As Good A Take As I've Seen On Willow, And The Mindset It Represents

[hatrack]

EDIT

Extreme change is happening much, much faster than we thought. Water and food shortages are already here. With dozens of events — including the frequency of winter tornadoes tripling in the American South — popping up every day, it’s clear we are dealing with a “right now” time frame. Nonetheless, governments, leaders of industry, the banking world, and large swaths of the news media have so far reacted like the blank-faced firemen in Pleasantville.

Just earlier this week, the Biden administration signaled that it would approve the Willow oil drilling project on federal land, a project that will release over nine million metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere — the equivalent of putting an additional two million cars onto the road. The administration is doing it under the Jamie Dimon–backed premise that more fossil fuels are required in order to eliminate fossil fuels.

At first blush, every aspect of this move reads as madness. But I believe this decision, and the almost total lack of curiosity or concern surrounding it, demonstrates something much more dangerous than foolishness or imbalance. It shows that many entrenched political forces can only understand the rapid warming of the planet as just another issue that polls indicate some people are concerned about. For these leaders, the climate crisis is placed neatly against traditional concerns, such as the economy, rising gas prices, or an angered donor class. It’s a level of institutional blindness and warped incentives that should scare the crap out of all of us.

Let me be clear: I’m not saying that leaders, CEOs, or media members who fail to take in the reality of this consequential moment are necessarily all “bad people,” but instead were selected by and have thrived in a reality that no longer exists.

EDIT

https://jacobin.com/2023/03/adam-mckay-climate-change-emergency/

[bucolic_frolic]

1. It's not unwise, politically

It gives Biden cover from pro-oil Republicans, he has something to point to that he is pro-growth as conventionally understood, and he did not stand in their way.

Meanwhile, environment groups challenge the decision in court. That should tie it up for awhile, and sometimes these groups prevail in the long run, which is well past the 2024 election.

[News Junkie]

3. Saving the planet comes ahead of impressing pro-oil Republicans

who aren't going to give Biden credit in any event.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. but if Biden's not re-elected, it all goes up in smoke

[News Junkie]

6. If you truly believe the planet is dying

you don't approve this disaster because it might impact your approval rating, raise the price of gas, you might lose in court, etc.

I question if this even helps him politically, anyway. The pro-oil crowd will not not be backing Biden.

[CrispyQ]

2. We seem unable to visualize just how drastically we're changing our environment

& the scope of change coming our way.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. exponential growth catches up with you

[orthoclad]

8. True. Our brains

are not wired to perceive this type of threat. Evolution taught us to deal with tangible, immediate threats, like a predator stalking us or an empty belly rumbling or an enemy tribe encroaching. When we lose homes and lives to floods, fires, and storms, it's hard to see the connection to the source of the threat, which is revealed in dry graphs and sometimes satellite images of melting ice.

Think of how hard it was to convince people that tiny, invisible germs cause disease. I read that doctors were outraged at being told to wash their hands before surgery. And that was just "germ theory" vs "established opinion", without a huge body of vested wealth interests opposing germ theory.

But the oiligarchs are already convinced of the threat. Exxon's own scientists accurately predicted the temperature rise over roughly the last 40 years. Exon buried the science, but a lot of wealthy people started buying compounds and bunkers in remote places like New Zealand. Here's a report on billionaire preppers:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prepper-bunkers-apocalypse-survival-richest-rushkoff
"...billionaires are buying up luxurious bunkers and hiring military security to survive a societal collapse they helped create..."
The people who created this disaster understand the consequences, but they are spending lots of money to confuse and distract us while they prepare.

Somehow we need to visualize the the threat of the current Sixth Mass Extinction, already in progress due to petrochemicals, as a predator on our trail. It's currently out of sight, but we can hear and smell it. We need to put it in terms our brains can conceive.

[CrispyQ]

10. That was a great article!

A friend told me in her area, northeast US, the wealthy are buying caves. Not sure where she got that info or if it's true, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[orthoclad]

11. A rich prepper commune in NJ

After I saw that Guardian article, I read another one where a prepping specialist was building a whole mini-community somewhere in New Jersey. Walls, security, infrastructure, farms, the works. The journo who wrote had to go through some sort of security so he couldn't pinpoint the location.

