With Russian help, Syrian army pushes into rebel bastion

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BEIRUT (AP) -- Backed by relentless Russian airstrikes, Syrian troops and allied militiamen on Wednesday pushed deeper into a major rebel stronghold in the northwestern province of Latakia, a day after seizing a key rebel-held town in the strategic region overlooking the coast, the government and opposition activists said.

The insurgents in the opposition-held area near the Turkish border were collapsing after the town of Salma fell to government loyalists late Tuesday. Salma's fall marked one of the most significant military victories by the Syrian military since Russia began airstrikes in the country last September to shore up President Bashar Assad's forces.

On Wednesday, government troops seized the villages of Mrouniyah and Marj Kawkah near Salma as they continued their advances in the region, aided by immense Russian firepower.

Salma, part of mountainous chains near the border with Turkey known as Jabal al-Akrad and Jabal al-Turkmen, has been under rebel control for the past three years.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SYRIA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-01-13-07-02-14

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1. America may be doomed to cooperate with Putin

By David Ignatius

Russia is emerging as an essential diplomatic and security partner for the United States in Syria, despite the Obama administration’s opposition to Moscow’s support for President Bashar al-Assad.

Russian-American cooperation on Syria now includes regular diplomatic, military and intelligence contacts. Moscow and Washington have evolved a delicate process for “deconfliction” in the tight Syrian airspace, where accidents or miscommunication could be disastrous.

Administration officials see working with Russia as the best of a bad set of options. An administration that has had trouble living with Russian President Vladimir Putin, especially after his actions in Ukraine, finds that it can’t live without him in Syria. Washington’s hope is that Putin will support U.S. efforts to negotiate a cease-fire because he concludes it’s the only way to avoid a quagmire.

“While we remain skeptical of Russian interests and intentions in Syria, we also believe that they will be an essential part of any political solution to this conflict,” one senior administration official explained Tuesday. “The degree of communication we have with them reflects that view.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-may-be-doomed-to-cooperate-with-putin/2016/01/12/799774ce-b97e-11e5-99f3-184bc379b12d_story.html

[KoKo]

2. ...1

This re working with Russia seems quite a turn for Ignatius who has always seemed very hawkish, although its been rumored he is is just a mouthpiece for some special interests.


Then there's this from the article:

For the past year, Jordanian officials have been discussing with their U.S. counterparts the creation of a forward operating base inside Syria that could be a rallying point for Sunni forces against the Islamic State. Described as a modern-day “Fort Apache,” this base would be organized by special forces from Jordan and other Western and Arab coalition partners; U.S. officials, long skeptical of such a move, appear more supportive.

This seems worrisome. Unless these are Sunni's who are considered "moderate," how would this work with the Kurds and Shia interests. But, then we've heard about "moderates" for awhile now and that hasn't quite worked out the way they thought. And, could Saudi Arabia be considered "Moderate" with young Prince bin Salman running wild?

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3. Hawkish but not overtly stupid.

The King of Jordan is one of the few that doesn't seem raving mad, so I'd try to work with him too.

I don't know how the Fort Apache idea would work out though, you need a bunch of Sunnis that want to rally around you to fight ISIS to make that work.

[KoKo]

4. ...!

Agree with what you say.

The sorting out will be interesting if Obama's Legacy is to "Get the Hell Out" and "Leave it to Them" because we have to "Deal with Afghanistan." He's looking to go out "With Style?" Leave it to the REST...I'm OUTTA HERE!

Yeah..that "Fort Apache" thing seems fraught with problems.

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5. Obama's legacy is not being the one who was dragged all the way into the middle of it.

So far.

Everybody seems to be hunkering down, or doubling down, as the case may be, but sticking with what they were doing before, sort of, anyway.

But it does seems like progress on the ground will force everybodies hand soon; if the takfiris are not collapsing, they are doing something close to it. Now the question is who wants to occupy and govern the lands formerly part of the Caliphate? That is where the King of Jordan comes to mind as a possibly useful fellow, a secular Sunni potentate of relatively sensible disposition for a muslim autocrat. He might not be the guy you want to govern the place himself, but he can probably be very helpful in setting something up and making it work, and he is highly motivated to do that. We should offer to help.

