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Weekend Economists Visit Borinquen, La Isla del Encanto May 15-17, 2015
FUN FACT: Today is a numerical palindrome 5/15/15/ or 51515
See that sad little, forgotten island in the Greater Antilles on the far right? That's where we are going this Weekend...
Puerto Ricans often call the island Borinquen - a derivation of Borikén, its indigenous Taíno name, which means "Land of the Valiant Lord". The terms boricua and borincano derive from Borikén and Borinquen respectively, and are commonly used to identify someone of Puerto Rican heritage. The island is also popularly known in Spanish as la isla del encanto, meaning "the island of enchantment".
Columbus named the island San Juan Bautista, in honor of the Catholic Saint John the Baptist, while the capital city was named Ciudad de Puerto Rico (English: Rich Port City). Eventually traders and other maritime visitors came to refer to the entire island as Puerto Rico, while San Juan became the name used for the main trading/shipping port and the capital city.
60 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
http://waragainstallpuertoricans.com/2015/05/08/the-man-who-stole-puerto-rico/
General Nelson A. Miles
On May 12, 1898, twelve US Navy ships bombarded San Juan for three hours. The sky turned black with cannon smoke. Homes were hit. Streets were torn. El Morro lighthouse and La Iglesia de San José, a 16th century church, were shelled repeatedly. Thirty thousand people fled the town in abject terror. A few weeks later, planting his flag in the Ponce town square, US commander Gen. Nelson A. Miles, declared that:
The “blessings” and “advantages” were few. Instead, immediately after the US invasion of 1898, a wave of carpetbaggers swarmed over the island like a plague of locusts. Within forty years, they picked her clean of her natural resources. Any Puerto Rican who opposed this too vigorously was shot, imprisoned, or simply “disappeared.”
Every few years, the US government sent four men to ensure this colonial relationship: the Chief Auditor of the island, the Treasurer, the Chief of Police, and the Governor.
The Governor had the greatest authority, since he could hire and fire the other three...
General Nelson A. Miles
“Porto Ricans are a heterogenous mass of mongrels incapable of self-government… savages addicted to head-hunting and cannibalism.”
– Senator William B. Bate (D-Tennessee)
“The whole hemisphere will be ours in fact. By virtue of our superiority of race, it already is ours morally.”
– President William Howard Taft
– Senator William B. Bate (D-Tennessee)
“The whole hemisphere will be ours in fact. By virtue of our superiority of race, it already is ours morally.”
– President William Howard Taft
On May 12, 1898, twelve US Navy ships bombarded San Juan for three hours. The sky turned black with cannon smoke. Homes were hit. Streets were torn. El Morro lighthouse and La Iglesia de San José, a 16th century church, were shelled repeatedly. Thirty thousand people fled the town in abject terror. A few weeks later, planting his flag in the Ponce town square, US commander Gen. Nelson A. Miles, declared that:
“The chief object of the American military forces will be…to give to the people of your beautiful island the largest measure of liberties consistent with military occupation.
We have not come to make war against a people of a country that for centuries has been oppressed, but on the contrary, to bring you protection, to promote your prosperity, to bestow upon you the immunities and blessings of the liberal institutions of our government…and to give the advantages and blessings of enlightened civilization.”
We have not come to make war against a people of a country that for centuries has been oppressed, but on the contrary, to bring you protection, to promote your prosperity, to bestow upon you the immunities and blessings of the liberal institutions of our government…and to give the advantages and blessings of enlightened civilization.”
The “blessings” and “advantages” were few. Instead, immediately after the US invasion of 1898, a wave of carpetbaggers swarmed over the island like a plague of locusts. Within forty years, they picked her clean of her natural resources. Any Puerto Rican who opposed this too vigorously was shot, imprisoned, or simply “disappeared.”
Every few years, the US government sent four men to ensure this colonial relationship: the Chief Auditor of the island, the Treasurer, the Chief of Police, and the Governor.
The Governor had the greatest authority, since he could hire and fire the other three...
