2/13 Drought Monitor; Record 124 Days w/o Rain In Amarillo, "Historically Low" R. Mountain Snowpack

[hatrack]

<a href="" />Linked text</a>

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South

For the second consecutive week, moderate to heavy rain in eastern portions of the region contrasted with intensifying drought across the southern Plains and environs. Rainfall totaled 2 to 6 inches from eastern Texas into Tennessee, with two-week totals of 6 inches or more in east-central Mississippi. The net result was a widespread reduction of Abnormal Dryness (D0) and Moderate to Severe Drought (D1 and D2). Despite the moisture, longer-term deficits persisted in the Delta’s core D1 area, with 90-day precipitation 50 to 70 percent of normal (locally less). Farther west, Extreme Drought (D3) expanded further across northern Texas, with even more notable increases in D2 in central Texas. The drought situation remained unchanged in Oklahoma, with rain sorely needed as warmer weather begins to stimulate the growth of crops and vegetation. From Lubbock, Texas, northward into Oklahoma, little — if any — precipitation has fallen over the past 90 to 120 days; the four-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was well below D4 levels (-2.0 or lower, with some below -3.0) in these locales. The lack of rainfall is affecting winter wheat, pastures, pond levels, and streamflows. Impacts will rapidly escalate if rain does not materialize soon. To put the dryness in perspective, February 14th marked the 124th consecutive day without rain in Amarillo, shattering the previous mark of 75 days (records date back to 1892). In Lubbock, February 14 marked the 98th consecutive day without measurable precipitation, tying the record. Other notables in Texas include Plainview and Memphis, which are both now at 130 days without measureable precipitation. Similar statistics are emanating out of Oklahoma, where Woodward and Laverne just reached 127 days without measureable precipitation as of February 14. The situation on the southern Plains is rapidly becoming dire, and precipitation will be needed soon to prevent further expansion or intensification of drought.

Midwest

Cold weather prevailed, with a swath of welcomed snowfall in central portions of the region contrasting with intensifying drought to the south. From Iowa into southern Michigan, widespread snow (4-12 inches, locally more) boosted moisture prospects, with a liquid equivalent 0.5 inch to locally more than an inch. As a result, there were modest reductions to Abnormal Dryness (D0) in parts of Iowa, southwestern Minnesota, and east-central Wisconsin. Meanwhile, drought continued to intensify from southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois and west-central Indiana. Dryness was most pronounced across eastern Missouri and neighboring portions of Illinois, where 6-month precipitation has

averaged a meager 25 to 50 percent of normal (deficits of 8 to 12 inches). In these locales, Severe and Extreme Drought (D2 and D3) were expanded. Similarly, 2- to 4-inch deficits over the past 90 days (less than 50 percent of normal) were noted in the newly-expanded Moderate Drought (D1) and D0 areas of east-central Illinois and west-central Indiana.

High Plains

Additional snow in central portions of the region contrasted with dry conditions elsewhere. There were no changes made to the drought depiction in the Dakotas, where a lack of snowfall to date has led to declining prospects for spring meltoff; resultant detrimental impacts on topsoil moisture and stock pond levels remained a primary concern. Meanwhile, a continuation of the recent snowy weather pattern in northeastern Colorado, southeastern Wyoming, northwestern Kansas, and much of Nebraska (30-day surplus of 1-2 inches, liquid equivalent) supported the reduction of Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormal Dryness (D0). Likewise, moderate to heavy snow (depths averaging 12 to 24 inches, liquid equivalent 1 to 2 inches) in northeastern Montana supported some reduction of the state’s persistent long-term drought. Conversely, southern Kansas remained locked in the same drought which has held a firm, intensifying grip on the southern Plains. However, additional detailed assessment of data coupled with information from the field led to a minor adjustment of the Extreme Drought (D3) which slices over the south-central U.S., with the depiction shifted slightly east from southeastern Colorado into western Oklahoma to reflect the updated information.