[KoKo]

6. ...!

I see where you are going:

That is where the King of Jordan comes to mind as a possibly useful fellow, a secular Sunni potentate of relatively sensible disposition for a muslim autocrat. He might not be the guy you want to govern the place himself, but he can probably be very helpful in setting something up and making it work, and he is highly motivated to do that. We should offer to help.

I could see this...but, I still worry about the Saudi's and the Kurds, Hezbollah, Iran. But, it might be the best scenario if the other Gulf States see a weakness in the Saudi's that they want to take advantage of.

I wonder if "PEACE" and end to "Death & Destruction" is even part of the equation or....if its just down to who has the most to gain from reconstruction? I suspect the latter. But, then, the region is such a mess that even if it comes down to partitioning and dividing up the spoils that if it attracts investment to rebuild and there are those to make money out of it...then, it will be good for those who are left to pick up the pieces to rebuild it all. The wealthy and those who had "other means" have already fled the place.

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7. We just are not going to be able to please everyone here.

The question is who must be clubbed into line and who must be disposed of, outlasted, or chased away.

The status quo ante will not be restored, I feel confident in saying that, but I don't expect to predict the form of what comes after, I probably will not live near long enough anyway.

One hopes so.

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11. WATCH: The King of Jordan on Trump's Muslim Ban, Saudi Tensions and Putin's Syria Strategy

WOLF BLITZER: What's your reaction to Donald Trump saying that there should be a temporary ban on Muslims coming into the United States until the U.S. can figure out what's going on?

KING ABDULLAH II OF JORDAN: Well, I think that's the same challenge that we're being pushed to at the moment with, with the group that we're talking about. We're saying to those, you know, we've had this comment given to us by the United States, that we need to allow these refugees into the country. So we're going back to the United States, where these comments have been made, saying we understand. We are trying to bring people in, but we're trying to make sure that the mechanisms are put in place. Make sure - it's never going to be foolproof, but we're going to try and make it as, as sterile as possible. but we're accepting 50 to 100 every day from an area that we know is a major danger. Obviously, it's those that are ill, the elderly, women and children. I know some people can be callous and say let all the women in. But as we saw in California and as we've seen in Paris recently, women unfortunately have been part in terms of organization of terror strikes. But we can't ignore them and just keep refugees isolated. So you've just got to be smart and you've got to, you've got to think of the heart.

BLITZER: Because Donald Trump isn't just talking about refugees. He's talking about all the Muslims on a temporary basis not being allowed to come into the United States. You're the leader, you're a Muslim, you're a major Muslim leader from a Muslim country, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. You hear these comments, your reaction?

ABDULLAH: You're into an election cycle, so I don't think it's fair for you to ask a foreign leader to, to express his opinion on candidates in your country running for election.

http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/1.697477

[KoKo]

12. ...!

That was an interesting watch of the CNN interview with Abdullah at the link:

Thanks!

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13. Yes, a sensible fellow. Wants to get along as much as possible.

A commodity in very short supply in the halls of power in the Middle East. The guy that runs Oman is the only other one I can think of.

Sorry for the Wolf Blitzer, but it's CNN.

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8. Hagel: US 'Paralyzed' in Syria by Assad Focus

WASHINGTON — The US has backed itself into a corner by insisting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad be removed from power before the Obama administration will work with Russia and Iran to fight the Islamic State group, former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said.

“We have allowed ourselves to get caught and paralyzed on our Syrian policy by the statement that ‘Assad must go,’” Hagel said at a Wednesday event hosted by the Atlantic Council.

Russia and Iran have said they are willing to join with the US in fighting ISIS, but not at the expense of Assad, a longtime regional ally for both nations. The US continues to insist that no serious discussions on working with those two nations can occur until Assad is removed.