Let's drink some rum, or some frozen daiquiris
Christopher Columbus, the explorer credited with the discovery of Puerto Rico
Juan Ponce de León (Santervás de Campos, Valladolid, Spain), was the first governor of Puerto Rico. His grandson Juan Ponce de Leon II was the first indigenous governor of Puerto Rico.
On September 25, 1493, Christopher Columbus set sail on his second voyage with 17 ships and 1,200 to 1,500 men from Cádiz. On November 19, 1493 he landed on the island, naming it San Juan Bautista in honor of Saint John the Baptist.
The first settlement, Caparra, was founded on August 8, 1508 by Juan Ponce de León, a lieutenant under Columbus, who was greeted by the Taíno Cacique Agüeybaná and who later became the first governor of the island. Ponce de Leon was actively involved in the Higuey massacre of 1503 in Puerto Rico. In 1508, Sir Ponce de Leon was chosen by the Spanish Crown to lead the conquest and exploitation of the Taíno Indians for gold mining operations.
The following year, the settlement was abandoned in favor of a nearby islet on the coast, named Puerto Rico (Rich Port), which had a suitable harbor. In 1511, a second settlement, San Germán was established in the southwestern part of the island. According to the "500TH Florida Discovery Council Round Table", on March 3, 1513, Juan Ponce de León organized and commenced an expedition (with a crew of 200, including women and free blacks) departing from "Punta Aguada" Puerto Rico.
Puerto Rico was the historic first gateway to the discovery of Florida, which opened the door to the settlement of the southeastern United States.
They introduced Christianity, cattle, horses, sheep, the Spanish language and more to the land (Florida) that later became the United States of America. This settlement occurred 107 years before the Pilgrims landed.
During the 1520s, the island took the name of Puerto Rico while the port became San Juan. The Spanish settlers established the first repartimiento system, under which natives were distributed to Spanish officials to be used as slave labor. On December 27, 1512, under pressure from the Roman Catholic Church, Ferdinand II of Aragon issued the Burgos' Laws, which modified the repartimiento into a system called encomiendas, aimed at ending the exploitation. The laws prohibited the use of any form of punishment toward the indigenous people, regulated their work hours, pay, hygiene, and care, and ordered them to be catechized.
In 1511, the Taínos revolted against the Spanish; cacique Urayoán, as planned by Agüeybaná II, ordered his warriors to drown the Spanish soldier Diego Salcedo to determine whether the Spaniards were immortal. After drowning Salcedo, they kept watch over his body for three days to confirm his death. The revolt was easily crushed by Ponce de León and within a few decades much of the native population had been decimated by disease, violence, and a high occurrence of suicide. As a result, Taíno culture, language, and traditions were generally destroyed, and were claimed to have "vanished" 50 years after Christopher Columbus arrived. Since the early 21st century, efforts have been made to revive and rebuild Taíno culture.
The Roman Catholic Church of chappel, realizing the opportunity to expand its influence, also participated in colonizing the island. On August 8, 1511, Pope Julius II established three dioceses in the New World, one in Puerto Rico and two on the island of Hispaniola under the archbishop of Seville. The Canon of Salamanca, Alonso Manso, was appointed bishop of the Puerto Rican diocese. On September 26, 1512, before his arrival on the island, the first school of advanced studies was established by the bishop. Taking possession in 1513, he became the first bishop to arrive in the Americas. Puerto Rico would also become the first ecclesiastical headquarters in the New World during the reign of Pope Leo X and the general headquarters of the Spanish Inquisition in the New World.
As part of the colonization process, African slaves were brought to the island in 1513. Following the decline of the Taíno population, more slaves were brought to Puerto Rico; however, the number of slaves on the island paled in comparison to those in neighboring islands. Also, early in the colonization of Puerto Rico, attempts were made to wrest control of Puerto Rico from Spain. The Caribs, a raiding tribe of the Caribbean, attacked Spanish settlements along the banks of the Daguao and Macao rivers in 1514 and again in 1521 but each time they were easily repelled by the superior Spanish firepower. However, these would not be the last attempts at control of Puerto Rico. The European powers quickly realized the potential of the newly discovered lands and attempted to gain control of them.