I'll try to find that reference. But meanwhile here are a few others:

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/feb/15/why-silicon-valley-billionaires-are-prepping-for-the-apocalypse-in-new-zealand

https://www.dw.com/en/new-zealand-the-ideal-spot-to-ride-out-the-apocalypse/a-58826995

"An armed guard stands at the entrance of the Survival Condo Project, a former missile silo north of Wichita, Kansas, that has been converted into luxury apartments for people worried about the crackup of civilization."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/30/doomsday-prep-for-the-super-rich

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/88712766/super-rich-preppers-buying-up-in-new-zealand-in-case-of-us-collapse

This one is global
https://www.loveproperty.com/gallerylist/62489/billionaire-bunkers-to-survive-the-end-of-the-world

This one looks like the Beverly Hillbunkers. Swimming pools, movie stars.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimdobson/2020/03/27/billionaire-bunker-owners-are-preparing-for-the-ultimate-underground-escape/?sh=18b451124e12

Most of them seem to be more worried about social unrest than nuclear war. The rich know they've screwed things up, and they think their money makes them immune. Except for how they'll control their private armies.

We're heading for warlord territory.

[Delphinus]

13. And

my question is: who wants to come out of their bunkers into the world after it collapses? I see a pharmacy in my area selling potassium iodide, I guess to help with radiation, and I think, nah, if we get nuked, I'll soak it up so I can die as quickly as possible.

As to your earlier post, replying about exponential growth, you said it very well - makes it understandable.

[orthoclad]

15. Exponential threats

You're right, we don't have the wiring to react to threats which grow exponentially. Look at the pandemic. We could have saved a million US lives with early and effective action, intervening before the "knee" of the curve. Instead, we let infected early cases disperse around the country and seed the virus all over. After all, it was only a few cases then. Our brain tends to react in linear, not exponential, terms. And having a sociopathic moron in charge didn't help.

Small actions early in the curve have large effects later. By delaying, effective action requires orders of magnitude more effort.

The bunker boys are thinking more along the lines of social unrest. I imagine them thinking of roving gangs of "thugs" defeatable by their private armies. But that rich prepper commune in NJ had the more effective idea of re-creating a survivable community in general ecosystem collapse. A Galt's Gulch libertarian let-the-world-burn attitude, as opposed to taking action to stabilize the world.

Personally, I like the idea of distributed nodes of resilience. Solar microgrids, truck gardens, etc. Look at the example of the town with some solar power in Puerto Rico after Maria; that saved lives. But this will not take the place of a society capable of delivering insulin to those who need it.

I always thought I'd head for an exposed high point if the nuclear attack alarms went off. Potassium iodide would help in case of a nuclear reactor accident. A lot of it got used after Chernobyl. I think it's stable enough to store for years.

[judesedit]

7. I read Biden cut the pre-arranged already in place contract by 40%

saving that environment that would've been affected. There are MANY oil contracts out there already just sitting, waiting to be dug to make the oil companies and cronies the most money at our expense.

Like the Afghanistan withdrawal that had been set up by the Dump, Biden gets blamed for this stuff

[Delphinus]

14. I understand

that to be the case too. I admit to being shocked by it going through until I read that.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

9. "... a project that will release over nine million metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere"

For comparison purposes:

https://www.iea.org/news/global-co2-emissions-rose-less-than-initially-feared-in-2022-as-clean-energy-growth-offset-much-of-the-impact-of-greater-coal-and-oil-use.

"Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew in 2022 by 0.9%, or 321 million tonnes, reaching a new high of more than 36.8 billion tonnes, according to the report"

Using this article's numbers, which sound far too low for me:

9,000,000/368,000,000,000 = 2.44e-5

2.44e-5 * 365 = .008

By that number this project represents just minutes worth the carbon we're currently generating worldwide.

600M Barrels (number that's bandied about as expected extractable amount) is roughly 1 weeks of oil on the global scale as we use about 85M bbl/day's worth as a planet.

Alternatively, if we take an environmental groups numbers, which sounds more correct to me:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/14/controversial-alaska-oil-drilling-heres-what-you-need-to-know

"It is projected to release 260 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide"

Which is 260,000,000/368,000,000,000 = 7.06e-4

and 7.06e-4 * 365 = .25

So ... even with environmental groups numbers, this entire 30 year project represents about 6 hours worth of carbon dioxide emissions, when compared on a global scale.

Something to ponder in my view.

[Brenda]

12. Referencing the last paragraph.

I’m not saying that leaders, CEOs, or media members who fail to take in the reality of this consequential moment are necessarily all “bad people,” ...

I'll say it. Because they are not stupid, ignorant or unaware of how bad things are and the rate they are getting worse. Yet those who have their hands on the levers of power, money and mass communication that could make ANY difference choose to tread slowly or tiptoe around the polls or (for some) purposely obfuscate for their own benefit.