But, Hagel said, “there cannot be, will not be, any possibility of resolution or solution until there is a platform of stability. Stability in the sense that it is stable enough, stable enough to start taking it to the next level of trying to sort out what’s going on.

http://www.defensenews.com/story/war-in-syria/2016/01/13/hagel-us-paralyzed-syria-assad-focus/78769202/

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9. The Choice for the House of Saud: Reform or Resistance?

The Middle Eastern turmoil until now spared only Saudi Arabia among the great Sunni majority countries (Libya, Egypt, Syria and Turkey preempted it). But with the continuation in the quagmire of the Yemeni war and the recent escalation with Iran after the execution of the Shia leader Al-Nimr, also the House of Saud, the owners of the country since 1744 (since the first Saudi State was founded and the alliance with the Wahhabi sect started) could be soon affected by the implosion of the post-Ottoman regional order. The free fall of oil prices and the retrenchment of the US from the area makes it difficult for Saudi Arabia to maintain the stability it enjoyed in recent decades. If the octogenarian King Salman will live enough (or otherwise his probable substitute, his favored son Muhammad bin Salman) he might have to choose between two alternatives for the Saudi political future.

Two options that are related specifically with treatment of the minorities (first of all Shia) inside Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen: the Moroccan King path or the Bashar Al-Assad one. Monarchs or dictators at the end of the day are the same: when the excluded part of the population, because of religious, ethnic, age or gender differences, ask for more inclusiveness, freedom and democracy, the autocrats have only two paths: appease or engage the dissent, that means reform or repress. If Al Saud family will chose the first will be able to remain in power in a way or another in the long run, otherwise it could risk to foment a rebellion that could even lead to a civil war exactly as is happening in Syria.

Monarchies are the last bastions of old traditional societies based on clans and dynasties, instead of citizenship and parliaments. They are not adapt to modern and globalized times, because the populations are more educated and informed, the economies are unable to defend themselves anymore from external shocks as in the past, and the natural march of liberation of human societies is unstoppable even by the worst dictatorships, as Fukuyama would remember. Therefore also Saudi Arabia, the last big absolute monarchy, together with its affiliated relatives in Qatar, Oman and United Arab Emirates, will have to come into terms with current modernity, economically, politically and religiously.

Either the country will be able to reform (and I am not talking here about some low level municipal elections in which even women now can participate, but political, economic, structural and cultural reforms) or it could risk sooner or later an implosion, as the rentier state effect of buying out the population will not be able to go on forever. A recent Gallup survey showed that Saudi Arabians are among the top most optimistic (70%) and happiest (86%) people in the world, but this could be the calm before the storm, as the low oil prices will reduce the happiness of these people quite soon, if the state banks will start to finish the money.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/01/14/the-choice-for-the-house-of-saud-reform-or-resistance/

[KoKo]

14. Very interesting read....

although it took some effort to deal with the flawed translation. Someone at "Counter Punch" should have tried to clean it up a bit.

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15. Yes to both.

He comes across a bit naive, but he nails it too, the problem with all authoritarian regimes, their weak spot, is that they are not adaptable, the word usually used is "brittle". They are all about maintaining the status quo, the same people in power, the same economic arrangements and preferences, etc. And change is going to happen, one way or another. We live in a time of very rapid change, the most rapid change in all of our history. And if you want to lead, you have to get right out in front and deal with the change as it comes.That used to be us once.

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10. Russian officers overseeing Latakia front

BEIRUT – Russian army officers have been overseeing the Syrian regime's offensive in the mountains northeast of Latakia, where pro-Assad forces have been advancing against beleaguered rebels.

On Wednesday, one day after Syrian army troops backed by Hezbollah and National Defense Force (NDF) militiamen routed rebels from their Salma redoubt, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Russian officers were supervising the regime's military operations center for the Jabal al-Akrad front.

In turn, Lebanon's Al-Akhbar newspaper—which supports the Syrian regime—confirmed that Russian officers were present near the front-lines in the northwest of the country.

"Russian officers visited the Salma front accompanied by a number of Syrian army officers and toured a number of sectors on the way to Salma," a field source told the daily.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566479-russian-officers-overseeing-latakia-front