The first school in Puerto Rico and the first school in the United States after Puerto Rico became a US territory, was the Escuela de Gramatica (Grammar School). The school was established by Bishop Alonso Manso in 1513, in the area where the Cathedral of San Juan was to be constructed. The school was free of charge and the courses taught were Latin language, literature, history, science, art, philosophy and theology.
European threats
Sparked by the possibility of immense wealth, many European powers made attempts to wrest control of the Americas from Spain in the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries. Success in invasion varied, and ultimately all Spanish opponents failed to maintain permanent control of the island. In 1528, the French, recognizing the strategic value of Puerto Rico, sacked and burned the southwestern town of San Germán. They also destroyed many of the island's first settlements, including Guánica, Sotomayor, Daguao and Loíza before the local militia forced them to retreat. The only settlement that remained was the capital, San Juan. French corsairs would again sack San Germán in 1538 and 1554.
Spain, determined to defend its possession, began the fortification of the inlet of San Juan in the early 16th century. In 1532, construction of the first fortifications began with La Fortaleza (the Fortress) near the entrance to San Juan bay. Seven years later the construction of massive defenses around San Juan began, including Fort San Felipe del Morro astride the entrance to San Juan bay. Later, Fort San Cristóbal and Fort San Jerónimo—built with a financial subsidy from the Mexican mines—garrisoned troops and defended against land attacks. In 1587, engineers Juan de Tejada and Juan Bautista Antonelli redesigned Fort San Felipe del Morro; these changes endure. Politically, Puerto Rico was reorganized in 1580 into a captaincy general to provide for more autonomy and quick administrative responses to military threats.
On November 22, 1595, English privateer Sir Francis Drake—with 27 vessels and 2,500 troops—sailed into San Juan Bay intending to loot the city. However, they were unable to defeat the forces entrenched in the forts. Knowing Drake had failed to overcome the city's defenses by sea, on June 15, 1598, the Royal Navy, led by George Clifford, 3rd Earl of Cumberland, landed troops from 21 ships to the east in Santurce. Clifford and his men met Spanish resistance while attempting to cross the San Antonio bridge (from an area known today as Condado) into the islet of San Juan. Nonetheless, the English conquered the island and held it for several months. They were forced to abandon the island owing to an outbreak of dysentery among the troops. The following year Spain sent soldiers, cannons, and a new governor, Alonso de Mercado, to rebuild the city of San Juan.
The 17th and 18th centuries saw more attacks on the island. On September 25, 1625, the Dutch, under the leadership of Boudewijn Hendrick (Balduino Enrico), attacked San Juan, besieging Fort San Felipe del Morro and La Fortaleza. Residents fled the city but the Spanish, led by Governor Juan de Haro, were able to repel the Dutch troops from Fort San Felipe del Morro. The fortification of San Juan continued; in 1634, Philip IV of Spain fortified Fort San Cristóbal, along with six fortresses linked by a line of sandstone walls surrounding the city. In 1702, the English assaulted the town of Arecibo, located on the north coast, west of San Juan, with no success. In 1797, the French and Spanish declared war on the United Kingdom. The British attempted again to conquer the island, attacking San Juan with an invasion force of 7,000 troops and an armada consisting of 64 warships under the command of General Ralph Abercromby. Captain General Don Ramón de Castro and his army successfully resisted the attack.
Amidst the constant attacks, the first threads of Puerto Rican society emerged. A 1765 census conducted by Lt. General Alejandro O'Reilly showed a total population of 44,883, of which 5,037 (11.2%) were slaves, a low percentage compared to the other Spanish colonies in the Caribbean. In 1786 the first comprehensive history of Puerto Rico—Historia Geográfica, Civil y Política de Puerto Rico by Fray Iñigo Abbad y Lasierra—was published in Madrid, documenting the history of Puerto Rico from the time of Columbus' landing in 1493 until 1783. The book also presents a first hand account of Puerto Rican identity, including music, clothing, personality and nationality.
