Megadroughts to plague the Southwest as climate warms, study says

[bronxiteforever]

By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
Published 1:32 p.m. ET July 25, 2019

They're coming back.
Megadroughts – defined as intense droughts that last for decades or longer – once plagued the Desert Southwest. In fact, from the 9th to the 15th centuries, at least a dozen medieval megadroughts occurred across the region, scientists said.

Now, a study suggests that because of the drying influence of climate change, megadroughts could return to the region...Why is this? During the time of the medieval megadroughts, increased energy from the sun was, of course, caused by natural climate variability. But today, the world is experiencing increased dryness in many locations because of human-caused climate change, which is setting the stage for an increased possibility of megadroughts in the future through greater dryness, researchers say.

“Because you increase the baseline (dryness), in the future when you have a big La Niña, or several of them in a row, it could lead to megadroughts in the American West,” Steiger said.
An expert not involved with the study praised the work: "What’s new here is they are really putting the pieces together in a way that hasn’t been done before,” Connie Woodhouse, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona, told National Geographic. The study was published Wednesday in the peer-reviewed journal Science Advances.

More here

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/07/25/megadroughts-predicted-return-southwest-due-climate-change/1826353001/

[Moostache]

1. Does this mean Minnesota gets Mississippi's politics too?

Looks like inheriting the climate from the Gulf is baked into the equation, bad pun fully intended...but can we at least remain free of Red State Fever spreading? Or is that why Trump is so confident that he will win Minnesota?

[bronxiteforever]

3. The question is how many Mississippi

Climate refugees will Minnesota take in? Build a wall!

[Kali]

2. Could return???

Been in one for the past 20-30 years.

[bronxiteforever]

4. Agree.Add 70 million people now in the Southwest

Also-Science Be Dammed: How Ignoring Inconvenient Science Drained The Colorado River,” scientists warned about promising water to too many people in the Southwest, but were sidelined by politicians looking to grow crops and cities. That led to inflated figures in the compact that plague water managers today. The original sin was putting more water on paper than existed in the real world.

That problem has been made clear by a 19-year drought that caused the river’s biggest reservoirs — Lakes Mead and Powell — to drop to their lowest collective volume since they were filled. Studies have shown climate change already sapping the Colorado River’s flow, causing more evaporation, and shrinking the snowpack that feeds it.

Everyone knows climate change is a big deal but the efforts and the steps that we’re taking are incremental steps that aren’t getting us where we need to get fast enough,” said Jen Pelz, wild rivers program director for the conservation group WildEarth Guardians. The incremental approach works when you have many parties trying to come up with a solution and unwilling to give up too much in a compromise, Pelz said. The revolutionary approach requires an acknowledgement that real danger exists.

“I think the Colorado River is in deep danger,” Pelz said.

https://www.krcc.org/post/southwest-water-managers-grapple-climate-change-can-grand-bargain-work

[Mountain Mule]

6. I live in the Four Corners which has been an epicenter for SW drought these past 17 plus years

Last edited Fri Jul 26, 2019, 12:51 AM - Edit history (1)

We have had a drought that has gone on for an unusually long period before we finally got relief thanks to last winter's supercharged dump of snow up in the southern Rockies. I am not optimistic about the drought actually breaking, however. We would need a pattern of consistent average to above average precipitation over the course of at least 5 to 6 years in a row, and I just don't foresee that happening. In large part this is because our temperatures have easily been averaging 7 to 10 degrees above normal winter and spring, summer and fall.

The SW monsoon was late this year, but it finally showed up with a shower of rain and exceptionally high humidity for our SW location. As most here probably know, the increased air temperatures mean that the warmer atmosphere will hold more water than a colder one can. Today when I went outside, it felt as humid as it does back East in Kentucky where I am originally from - worse even. I'm now back inside after being chased in by the overly warm, muggy conditions with very little rain to show for it. Instead, we now tend to get big thunderstorms with plenty of lightening and only a trace of precip or none at all. I live out on the grasslands and I am very concerned that we are going to have a huge range fire like the ones which have already struck in Nevada and California.

EVERYONE in the West want more water from the Colorado. Cities on the Colorado Front Range already divert a significant portion of the Colorado River's water, and cities in the Colorado's Lower Basin like Phoenix and Tucson are after more water as well. We have first generation water rights where I live, but I don't think that even senior water rights will allow us to withstand the depredations of the major urban areas in today's West. Denver has been growing like a cancer across the plains and Colorado Springs has probably tripled in population since I waved goodbye to it 14 years ago.

They'll have to give up on Powell - no two ways about it. Once Lake Powell is gone, it will only be a matter of time before Mead reaches dead pool and Colorado agriculture will only be a memory. Ultimately, the major metro areas are going to see a reduction in population due to lack of water brought on by drought and over-use of the region's precious water. I live just a few miles away from the Cliff Dwellings at Mesa Verde National Park. There are pottery shards and crumbling ruins everywhere. I often go out for long walks when the temperatures finally come down in the evening and I ponder how fate seems to have intertwined with the human societies which once flourished here.

I think it will be a very long time - if ever - until they flourish that way again.

[bronxiteforever]

7. Thanks for posting Mountain Mule,very informative.

I knew the population of the Southwest grew but I did not know by how much.
I read this US Geological Survey from 2016 that was focused on SW population growth from 1900 to 1990. I guess you now add Colorado to Arizona and Nevada. The last 2 paragraphs of the survey read as follows:

The population of the Southwestern United States has increased by approximately 1,500% over the last 90 years, while the population of the United States as a whole has grown by just 225%. In the Southwest, Arizona and Nevada have led the way with increases of 2,880% and 2,840%, respectively. The metropolitan area in Nevada that is responsible for this growth is Las Vegas (Clark County). Clark County had a 90-year growth rate of 22,480%, growing from 3,284 people in 1900 to 741,459 people in 1990. Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona, had a 100-year growth rate of 10,275%, with most of that growth occurring between 1960 and 1990.

Considering both the local factors and the general population increase that the southwestern United States has seen over the last 90 years, and assuming that growth will continue, it is easy to see why plans for the future are necessary. Water and natural resources need to be managed to accommodate the future growth and economies need to be examined to ensure a healthy environment.

https://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/changes/anthropogenic/population/

[Mountain Mule]

8. Wow! A 1,500% population increase in the last 90 years!

I knew that the SW has boomed. but I didn't know that it was by so much. Thanks for the link!

[bronxiteforever]

9. You are welcome!

[progree]

5. God will save us

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142345533    (thanks Judi Lynn )
'In God We Trust' going up at South Dakota public schools

Photo: Adam Fondren, AP
IMAGE 1 OF 4
This July 23, 2019 photo shows "In God We Trust" stenciled in a wall at South Park Elementary in Rapid City, S.D. When students return to public schools across South Dakota this fall there should be a new message displayed in a common area, a cafeteria, entryway or other prominent location. A new state law that took effect this month requires all public schools in the state's 149 districts to paint, stencil or otherwise display the national motto "In God We Trust." The South Dakota lawmakers who proposed the law said the requirement was meant to inspire patriotism in the state's public schools. (Adam Fondren/Rapid City Journal via AP)

emphasis and emoticon added