.

[Demeter]

24. Does somebody want to start the Weekend?

Here I am, frivoling in Boston....limping on my sister's wonky computer...I could use the help!

Reply below, and thanks!

[xchrom]

25. There Has Been No Growth In Eurozone Retail Sales

http://www.businessinsider.com/eurozone-retail-sales-0-growth-2014-7

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Retail sales in the euro zone stagnated in May as Europeans held back from spending on food, while April's figures were revised down, a sign that high unemployment continues to erode households purchasing plans.
Sales in the 18 countries using the euro showed no growth in May compared to April, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Thursday, while economists polled by Reuters expected a slight increase of 0.2 percent increase in May.

Spending on food, drinks and tobacco fell, offset by a slight rise in spending on clothing, electrical goods and computers equipment.

April's previously positive reading was revised down by Eurostat to show a fall in retail sales trade of 0.2 percent. On an annual basis, what was a 7-year high for sales in the bloc in April was also revised down to 1.8 percent from 2.4 percent.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/eurozone-retail-sales-0-growth-2014-7#ixzz36P0jkt7B

[xchrom]

26. Germany Is Slowing

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-german-private-sector-expands-at-slowest-pace-in-eight-months-in-june-pmi-2014-03

BERLIN, (Reuters) - Germany's private sector expanded at the slowest rate in eight months in June, a survey showed on Thursday, as manufacturing lost steam, although Europe's largest economy looked set to post solid growth in the second quarter.
Markit's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks growth in the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 54.0 in June from 55.6 in May.

That was well above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction but was the lowest level since October last year and also came in below a flash estimate of 54.2.

The services sector PMI fell to 54.6 in June from 56.0 a month earlier and also below the 54.8 flash estimate, but Markit said the sector had grown at the fastest rate in three years in the second quarter.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-german-private-sector-expands-at-slowest-pace-in-eight-months-in-june-pmi-2014-03#ixzz36P1JBnsE

[Demeter]

27. In Banking World, Fraud Is an Epidemic

http://truth-out.org/progressivepicks/item/24431-banks-systemic-corruption-and-governments-conflict-of-interest

BOOK EXCERPT

[Tansy_Gold]

32. As always, Captain Renault has the last word

[xchrom]

28. This Chart Of Stock Market Inflection Points Is Starting To Get Pretty Scary

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-sp-500-inflection-points-2014-7

Every quarter, JPMorgan Funds publishes this annotated chart of the S&P 500 since 1997.

It highlights the last two stock market peaks and subsequent crashes.

Back when we saw it in April 2013, the S&P 500 was at 1,569, which was just points from the Oct. 9, 2007, high. Back then, the message was that valuations were actually attractive despite the elevated price levels.

Unfortunately, that can't be said today.

At around 1,960, the S&P 500 is trading at around 15.6 times forecasted earnings, which is higher than 15.2 in 2007. And this comes after a 190% run up, which compares to the 101% gain ahead of the last market crash.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-sp-500-inflection-points-2014-7#ixzz36P8cln6Z

[DemReadingDU]

29. What goes up, will come down

could be a very steep decline after this run-up in the market

[DemReadingDU]

30. Speech by Christine Lagarde of IMF - Occult Message?

7 minute video posted 5/24/14
read text for the possible occult messages
Gives new meaning to the term voodoo economics

full 1 hour speech 1/15/14

[xchrom]

31. More Money Please: A New Plan to Boost Europe's Straggling Investments

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/a-new-plan-to-boost-european-investment-to-avoid-recession-a-978357.html

Among economists, Marcel Fratzscher is considered to be particularly creative. As head of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Fratzscher publishes more than almost any other economist in the German-speaking world and even politicians come to him for expertise. Indeed, he has been tasked by Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel -- who is also German vice chancellor and head of the center-left Social Democratic Party -- with heading up a working group to examine how investments in Germany can be boosted.

Fratzscher's report, to be released on Wednesday, will likely garner the economist even more high-level attention. The study shows how Europe might be able to mobilize the kind of investment it badly needs, despite empty state coffers and the shackles imposed by the debt and deficit limitations of the European Stability Pact.
"We need an impulse to trigger growth in the crisis countries and to prevent the return of recession in the euro zone," Fratzscher says. He believes the recent proposal from France and Italy, which have insisted that stability rules be adjusted to allow for more investment, have merit as long as the debt rules are not weakened.

The DIW proposal adheres to the long-held economic axiom that today's investments ensure future growth -- that money left unspent on new technology or facilities today will not still be available tomorrow. Since the beginning of the financial crisis, gross fixed capital formation -- a macroeconomic measure of investment -- has dropped by 14 percent in the European Union and by 15 percent in the common currency area, DIW researchers have determined.