While most attention is focused on the Arctic meltdown and its consequences to climate change, this krill collapse in the Southern Ocean illustrates the global nature GHG warming. The possible collapse of this entire fishery and ecosystem is huge, and would add chaos to the evolving effects of ocean currents, rainfall, and temperature, patterns.
I am becoming very skeptical there will be any reliable predictions of future weather patterns, for any given location. All predictions we have read from the IPCC models have not yet factored in the changes resulting from what is occurring now, in the Southern Ocean. It has been left as an unmentioned and little analyzed influence yet to be quantified, in projections of future climate.
First the Krill ~
~~ The OP article seems to indicate the population collapse is a result of loss of ice algae a primary source of food for krill, but apparently ocean acidification also poses a threat to the remaining population, and soon.
http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/2303/southern-ocean-dangerously-acidic
~~ Ocean tipping point for ocean acidification readjusted to near 2030, it appears as with many other tipping points ahead of schedule. This article adjusted from 550 ppm atmospheric CO2 concentration to 450 ppm before "irreversible and detrimental impacts to Southern Ocean marine calcifying organisms".
http://suite101.com/article/the-environmental-impact-of-the-southern-ocean-a91206
~~ Oceans absorb more than 30% of global carbon emissions.
~~ Southern Ocean is responsible for over half of oceanic CO2 absorption.
~~ Many models used in IPCC projections have not factored in the diminishing function of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.
http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/2011/report/antarctic-environment/2-2-southern-ocean.html
~~ the rate of warming of the Southern Ocean is faster than anywhere else in the world.
~~ The cold and highly saline waters of the Southern Ocean are a major contribution to all major oceans currents and circulation. In effect, influences are realized in temperature and rainfall patterns around the world.
snip ~~
The Southern Ocean is the only ocean that encircles the globe uninhibited by land masses. It flows around Antarctica, connecting the world's major southern ocean basins, and also links the surface of the ocean with the deepwater layer.74 The Southern Ocean covers an area of approximately 20.3 million square kilometres. Much of its area is 4000-5000 metres deep and its temperatures are below 0°C. Various currents form the Southern Ocean. The major current in the Southern Ocean is the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which flows mainly eastwards, although important north-south movements also occur in various water masses. The structure of the water current system is still being investigated. Recently, measurements of a deep current system 3 kilometres below the surface and flowing along the Kerguelen Plateau in the southern Indian Ocean found that more than 12 million cubic metres of cold water are transported here each second.75 This system - the Kerguelen Deep Western Boundary Current - makes a significant contribution to global ocean circulation as these deep currents transport Antarctic waters into deep layers of the major ocean basins.
end excerpt ~~
http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/5843/huge-carbon-sucking-funnels-found-southern-ocean
~~ Carbon sucking funnels sequestering carbon on the ocean floor, at possible risk from changing currents.
Losing function of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. (below)
http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/1667/oceans-losing-ability-absorb-carbon
~~ mention of two studies of less CO2 absorption into the oceanic carbon sinks. Added aside - the Southern ocean is responsible for 40% of that CO2 sequestration.
I will be very interested in the next IPCC report, to see how the newer models weigh the influences in the rapidly changing Southern Ocean. Combined with the Arctic meltdown, the new projections will be quite revealing.
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