Renewable output could overtake nuclear power in a couple of years

[The_jackalope]

On a global, full-year basis, accelerating renewable production looks like it will overtake the historically stagnant output of nuclear power in two to three years.

Frankly, when I started tracking global energy sources in 2004 I dismissed such a possibility out of hand. I was wrong. In 2016 the renewable energy sector produced almost 17 exajoules. If the same trend holds for the next decade as it did for the last one, the value proposition of nuclear power will be, um, "severely degraded."

[diane in sf]

1. According to this article it's already happening in the US.

https://www.ecowatch.com/renewables-beat-nuclear-2448462807.html?xrs=RebelMouse_fb&ts=1498485926

"...For the first third of this year, renewables and nuclear power have been running neck-in-neck with renewables providing 20.20 percent of U.S. net electrical generation during the four-month period (January to April) compared to 20.75 percent for nuclear power. But in March and April, renewables surpassed nuclear power and have taken a growing lead: 21.60 percent (renewables) vs. 20.34 percent (nuclear) in March, and 22.98 percent (renewables) vs. 19.19 percent (nuclear) in April.

While renewables and nuclear are each likely to continue to provide roughly one-fifth of the nation's electricity generation in the near-term, the trend line clearly favors a rapidly expanding market share by renewables. Electrical output by renewables during the first third of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016 has increased by 12.1 percent whereas nuclear output has dropped by 2.9 percent. In fact, nuclear capacity has declined over the last four years, a trend which is projected to continue, regardless of planned new reactor startups."