In 1779, Puerto Ricans fought in the American Revolutionary War under the command of Bernardo de Gálvez, who was named Field Marshal of the Spanish colonial army in North America. Puerto Ricans participated in the capture of Pensacola, the capital of the British colony of West Florida and the cities of Baton Rouge, St. Louis and Mobile. The Puerto Rican troops, commanded by Brigadier General Ramón de Castro, helped defeat the British and Indian army of 2,500 soldiers and British warships in Pensacola.
Early 19th century
The 19th century brought many changes to Puerto Rico, both political and social. In 1809, the Spanish government, in opposition to Napoleon, was convened in Cádiz in southern Spain. While still swearing allegiance to the king, the Supreme Central Junta invited voting representatives from the colonies. Ramón Power y Giralt was nominated as the local delegate to the Cádiz Cortes. The Ley Power ("the Power Act"
soon followed, which designated five ports for free commerce—Fajardo, Mayagüez, Aguadilla, Cabo Rojo and Ponce—and established economic reforms with the goal of developing a more efficient economy. In 1812, the Cádiz Constitution was adopted, dividing Spain and its territories into provinces, each with a local corporation or council to promote its prosperity and defend its interests; this granted Puerto Ricans conditional citizenship.
On August 10, 1815, the Royal Decree of Grace was issued, allowing foreigners to enter Puerto Rico (including French refugees from Hispaniola), and opening the port to trade with nations other than Spain. This was the beginning of agriculture-based economic growth, with sugar, tobacco and coffee being the main products. The Decree also gave free land to anyone who swore their loyalty to the Spanish Crown and their allegiance to the Roman Catholic Church. Thousands of families from all regions of Spain (particularly Asturias, Catalonia, Majorca and Galicia), Germany, Corsica, Ireland, France, Portugal, the Canary Islands and other locations, escaping from harsh economic times in Europe and lured by the offer of free land, soon immigrated to Puerto Rico. However, these small gains in autonomy and rights were short lived. After the fall of Napoleon, absolute power returned to Spain, which revoked the Cádiz Constitution and reinstated Puerto Rico to its former condition as a colony, subject to the unrestricted power of the Spanish monarch.
The integration of immigrants into Puerto Rican culture and other events changed Puerto Rican society. On June 25, 1835, Queen María Cristina abolished the slave trade to Spanish colonies. In 1851, Governor Juan de la Pezuela Cevallos founded the Royal Academy of Belles Letters. The academy licensed primary school teachers, formulated school methods, and held literary contests that promoted the intellectual and literary progress of the island.
In 1858, Samuel Morse introduced wired communication to Latin America when he established a telegraph system in Puerto Rico. Morse's oldest daughter Susan Walker Morse (1821–1885), would often visit her uncle Charles Pickering Walker who owned the Hacienda Concordia in the town of Guayama. Morse, who often spent his winters at the Hacienda with his daughter and son-in-law, who lived and owned the Hacienda Henriqueta, set a two-mile telegraph line connecting his son-in-law's hacienda to their house in Arroyo. The line was inaugurated on March 1, 1859 in a ceremony flanked by the Spanish and American flags. The first lines transmitted by Morse that day in Puerto Rico were:
"Puerto Rico, beautiful jewel! When you are linked with the other jewels of the Antilles in the necklace of the world's telegraph, yours will not shine less brilliantly in the crown of your Queen!"
Minor slave revolts had occurred in the island during this period, However the revolt planned and organized by Marcos Xiorro in 1821, was the most important of them all. Even though the conspiracy was unsuccessful, he achieved legendary status among the slaves and is part of Puerto Rico's folklore.
