Much Of N. Africa, Sahel, ME Will Be Uninhabitable By Mid-2000s - Max Planck Institute

[hatrack]

Heatwaves so hot that it’s impossible to perform any activity outdoors without threat of injury or worse. Raging dust storms that make the very air unbreathable. Massive droughts that wreck agricultural productivity and biodiversity altogether. Sections of Africa and the Middle East are currently getting a taste of these new, dangerous climate conditions. But their frequency could increase by five fold or more over the next 30-40 years — threatening harm, government collapse, and the forced dislocation of millions.


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(A new infertile crescent. Climate change increases desertification risks for semi-arid regions across Africa. Image source: Grid-Arendal, Columbia University and CNN.)

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500 Million People Under Extreme Heat and Drought in Africa and Middle East by mid-Century

But it’s not just Sudan that’s facing a flip into nation-wrecking climate conditions. By 2050, extreme heat related events will be happening five times more frequently as the Earth warms up along a desiccating crescent in Africa and onward throughout a good chunk of the Middle East. During summers, by mid Century, temperatures throughout this vulnerable zone could be as much as 5 degrees Celsius hotter than they are today.

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(Temperatures are set to rise to extreme levels across Africa and the Middle East due to fossil fuel burning and related Earth System warming. The impacts produce a high risk for mass migration away from these regions as hothouse conditions take hold. Image source: The Max-Planck Institute.)

Including Sudan, more than 500 million people live in this region. And according to the Max-Planck Institute, extremely hot days — of which there were 16 each year within this vulnerable area from 1986 to 2005 — will increase five-fold to 80 by 2050 and up to 118 to 200 by 2100. Added extraordinary and persistent heat will bake moisture out of soils, ruin forests, and advance deserts. It will produce days when wet bulb temperatures approach or exceed the limit of human endurance (35 C) time and time again. Such a high prevalence and intensity of adverse conditions will make the current problems faced by the region seem mild and moderate by comparison. In the end, numerous places are likely to become basically unlivable.

Given the coming hardship and what is likely to be a preventable mass migration, scientists and environmentalists are calling for action. CNN and others have highlighted a need for aid to Africa and the Middle East. But as helpful as aid is to those desperate and struggling to survive, the primary driver of the whole problem is human-based fossil fuel emissions. And unless that stops, this region and its highly vulnerable peoples, among others around the world, will be very hard hit.


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https://robertscribbler.com/2016/12/09/rendered-uninhabitable-by-heat-its-not-just-sudan-parts-from-north-africa-to-the-middle-east-are-under-the-gun/

[Auggie]

1. Bad news for people AND critters

[NickB79]

2. Europe will see a flood of refugees, and it will destroy them

Millions of climate refugees streaming in over a few short decades will strain their social safety nets to failure, while Europe will also need to be investing billions to address climate damage in their own countries.

This will pour gasoline on the resurgent white nationalist parties already growing in power today. Eventually Europe will slam their doors closed, and persecute immigrants horribly, both legal and illegal.

And then, the rage against them for condemning millions to bake further south will fuel terrorist groups to attack.

And thus we get one more pressure point to send civilization into full-on collapse by the end of the century.

[pscot]

3. This echos the decline of Rome

Several hundred years of migrations from Germany and Eurasia kept the empire under constant pressure.

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. 500 million people appears to be the current population of the area

If that's correct, the potential population will be even greater by the time the disasters become overwhelming.

With the highest rate of population growth, Africa is expected to account for more than half of the world’s population growth between 2015 and 2050.

During this period, the populations of 28 African countries are projected to more than double, and by 2100, ten African countries are projected to have increased by at least a factor of five: Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia.

http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/2015-report.html

A large overlap in the countries with the highest growth, and affected by the temperatures. The projections to 2100 won't happen like that, because of climate change, but there'll be more people to be affected than there are now.