Israeli Election Update

[oberliner]

From exit polls, looking to be a 60/60 rightist/leftist split.

Should make for some very interesting coalition building.

Lapid apparently outperformed the polls significantly.

Source: News Reports

Edit to Add: Ha'aretz is saying 61/59 rightist.

[bemildred]

1. Lots of noise, I'll believe what I see.

If you have a link to exit polls, I would appreciate.

[oberliner]

2. Here's something

At this point, the split between right and left in the 19th Knesset is minimal

Initial results at 10 PM:

The Mabat exit poll prediction tonight gave Bibi Netanyahu’s Likud-Beitenu only 31 seats.

Yair lapid’s Yesh Atid — There Is a Future — is by far the biggest winner tonight, with 19 seats.

Labor received 17 seats, while Tzipi Livni took 7 seats, essentially all of them coming from Labor.

Jewish Home received only 12 seats.

Shas 11 seats.

Meretz 7

http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/likud-down-to-31-lapid-19/2013/01/22/?src=ataglance

[sabbat hunter]

16. If Bibi is smart

he will govern with a broad coalition of his own party, there is a future, Labor, and Tzipi Livini, which would give him 74 seats. Keep the religious parties out of the coalition.

[shira]

17. He's not that smart. But good idea. n/t

[shira]

22. On 2nd thought, it could happen...

It's possible now to have a coalition of Likud, Lapid, Kadima, and Yahadut ha-Torah that would avoid the need to have either Shas or Bennett.

[sabbat hunter]

40. I thought that

Kadima got 0 seats this time around.

[oberliner]

3. Here's another

In an unexpected turn of events, a Channel 10 exit poll marking the conclusion of the 2013 national elections is projecting that Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party has won 18 Knesset seats. The joint Likud-Yisrael Beitenu ticket is said to have received 31 mandates, while Labor is said to have received 17.

According to the poll, Shas is projected to have won 13 mandates, followed by Habayit Hayehudi with 12 and Meretz with six.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4335829,00.html

[1StrongBlackMan]

5. So what does this mean ...

policy-wise? More settlements, fewer settlements? More or less Palestinian dialogue?

[bemildred]

7. That may take some time to sort out.

Israeli politics makes ours looks simple.

[oberliner]

8. Will depend on the coalition formed

That process could take same time. Who will be asked to form a government? What will the coalition partners be? What deals/compromises will be made among them?

Too early to tell.

[azurnoir]

14. as pointed out that remains to be seen however my guess is that it will not mean much

Likud still took the largest majority of seats and Lapid's party is more concerned with domestic issues such as housing in Israel proper

more about Lapids party

Lapid himself responded to the surprising results by saying "Thank you" on his Facebook page.


Yesh Atid's supporters cheered upon hearing the results of the exit polls. "There is a feeling that the country has returned to our hands – to the hands of the silent majority of the middle class," said Yifat Kariv, number 16 on Yesh Atid's Knesset list. "The public said, 'This is our country, and we are not surrendering it to anyone.' The public voted for an equal share of the burden, housing and a lower cost of living."


Rabbi Shai Piron, number two on Yesh Atid's Knesset list, said "What we have here is an event on a historic scale. I want to remind everyone that a few weeks ago the polls showed we would win 5-6 mandates. Now we have to figured out what we are going to do."


Throughout the election campaign, Lapid claimed that the undecided voters may change the picture. "There were days when we thought that all is lost, particularly after Tzipi Livni (Hatnua leader) entered the arena," a senior party member said Tuesday night. "We thought the dream was over, but it is only beginning."

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4335869,00.html

[oberliner]

4. Ha'aretz Projected Breakdown

10 P.M.: Average exit poll results: Likud-Beiteinu, 31; Yesh Atid, 19; Labor,17; Habayit Hayehud, 12; Shas, 12; Hatnuah; 7; Meretz, 7; United Torah Judaism 6, Hadash 4; United Arab List - Ta'al, 3; Balad, 2.

[bemildred]

6. That looks interesting, Peres may get his chance.

November-ish in it's unconformity with predictions. Things could get wild.
Did Bibi get stuffed?

[oberliner]

9. Yes indeed!

I could not be happier - and not just because I have been saying like this would happen for quite a while now (in spite of very little agreement), but because it really presents an opportunity for a reasonable government to emerge.

[bemildred]

10. It is always gratifying when the world decides to go along with ones opinions,

I quite agree.

[oberliner]

11. Although that 1 seat may prove a problem

As it is looking more and more like 61/59 rather than 60/60 - I guess I actually could be happier if that one mandate swings the other way.

[bemildred]

12. I'm glad I don't understand it quite that well.

I'm just going to enjoy the moment thinking about how Bibi feels until tomorrow.

