On The New York Magazine Article, "Doomerism" And Other Controversies

[hatrack]

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html

As many have noted , there’s a fair amount of discussion out there on this article. Too much? Too assetive? Too doomy? Could be. I’d be the first to concede that there are a lot of mechanisms out there, particularly regarding large-scale methane venting, Canfield Oceans, hydrogen sulfide, etc., where we don’t know all that much. This makes 2100 very likely a (very) premature deadline in the context of the piece.

But on balance, I can’t really see all that much that promises an ending other that what the article portrays, though timescales will be debatable until the cows come home. I’m not talking about a novelistic sketching out (a la John Michael Greer) of how things might unfold. I’m talking about data points and events that are happening right here and now, none of which offer “hope” of a climate-stabilized, sustainable world. Even setting aside this summer’s record-smashing temperatures and extreme fire behavior, consider the following:

1. Atmospheric CO2 – For there to be any hope of stabilization, or at least a blunting of worst-case impacts, this number must fall. It hasn’t fallen. And even as press release after press release herald the declining carbon intensity of this nation’s economy or the fuel savings of that company’s fleet, atmospheric carbon just keeps on rising (407.14 on Saturday, compared to 404.00 precisely one year earlier). It’s possible, naturally, that some nations are lying about their carbon output, just as nations have been known to lie about their economic output. It’s also possible that there are natural processes we have set into motion that we can’t yet account for. Whatever the case, the numbers keep increasing.

2. Reef Bleaching & Death – We’re now at the end of an unprecedented 3-year global bleaching cycle. In Australia, where tracking and reef imaging are probably the most consistent and valuable, experts estimate that (conservatively) between 20% and 25% of the GBR is now dead. Not bleached, not in recovery, but dead, largely in the northern sectors. Results from other areas, particularly in the Central Pacific, are substantially worse, and it wouldn’t take much more than another year or two of warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures to put paid to much of what remains. We are now confronting the very real possibility of most, if not all, of the most biodiverse and bio-productive portions of the ocean becoming algae farms, possibly within a few years or (at most) decades, depending on ocean temps and water transport.

3. Atmospheric Methane – Atmospheric methane content has increased about 13% in less than 30 years – https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/ – and while much remains unknown about the possible mobilization of methane trapped in soils or marine sediment, reports of at least two explosive crater formations in the Yamal area, one in January and one in June, aren’t encouraging, though more reporting and data in these cases would be welcome. http://www.iflscience.com/environment/two-massive-new-holes-have-exploded-open-in-siberia/ Will Siberia blow up and melt down in our lifetimes? Not likely, but the quantities of methane contained in marine and land formations demand concentrated, continuing research.

4. Absolute American Political System Failure – Recent elections in France and the Netherlands seem to display nothing so much as an appalled European reaction to the possibility of a Trump on their side of the pond, and as such are encouraging. But the elevation of a narcissistic, stupid and venal sociopath to the most powerful office in America , and the fact that between one-quarter and one-third of this country’s citizens really, truly WANT to be lied to does not bode well for a future that’s only going to get more complicated. The media failed, the education system failed and even the Electoral College, which was purportedly designed to prevent the rise of people like Genghis Con-man, failed. Now we watch in stupefaction as any remnants of objectivity, science and integrity in the federal government are trampled in favor of emotionally pleasing tribal rituals, because said trampling pisses off liberals.

If this is where we now stand, 120 years post-Arhennius, nearly 30 years after Hansen, and in spite of all the scientific skills deployed since 1988, what, pray tell, will deflect the horrors Wallace-Wells outlines in his article, though his calendar be wrong?