World temperature could rise rapidly by 2020, modelling suggests

[OKIsItJustMe]

https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2016/03/world-temperature-could-rise-rapidly-2020-modelling-suggests

[font face=Serif][font size=5]World temperature could rise rapidly by 2020, modelling suggests[/font]

10 March 2016

[font size=3]CO₂ emissions and thus global warming could rise more quickly than expected, according to a new model by University of Queensland and [link:file:///C:/Users/uqcfung/Desktop/griffith.edu.au|Griffith University] researchers.

…

It forecasts that population and economic growth combined with rising energy use per person could significantly increase global energy demand and CO₂ emissions, causing world average temperature to rise by 1.5 degrees as early as 2020.

…

“Nations at the 2015 UN Conference on Climate Change agreed to keep the rise in global average temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably limiting it to 1.5 degrees to protect island states,” Professor Hankamer said.

“Our model shows we may have less time left than expected to prevent world temperature from rising above these thresholds.

…[/font][/font]

[Gregorian]

1. Someone actually writing an honest article. You'd think the world was coming to an end.

I've got to give the guy props. And he's echoing my sentiment of "personal responsibility" combined with a few other things. And not afraid of two big words. Great. I have faith in humanity again.

This is the one that really speaks for me. It goes unheard every time- “We have successfully applied our model to world energy demand from 1950-2010 and demonstrated that increases in energy efficiency alone don’t offset the surge in in energy use per person,” he said.

Some big unanswered questions that I also find impressive. Dilemmas. Like, you don't both rebuild the nation's infrastructures AND cut down on fossil fuel emissions. So it raises questions.

[Hydra]

2. We have to voluntarily get smaller

Cut our growth rates and populations significantly and go carbon/waste neutral on newer technologies.

That's anathema for Capitalism, which is why I think we're screwed unless we have a massive change of heart on our place in the world.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. February globally was 1.35 deg C above the 1950-1980 baseline. . . nt

[GliderGuider]

4. Unfortunately, the world problem is much bigger than just CO2.

As bad as global warming is, cutting the CO2 but not our overall energy consumption still leaves us with a world that is being deforested, strip-mined and denuded of other plant and animal species. It's not the CO2 that produces those effects, it's the energy production. Cleaning up the CO2 but leaving our energy use intact just leaves us with a carbon-neutral Business As Usual.

[pscot]

5. I got a bad feeling about this

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. Yeah… I think the Press Release is a little misleading

The study is here: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149406

[pscot]

7. we're trying to square the circle

We're already bumping up against 1.5 C. The IPCC projections seem to be based on hope rather than what's actually happening. It is unusual to see population increase explicitly linked to energy demand and, by extension, CO2 release.

[NickB79]

8. As my mechanic said last time I brought my car in for brake issues

And I said I hoped it wasn't anything major:

"Hope in one hand, shit in the other, and see which fills up first."

It's shit. We're getting the shit.