Struggle for sovereignty
The last half of the 19th century was marked by the Puerto Rican struggle for sovereignty. A census conducted in 1860 revealed a population of 583,308. Of these, 300,406 (51.5%) were white and 282,775 (48.5%) were persons of color, the latter including people of primarily African heritage, mulattos and mestizos. The majority of the population in Puerto Rico was illiterate (83.7%) and lived in poverty, and the agricultural industry—at the time, the main source of income—was hampered by lack of road infrastructure, adequate tools and equipment, and natural disasters, including hurricanes and droughts. The economy also suffered from increasing tariffs and taxes imposed by the Spanish Crown. Furthermore, Spain had begun to exile or jail any person who called for liberal reforms.
"The first Puerto Rican Flag" used in the unsuccessful Grito de Lares (Lares Uprising)
On September 23, 1868, hundreds of men and women in the town of Lares—stricken by poverty and politically estranged from Spain—revolted against Spanish rule, seeking Puerto Rican independence. The Grito de Lares ("Lares Cry" or "Lares Uprising"
was planned by a group led by Dr. Ramón Emeterio Betances, at the time exiled to the Dominican Republic, and Segundo Ruiz Belvis. Dr. Betances had founded the Comité Revolucionario de Puerto Rico (Revolutionary Committee of Puerto Rico) in January 1868. The most important figures in the uprising were Manuel Rojas, Mathias Brugman, Mariana Bracetti, Francisco Ramirez Medina and Lola Rodríguez de Tió. The uprising, although significant, was quickly controlled by Spanish authorities.
Following the Grito de Lares revolt, political and social reforms occurred toward the end of the 19th century. On June 4, 1870, due to the efforts of Román Baldorioty de Castro, Luis Padial and Julio Vizcarrondo, the Moret Law was approved, giving freedom to slaves born after September 17, 1868 or over 60 years old; on March 22, 1873, the Spanish National Assembly officially abolished, with a few special clauses, slavery in Puerto Rico.
In 1870, the first political organizations on the island were formed as two factions emerged. The Traditionalists, known as the Partido Liberal Conservador (Liberal Conservative Party) were led by José R. Fernández, Pablo Ubarri and Francisco Paula Acuña and advocated assimilation into the political party system of Spain. The Autonomists, known as the Partido Liberal Reformista (Liberal Reformist Party) were led by Román Baldorioty de Castro, José Julián Acosta, Nicolás Aguayo and Pedro Gerónimo Goico and advocated decentralization away from Spanish control.
Both parties would later change their names to Partido Incondicional Español (Unconditional Spanish Party) and Partido Federal Reformista (Reformist Federal Party), respectively. In March 1887, the Partido Federal Reformista was reformed and named the Partido Autonomista Puertorriqueño (Puerto Rican Autonomist Party); it tried to create a political and legal identity for Puerto Rico while emulating Spain in all political matters. It was led by Román Baldorioty de Castro, José Celso Barbosa, Rosendo Matienzo Cintrón and Luis Muñoz Rivera.
Leaders of "El Grito de Lares", who were in exile in New York City, joined the Puerto Rican Revolutionary Committee, founded on December 8, 1895, and continued their quest for Puerto Rican independence. In 1897, Antonio Mattei Lluberas and the local leaders of the independence movement of the town of Yauco, organized another uprising, which became known as the "Intentona de Yauco". This was the first time that the current Puerto Rican flag was unfurled in Puerto Rican soil. The local conservative political factions, which believed that such an attempt would be a threat to their struggle for autonomy, opposed such an action. Rumors of the planned event spread to the local Spanish authorities who acted swiftly and put an end to what would be the last major uprising in the island to Spanish colonial rule.
The struggle for autonomy came close to achieving its goal on November 25, 1897, when the Carta Autonómica (Charter of Autonomy), which conceded political and administrative autonomy to the island, was approved in Spain. In the past 400-plus years, after centuries of colonial rule, Práxedes Mateo Sagasta, the Prime Minister of Spain granted the island an autonomous government on November 25, 1897 in the empire's legislative body in Cádiz, Spain, and trade was opened up with the United States and European colonies.
