NASA/GRL/Science - Collapse Of West Antarctic Ice Sheet Appears To Be Under Way, Likely Unstoppable

[hatrack]

The collapse of large parts of the ice sheet in West Antarctica appears to have begun and is almost certainly unstoppable, with global warming accelerating the pace of the disintegration, two groups of scientists reported Monday.

The finding, which had been feared by some scientists for decades, means that a rise in global sea level of at least 10 feet may now be inevitable. The rise may continue to be relatively slow for at least the next century or so, the scientists said, but sometime after that it will probably speed up so sharply as to become a crisis.

“This is really happening,” said Thomas P. Wagner, who runs NASA’s programs on polar ice and helped oversee some of the research. “There’s nothing to stop it now. But you are still limited by the physics of how fast the ice can flow.” Two papers scheduled for publication this week, in the journals Science and Geophysical Research Letters, attempt to make sense of an accelerated flow of glaciers seen in parts of West Antarctica in recent decades.

Both papers conclude that warm water upwelling from the ocean depths has most likely triggered an inherent instability that makes the West Antarctic ice sheet vulnerable to a slow-motion collapse. And one paper concludes that factors some scientists had hoped might counteract such a collapse will not do so.

EDIT

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/science/earth/collapse-of-parts-of-west-antarctica-ice-sheet-has-begun-scientists-say.html?_r=0

[hatrack]

1. Cross-posted to GD nt

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[defacto7]

2. NYTimes is being too subtle. These articles say it a little more directly...

West Antarctic ice melt is now ‘unstoppable,’ NASA report says

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/12/antarctic-ice-melt.html

and this one from BBC:

'Nothing can stop retreat' of West Antarctic glaciers

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-27381010

[hatrack]

3. Oh, and NPR did a just amazing job of soft-peddling the story

Very last item on the hourly summary last night.

In spite of it being (arguably) the most important story of our lifetimes, it might as well have been a story about nuns delivering balloons to an orphanage.

[happyslug]

4. NASA sounds conservative.....

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is believed to be "Unstable" since the Collapse of the North American Ice Sheet about 10,000 years ago. If the Ice Sheet slowly melts, then the NASA estimates appear to be correct, but you also have the possibility of a collapse of the same Ice Sheet, and that can increase world wide sea level almost 20 feet over night (Some people say the results will take about a month to work its way around the world, but no more).

http://www.imaja.com/as/environment/can/journal/madhousecentury.html

About 120,000 years ago, the earth saw a sudden increase in world wide sea levels of about 20 feet (based on Coral remains), then a sudden DECREASE in world wide sea levels of over 80 feet. The DECREASE is understood to reflect the Water stored in the expanding Ice Sheets that restarted at about the same time period, the real question is what caused the 20 foot INCREASE?

More on the Study of Corals:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sclerochronology

Report that Greenland's Ice Sheet did not contribute MUCH to the increase in Sea Levels 120,000 years ago:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/01/130123133428.htm


The most widely accepted theory is the Complete Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Its collapse may even have started to subsequent Ice Age by the simple release of a massive amount of rare elements into the Southern Pacific and Indian Oceans (Which today are called "Ocean Deserts" for the lack of algae, the algae shortage is believed tied in with most of the rarer elements need for life is used by Algae closer to the other Continents). The sudden release of that massive amount of rare elements (rare in the ocean, such as Iron) into the Southern Pacific and Indian Oceans may have started a algae bloom that lasted for 50 years, reducing the carbon in the atmosphere causing a reverse global warming event.

Now, what happened 120,000 years ago may have little affect today. The collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet 120,000 years ago could have been caused by an Antarctic Volcano. Now about 130,000 years ago Carbon in the Atmosphere reached levels not seen till the 20th Century and stay high till about 120,000 years ago and then collapsed:

"Starting on the right-hand side of the graph at about 140,000 years ago, the climate was about 6 degree Celsius colder than it is today. This was an ice age. Then at about 130,000 years ago, there was a quite rapid warming period until about 125,000 years ago, when the climate was, perhaps, 1 degree Celsius or 2 degree Celsius warmer than today. These short warmer periods are called interglacials"

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap01/icecore.html

From 120,000 to about 20,000 years ago, there was a long period of cooling temperatures, but with some ups and downs of a degree or two. This was the last Great Ice Age. From about 18,000 or 19,000 years ago to about 15,000 years ago, the climate went through another warming period to the next interglacial, - the current one.

Thus Carbon data indicates something happened about 130,000 increasing world wide temperatures and Carbon counts, then something else happened 120,000 years ago reversing both.

Now, while we had high amount of carbon in the Atmosphere 120,000 years ago, it was no where near today's 400 ppm:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2013/05/130510-earth-co2-milestone-400-ppm/

Thus, if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet did breakup 120,000 years ago (Strong evidence of this, but not conclusive) it was for reasons other then the high amount of carbon in the Air today (one reason could be it was the result of 10,000 years of what was higher then average temperatures, but lower then temperatures are today). i.e. moderate temperatures over a long time period, as opposed to higher temperatures over a shorter time period.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology

Just a comment that this report indicates problems worse then what NASA is saying,

[NickB79]

5. So, are we still going to claim 2C of warming is "safe"?

With less than 1C of warming from the pre-industrial age, we've already managed to destabilize an entire freaking CONTINENT of glacial ice.

And at current emission rates, it would be a miracle to stay below 2C anyway, much less 3-4C by 2100. And that's not even taking into consideration the threat of a runaway methane venting event as the Arctic permafrost thaws and decomposes, much less a significant destabilization of methane hydrates under the Arctic Ocean.

We. Are. So. Fucked.

[Nihil]

6. Kick for yet another inconvenient truth.

WAIS is not a happy bunny.

Greenland glaciers are speeding up.

We have even had flags raised about EAIS - something that was pooh-poohed here
a mere couple of years ago - yet the "leaders of the world" and their rich buddies
just don't give a shit.

"Interesting times" indeed.

[hatrack]

7. But ANTARCTIC SEA ICE BIGGEST EVER Waghhl Ungh NOT MELTING Argle Bargle!

NO WARMING IN SEVENTEEN YEARS!!!!