What Putin REALLY fears: An independent Ukraine invalidates Russia's imperialistic propaganda.

[DetlefK]

As I wrote in another OP, the cultural/historical heartland of the russian civilization is the area of eastern Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. This is the geographical area where the medieval kingdom of the "Kievan Rus" was, the first russian nation.

Putin wants to restore Russia to the imperialism of the Soviet-Union, however for that he needs an argument that modern-day Russia is the arbiter on what being russian means.

And this is where Putin runs into a problem: Belarus and Ukraine are also branches of the wider russian culture, but politically independent from the modern-day country of Russia.

An independent Ukraine is living proof that Russia doesn't have a monopoly on russian culture.


https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/2/12/2075635/-Putin-uses-fabrications-about-Russians-and-Ukrainians-being-one-people-to-justify-aggression

The lies Putin’s telling these days have a very specific purpose, designed to buttress his bullying. The primary lie is that there are no Ukrainians. He denies their existence as a people, as a community that possesses a national consciousness. They’re really just Russians, you see. That’s why it’s not wrong for Vlad to remake or even erase a border that his country agreed to respect in 1994.

...

One of our country’s most highly regarded experts on Eastern Europe, Zbigniew Brzezinski, explained that “without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.” This is why Putin wants to delegitimize the concept of Ukrainianness. It’s all part of his plan to bring them under his thumb and restore his country’s status as a world power, and also perhaps shore up his political position at home in true Wag the Dog fashion.

...

Finally, Putin presented his conclusion: “I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.” Now that’s what I call an abusive partner. Thomas Friedman, in the New York Times, recently offered a slightly different phrasing that perfectly captures Vlad’s thoughts on the matter: “Marry me, or I’ll kill you.”

...

Danylo Lubkivsky, director of the Kyiv Security Forum and a former Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine, added:

Putin understands that Ukrainian statehood and the Ukrainian national idea pose a threat to Russian imperialism. He does not know how to solve this problem. Many in his inner circle are known to advocate the use of force, but for now, the Russian leader has no solutions. Instead, he has written an amateurish propaganda piece designed to provide followers of his “Russian World” ideology with talking points. However, his arguments are weak and simply repeat what anti-Ukrainian Russian chauvinists have been saying for decades. Putin’s essay is an expression of imperial agony.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Belarus not very independent. A vassal state beholden to Putin. Put down protests with Russian help.

[Walleye]

2. I remember Henry Kissinger once said, "Russia will try to take territory, always, it's what they do"

[elleng]

3. *Zbigniew Brzezinski, explained that "without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire,

but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.” This is why Putin wants to delegitimize the concept of Ukrainianness. It’s all part of his plan to bring them under his thumb and restore his country’s status as a world power, and also perhaps shore up his political position at home in true Wag the Dog fashion.'

[marie999]

4. If Canada asked Russia to put nuclear missiles in its country what would the US do?

If Ukraine joins NATO, NATO would have a 3,322-mile border with Russia and Belarus. The US has nuclear missiles in 5 NATO countries.

[DetlefK]

5. This conflict isn't about NATO. Its a future war against the EU.

What Putin really wants is to put a stop to the westernization of Ukraine. Ukraine has already adopted EU trading-regulations.

With every passing day, Ukraine moves one step away from Russia and towards Europe in an economic/regulatory sense.

With every passing day, being away from Russia becomes the new normal for Ukraine.




Putin is trying to establish his own version of the Eurozone by uniting the Central-Asian countries under one currency... controlled by a "neutral" central bank in Moscow.

Try to imagine a future 50 years from now where this russian economic empire borders on the EU's economic zone via the Ukraine-Russia-border. Russia's economic empire would be wedged between two STRONGER economic empires: EU and China.

This is what Putin fears: A Russia bordering directly on a stronger neighbor that Russia cannot bully.

To prevent that future, Ukraine's entry to the EU must be stopped.

To prevent Ukraine from joining the EU, Ukraine's westernization must be stopped.

To prevent Ukraine's westernization, Russia NEEDS TO SET A PRECEDENT RIGHT HERE AND RIGHT NOW that there will be no close relationships between the West and Ukraine in the future.