The charter maintained a governor appointed by Spain, who held the power to veto any legislative decision he disagreed with, and a partially elected parliamentary structure. That same year, the Partido Autonomista Ortodoxo (Orthodox Autonomist Party), led by José Celso Barbosa and Manuel Fernández Juncos, was founded. On February 9, 1898, the new government officially began. Local legislature set its own budget and taxes. They accepted or rejected commercial treaties concluded by Spain. In February 1898, Governor General Manuel Macías inaugurated the new government of Puerto Rico under the Autonomous Charter which gave town councils complete autonomy in local matters. Subsequently, the governor had no authority to intervene in civil and political matters unless authorized to do so by the Cabinet. General elections were held in March and on July 17, 1898 Puerto Rico's autonomous government began to function, but not for long.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-carried-interest-tax-loophole.html
What set this conversation going is the 'carried interest' tax loophole that allows wealthy hedge fund manager to pay much lower taxes on what is really ordinary income. There are many more egregious loopholes readily available to the tax-lawyered-up wealthy, and you probably have not even heard of, or can imagine, most of them. What interested me more about this is not so much the discussion of an obvious tax loophole, but the reactions of the participants, and the lack of self-awareness.
Ken Langone is the epitome of what is wrong with the one percent and their distorted view of reality. And Stephanie Ruhle is their cheerleader and hagiographer. Erik Schatzker gets props for at least trying to inject some realism and balance into the discussion in the most polite way. Well, he is a Canadian after all.
Anyone who can distill 'poor Angelo Mozilo' and 'Barney Frank did it' as the only lessons out of the carnage and suffering of the housing financial crisis with its rampant, largely unindicted fraud, brazenly committed by financial institutions and their enablers in ratings agencies, is living in an alternate universe. And unfortunately that is the case. The uber-wealthy often live in a bubble of delusion because few if any will ever tell them the truth, and if they do, they do not wish to hear it and shout them down or use their money and influence to shut them up. This is the well spring of hubris and overreach. No one wants to tell the Emperor that he is naked. No one can tell a Caligula that his horse is a poor choice for the Senate. No one wants to explain to the powerful that they have gone too far, and that the times, they are a changin'. They seem to have to get hit with reality in the face, and that is too bad for a lot of innocent bystanders.
Langone is a walking, squawking, self-delusional example of the credibility trap in action. And he is certainly not alone. He has a lot of brothers among the uber-wealthy, and kissing cousins in the Congress and politicians in general, and throughout the media, think tanks, and universities. This is why there will not be any kind of meaningful internal reform until the people clip the wings of the moneyed interests from buying elections, and politicians, and the networks. And this should be an object lesson to any people overseas who think that the terrible consequences they have suffered endured from the exports of fraudulent paper and practices of the Anglo-Americans over the past ten years have changed. They have not. And the utterly distorted, unrepentant, and unreformed world view of the unfortunately powerful one percent is the reason. Why stop when you are winning...
Here is a link to the interview on Bloomberg in case the embedded version is not working for you. Ken Langone On Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-05-15/ken-langone-obama-engaging-in-rich-vs-poor-in-u-s-
This original work on this site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 US License
I make every attempt to respect the rights of others. If you feel that something here has infringed your work please let me know and I will correct it immediately. It is not always easy to determine the status of material posted to the Internet with regard to fair use and public domain.
What set this conversation going is the 'carried interest' tax loophole that allows wealthy hedge fund manager to pay much lower taxes on what is really ordinary income. There are many more egregious loopholes readily available to the tax-lawyered-up wealthy, and you probably have not even heard of, or can imagine, most of them. What interested me more about this is not so much the discussion of an obvious tax loophole, but the reactions of the participants, and the lack of self-awareness.
Ken Langone is the epitome of what is wrong with the one percent and their distorted view of reality. And Stephanie Ruhle is their cheerleader and hagiographer. Erik Schatzker gets props for at least trying to inject some realism and balance into the discussion in the most polite way. Well, he is a Canadian after all.
