NASA/Goddard Study Models Irreversible Collapse Of Industrial Civilization Thx To Resources, Climate

[hatrack]

A new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution. Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common."

The research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharri of the US National Science Foundation-supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural and social scientists. The study based on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics.

It finds that according to the historical record even advanced, complex civilisations are susceptible to collapse, raising questions about the sustainability of modern civilisation:

"The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."

By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past cases of collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors which explain civilisational decline, and which may help determine the risk of collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and Energy.

EDIT

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

[snagglepuss]

1. .

[malthaussen]

2. I would suggest that communications play an underlooked role...

... it appears this model is not concerned with that.

-- Mal

[Exultant Democracy]

4. We are also so close to the technological singularity that looking back-wards gets less useful

Someone looking forward using a similar technique 80 years ago would have predicted civilization crashing famine 50 years ago. That because they had no way to predict Norman Borlaug.

As we near the singularity we will see more and more Norman Borlaug type totally upsetting the apple cart of our preconceived notions about the direction in which humanity is headed.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. One thing is very different from past & one thing still an open question.

We can see the way ahead more clearly than in the past because of things like computer simulations, global satellite sensing systems, and a better understanding of history than ever before.

However, the open question is whether or not we, as a species, can unite and have the wisdom to avoid such collapses and mitigate factors such as global warming.

Unfortunately, large segments of humanity behave as if they are only a few points higher in IQ than your average Republican / neo-conman / tea-billy.

[XemaSab]

9. A few things that put us over the barrel:

We have a really shaky financial system.

We have people who are very disconnected from the land and from manual labor.

We don't have any redundancy in machinery or transportation.

Most areas are very overpopulated for the amount of available natural resources.

I'm not saying none of these things were true back in the day, but a society of peasants with horses, oxen, sailboats, and a thriving barter economy might take a severe population hit, but they're not going to *end* just because something goes wrong.

If our gasoline supply was cut off and/or dollars became worthless, what percent of the American population would be dead in a year?

[BrotherIvan]

5. I hope that everyone reads and shares the full article. What they are saying is so important.

Inequality and overuse of resources in order to maintain a small population of uber-wealthy elites is going to lead to collapse one way or another, just as it has throughout history. I really hope this becomes nothing more than an intellectual exercise because this info puts together what liberals (and I used that word very specifically) have been saying. They're not talking about in the far future, they are talking about NOW: "...global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades..." Decades.

I could rant on and on about this, but instead I will just urge anyone reading what I have written to go read the article and share it with everyone you know. Including tea baggers (though they might think NASA is controlled by the Devil or space was made to fool people into thinking there was...space) and those ignorant of history.

[ladjf]

6. Look for the 2% ers to attack this study massively. nt

[BrotherIvan]

7. Absolutely

And you won't see this in the MSM here either. The fact that they swung so far in their campaign to discredit climate change that we ended up in la-la flat earth creationism cuckoo land means they will do anything to distract.

[ladjf]

8. We've been needing some good studies along this line and I hope that there will continue to be other

The human race is so greedy that they are willing to make dumb decisions in order to get rich. However, some studies of overwhelming validity could actually wake people up to the REAL dangers facings us. At some point, bad behavior could be altered by good information.

[BrotherIvan]

10. I think for the US, one of the biggest changes was the Reagan "Greed is Good"

Now, everyone worships wealth and thinks they can achieve it. All media is geared toward celebrating wealth as the highest achievement. I don't doubt that this was the plan all along, so that now they can use the argument that standing in the way of profits is akin to Nazism. People no longer have any idea what a happy, successful, meaningful life is beyond the race for riches. Little do they know the game is impossible to win.

In many cultures, the idea of hoarding wealth is repugnant. Unfortunately, those cultures were also peaceful and were usually killed off by Imperialist devils looking to exploit wealth, resources, and people...and here we are.

[ladjf]

11. Good thinking! nt