West

Outside of bitter cold, snowy weather in the northeastern corner of the region, warm and mostly dry conditions prevailed. In Montana, moderate to heavy snow (depths averaging 12 to 24 inches, liquid equivalent 1 to 2 inches) in northern and eastern portions of the state supported some reduction of the state’s persistent long-term drought. Meanwhile, an increasingly poor Water Year as well as historically low mountain snowpacks led to the continuation or expansion of dryness and drought. In southwestern Colorado, Severe Drought (D2) was expanded slightly to the northeast of the San Juan Mountains, as the southwestern corner of the state continues to wrestle with sub-par season-to-date precipitation (locally less than 25 percent of normal since October 1) and very poor mountain Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) for spring runoff. More notably, D3 was added in northern New Mexico where SWE’s are at or near 0. In fact, similarly abysmal SWE’s encompass much of the Four Corners States into northern Nevada and — to a lesser extent — the Sierra Nevada. The Drought Monitor and local experts will continue to closely monitor the snowpack situation over the upcoming weeks. Exacerbating the situation has been the very poor Water Year, with precipitation-to-date totaling less than 25 percent of normal over large tracts of southern California and the Southwest; Severe Drought (D2) was expanded accordingly to reflect the driest areas. Conditions also have begun to slip farther north as well. Moderate Drought (D1) was added to Oregon and northern Nevada, where precipitation during the current Water Year has slipped below 50 percent of normal and mountain SWE’s are in the 10th percentile or lower.

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http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DroughtSummary.aspx

[Vogon_Glory]

1. Will We See The Dustbowl Return?

I usually drive through the Texas Panhandle at least once a year. Although I was decades too young to see it myself, I keep wondering if we’ll see drought conditions intense enough for the Dust Bowl to make a comeback.

[hatrack]

2. Considering how rapidly the shelterbelts are coming down . . .

That alone won't determine it, but we're sure as shit eliminating one effective safety system just as fast as we can operate bulldozers:

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Today, due to improved agricultural technology, a subsidized marketplace that incentivizes fencerow-to-fencerow planting, and a waning conservation ethic among Plains farmers, many if not most of those shelterbelts have been systematically removed: cut, burned, and buried where they stood. In Nebraska alone, 57 percent of the original PSFP plantings have been cut back or lost altogether. To many, “FDR’s trees” are simply no longer necessary. Yet many agroforestry officials, noting a bleak climate-change forecast for the Plains and the ongoing conversion of prairie to cropland, worry farmers may be tearing out their last line of defense when they need it most.

“My big concern is that we’ve got all these wonderful new technologies like no-till systems and cover crops that should ideally provide us a lot of protection against an extended drought like the great Dust Bowl,” says John Duplissis, rural forestry program leader for the Nebraska Forest Service. “But if we get an extended drought again like the Dust Bowl, you’re not planting cover crops, your no-till is drying up and blowing away, and we’ll be back to that bare-soil situation that was so much of those dust storms that occurred during the 30s. Trees really still need to be part of that system.”

The calls trickled in as rumors of the slated demolition of Nebraska’s first PSFP shelterbelt near the small town of Orchard circulated about Antelope County. But during the week of May 10, 2017, as bulldozers toppled the grand old cottonwood trees, and later still, as workers doused them with gasoline and set them aflame just yards from the official state historical marker, the main line at the Nebraska State Historical Society “was ringing off the hook,” says Jill Dolberg, deputy state historic preservation officer — all of them locals hoping to somehow halt the destruction. "They were so sweetly distressed about this loss of history, but there was nothing we could do for them,” Dolberg says. “We don’t have any control over private property rights.”

Last April, a farmer named Brian Smith purchased the land. With no legal obligation to the state, he tore out Nebraska’s most celebrated shelterbelt to put a few more acres into production. Today, despite highway signs still indicating an historical site one and a half miles north of Orchard, visitors will find little more than a newly planted wheat field, green despite a summer of intense drought. Like most farmers, Smith irrigates the land. When reached for comment, he hung up the phone.

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But perhaps the biggest culprit is modern agricultural technology, especially center-pivot irrigation and no-till methods. When the PSFP planted its first tree — an Austrian pine — near Mangum, Oklahoma, in March 1935, farming relied entirely on the rain. All farmers were dryland farmers. A summer of drought meant almost total crop failure. Today, however, farmers can essentially produce the rain themselves. Blessed with an abundant supply of groundwater from the Ogallala Aquifer and the means now to pump and spray it evenly across their fields, farmers no longer face immediate economic crisis in a summer of drought, especially when coupled with Federal Crop Insurance and other securities offered through the Farm Bill.

Furthermore, the design of center-pivot irrigation, popularized in the 1960s, often requires farmers to remove at least a portion of their shelterbelts. As the name implies, center pivots rotate from the center. But cropland has long been divvied up in squares. In order for the pivot to make a full circular rotation, at least a portion of each side of the square must be totally cleared. Many of the shelterbelts remaining in the plains today — originally stretching a half-mile or more along section lines — have been carved apart, a large portion now missing in the middle. More often, however, farmers opt to remove the belt completely. The recent advent of the “swing arm,” an appendage that folds out from the center pivot when rotating around the corners, virtually requires it.

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http://www.circleofblue.org/2017/world/uprooting-fdrs-great-wall-trees/