Anyone who can distill 'poor Angelo Mozilo' and 'Barney Frank did it' as the only lessons out of the carnage and suffering of the housing financial crisis with its rampant, largely unindicted fraud, brazenly committed by financial institutions and their enablers in ratings agencies, is living in an alternate universe. And unfortunately that is the case. The uber-wealthy often live in a bubble of delusion because few if any will ever tell them the truth, and if they do, they do not wish to hear it and shout them down or use their money and influence to shut them up. This is the well spring of hubris and overreach. No one wants to tell the Emperor that he is naked. No one can tell a Caligula that his horse is a poor choice for the Senate. No one wants to explain to the powerful that they have gone too far, and that the times, they are a changin'. They seem to have to get hit with reality in the face, and that is too bad for a lot of innocent bystanders.
Langone is a walking, squawking, self-delusional example of the credibility trap in action. And he is certainly not alone. He has a lot of brothers among the uber-wealthy, and kissing cousins in the Congress and politicians in general, and throughout the media, think tanks, and universities. This is why there will not be any kind of meaningful internal reform until the people clip the wings of the moneyed interests from buying elections, and politicians, and the networks. And this should be an object lesson to any people overseas who think that the terrible consequences they have suffered endured from the exports of fraudulent paper and practices of the Anglo-Americans over the past ten years have changed. They have not. And the utterly distorted, unrepentant, and unreformed world view of the unfortunately powerful one percent is the reason. Why stop when you are winning...
Here is a link to the interview on Bloomberg in case the embedded version is not working for you. Ken Langone On Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-05-15/ken-langone-obama-engaging-in-rich-vs-poor-in-u-s-
This original work on this site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 US License
I make every attempt to respect the rights of others. If you feel that something here has infringed your work please let me know and I will correct it immediately. It is not always easy to determine the status of material posted to the Internet with regard to fair use and public domain.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/05/consumer-confidence-plunges-below-any.html
Consumer confidence is the third miss by economists in a single day. Please consider the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate for Consumer Confidence.
image:
Missing the Boat
Not only was the consensus outside the range of reading predictions, economists did not even get the leading sign correct. Economists expected an improvement from 101.3 to 103.0 but instead the index plunged 7.6%.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/05/consumer-confidence-plunges-below-any.html#5Oa6odUmUH7RIt9w.99
Consumer confidence is the third miss by economists in a single day. Please consider the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate for Consumer Confidence.
image:
Consumer confidence has fallen back noticeably this month, down more than 6 points to a much lower-than-expected 95.2. This compares very poorly with the Econoday consensus for 103.0 and is even far below the Econoday low estimate of 100.5. The weakness, ominously, is the result of falling assessments of the jobs market, both the current jobs market and expectations for the future jobs market. The second quarter, which is expected to be much stronger than the weather-depressed first quarter, isn't likely to get off to a fast start, at least as far as this report goes.
The most striking weakness in April is the assessment of future conditions with the expectations component down 8.5 points to 87.5 for the weakest reading going all the way back to September. And the most striking weakness among the sub-components is employment, where fewer see more jobs opening up 6 months from now and more see fewer jobs available. This spills over into income where fewer see an increase ahead and more see a decrease.
But also weak is the present situation component which is down more than 2-1/2 points to 106.8 for its weakest reading since December. Here the most closely watched sub-component is the jobs-hard-to-get reading which is up nearly 1 full percentage point to 26.4 percent. This reading will hold back expectations at least to some degree for a big bounce back in the April employment report from a very weak March.
Inflation expectations are down sharply this month, 4 tenths lower to 4.8 percent which is one of the lowest readings of the recovery. Gas prices have been edging higher but are still low, the latter no doubt a major factor behind the latest reading.
Buying plans are mixed with automobile and vacation plans down but not home plans which are up. But home buying won't be a featured activity for consumers if their expectations for employment are weak. Today's report, showing weakness in the jobs assessment and in inflation expectations, won't be pulling forward expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate hike.
The most striking weakness in April is the assessment of future conditions with the expectations component down 8.5 points to 87.5 for the weakest reading going all the way back to September. And the most striking weakness among the sub-components is employment, where fewer see more jobs opening up 6 months from now and more see fewer jobs available. This spills over into income where fewer see an increase ahead and more see a decrease.
But also weak is the present situation component which is down more than 2-1/2 points to 106.8 for its weakest reading since December. Here the most closely watched sub-component is the jobs-hard-to-get reading which is up nearly 1 full percentage point to 26.4 percent. This reading will hold back expectations at least to some degree for a big bounce back in the April employment report from a very weak March.
Inflation expectations are down sharply this month, 4 tenths lower to 4.8 percent which is one of the lowest readings of the recovery. Gas prices have been edging higher but are still low, the latter no doubt a major factor behind the latest reading.
Buying plans are mixed with automobile and vacation plans down but not home plans which are up. But home buying won't be a featured activity for consumers if their expectations for employment are weak. Today's report, showing weakness in the jobs assessment and in inflation expectations, won't be pulling forward expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate hike.
Missing the Boat
Not only was the consensus outside the range of reading predictions, economists did not even get the leading sign correct. Economists expected an improvement from 101.3 to 103.0 but instead the index plunged 7.6%.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/05/consumer-confidence-plunges-below-any.html#5Oa6odUmUH7RIt9w.99
Because... Well, just because! 
Musical Interlude - Russian Sailor's Dance - From the May 9th Victory Day celebrations in Moscow.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-15/wall-street-just-got-more-pessimistic-about-the-u-s-economy-will-the-fed-follow-suit-
VIDEO BLATHER AT LINK
Federal Reserve officials will probably cut their forecasts for economic growth when they gather again next month, though not enough to deter their intent to raise interest rates later this year.
The median respondent to a survey of 79 economists conducted by Bloomberg from May 8 to May 13 said U.S. gross domestic product would grow 2.3 percent in the final quarter of 2015 from a year earlier, down from the 2.7 percent median estimate in April.
That compares with a 2.5 percent midpoint of the central tendency of estimates submitted by Fed officials at their March meeting, the last time they issued updated forecasts. The central tendency denotes the range of estimates excluding the three highest and three lowest of the 17 policy makers' projections....
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Federal Reserve officials will probably cut their forecasts for economic growth when they gather again next month, though not enough to deter their intent to raise interest rates later this year.
The median respondent to a survey of 79 economists conducted by Bloomberg from May 8 to May 13 said U.S. gross domestic product would grow 2.3 percent in the final quarter of 2015 from a year earlier, down from the 2.7 percent median estimate in April.
That compares with a 2.5 percent midpoint of the central tendency of estimates submitted by Fed officials at their March meeting, the last time they issued updated forecasts. The central tendency denotes the range of estimates excluding the three highest and three lowest of the 17 policy makers' projections....
The Seasteading Institute was the toast of tech entrepreneurs when it received financial backing from venture capitalist Peter Thiel in 2008. Its mission was to build a manmade island nation where inventors could work free of heavy-handed government interference. One early rendering shows an island raised on concrete stilts in eerily calm waters. The buildings atop the platform resemble nothing so much as the swanky tech campus of an entrepreneur’s ultimate dream: No sign of land or civilization in sight. The island, despite appearing strapped for square footage, has room for a full-size swimming pool with deck lounges.
In a 2009 essay, Thiel described these island paradises as a potential “escape from politics in all its forms.” It wasn’t just desirable, he said. It seemed possible. “We may have reached the stage at which it is economically feasible, or where it will soon be feasible,” he wrote.
More than a half-decade later, the dream has yet to be realized. And optimism is starting to waver. Earlier this year, during a talk at George Mason University, Thiel said, “I’m not exactly sure that I’m going to succeed in building a libertarian utopia any time soon.” Part of the problem: A truly self-sufficient society might exceed the range even of Thiel’s fortune. “You need to have a version where you could get started with a budget of less than $50 billion,” he said....
http://www.wired.com/2015/05/silicon-valley-letting-go-techie-island-fantasies/