[azurnoir]

15. well of course the rightist bloc at present is set to take 62 seats which will give them a majority

thanks for the comment

[oberliner]

23. No it's not

Did you get that info from 972mag?

It's as wrong as the rest of the inaccurate nonsense you got from there about the election.

[azurnoir]

24. no I got it from your sources

anything else? But of course you excitedly posted before the final tallies were in troo

[oberliner]

25. Try again

We’ve now had 96% of votes counted, and still the numbers change: Shas is down from 12 to 11 and Ra’am-Ta’al is up from 4 to 5, meaning that the right/Orthodox bloc is back down at 60.

The full party lists, for now: Likud-Beytenu 31, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 15, Shas 11, Jewish Home 11, United Torah Judaism 7, Hatnua 6, Meretz 6, Ra’am Ta’al 5, Hadash 4, Balad 3 and Kadima 2.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/live-israel-votes-in-2013-elections-tv-exit-polls-and-results/

Your reaction to this exciting news is mystifying. We should be celebrating together.

[azurnoir]

26. lol so you changed the source lol

not playin except to say that none of this means squat when it comes to Palestinians period

[delrem]

27. I find it interesting that Likud-Beytenu had 42

And now according as your numbers Likud-Beytenu-Jewish_home has 42.
How is this "to celebrate"?

If I'm going to categorize this shift at all, I'll categorize it as a shift that makes the right wing program more obvious. I don't *celebrate* this so much as I *observe* it.

To be sure, larger right wing numbers were expected.

And what about Yesh Atid? You don't think that this guy, Yair Lapid, doesn't have his lines written for him -- like Saint Ron? That he isn't an actor at heart? To be sure, we'll find out more about him, but nothing so far gives me cause to celebrate.

[oberliner]

29. They don't

They only have 31, significantly lower than projected.

More stunningly - HaBayit HaYehudi (aka Jewish Home) came in either 4th or 5th place in the the voting, when as recently as three days ago they were projected to come in 2nd.

They were projected to win anywhere from 14-18 seats and ended up with 11.

[delrem]

31. You didn't read my post!

Likud-Beytenu 31
Jewish Home 11
Total = 42.

That's what I said.
Don't be so reactive.

[Ken Burch]

18. Netanyahu did NOT get stuffed...his party still has more seats than any other

(though with significant losses).

I'm glad that Meretz more than doubled its strength...also that, among the Arab parties, Hadash became the largest-single party(it's the most progressive and secular of the three Arab parties, and the least committed, from what I can see, to supporting "the armed struggle" as the primary means of Palestinian resistance...thus making it, IMHO, the most reasonable and potentially easy-to-work-with of any of the Arab parties in the Knesset.

And no, It's not likely that Shimon Peres will return to power as a result of this...he's the ceremonial head-of-state now, and well into his 80's.

[shira]

19. The majority of votes (well over 50%) went to centrist or center-left parties. n/t

[Ken Burch]

20. That's a relief.

BTW...Likud and Beitenyu had a joint slate or a dual slate that somehow cooperated with each other...does anybody know, of the 31 mandates the Likud Beitenyu won altogether, how many of those would be considered Likud and how many would be considered Bentenyu?

And, with the election over, will Likud Beitenyu hold together as a single party for any great length of time?

[eyl]

28. I expect they will hold

With this result, splitting will leave each party with to few seats (also, don't forget that a significant part of Beitenu originated in Likud in the first place),

[oberliner]

30. Yes he did

His party got significantly fewer seats than projected, and his right leaning bloc does not have enough votes to form a government. This is a worse result than was projected by anyone. In fact, the good people at 927mag said just two days ago that there wasn't a single poll that showed the rightist bloc with 60 or fewer mandates - and that is exactly what ended up happening.

[Ken Burch]

32. We may disagree about the definition of "getting stuffed" in this case.

Last edited Wed Jan 23, 2013, 02:06 AM - Edit history (1)

by me, "getting stuffed" would have meant losing to another party in the seat count.

But whatever.

The man did have a clear setback.

[delrem]

33. Yah, now he has to suck up to Jewish Home party

to retain the same number of seats.
Do you really think he's not going to do that?

[Ken Burch]

34. You're assuming I'd disagree with you.

The only thing that might hold him back...just slightly...is personalities.

Naftali Bennett used to be one of Netanyahu's aides. Nothing worse than having to cut a deal with a guy who USED to be one of your employees before he stabbed you in the back. You usually only see that kind of thing in the corporate world.

[bemildred]

39. Well, it's no epiphany.

As I said elsewhere, it reminds me of November, in that the pundits got stuffed, the right was weakened, not strengthened, and we have paused for a bit at the edge of the cliff. And as Shay says the domestic focus is interesting; not unexpected, but not what Bibi wanted to talk about either.

Meanwile events elswewhere in Asia bid fair to put this all on the back burner for good.

[Mosby]

13. Wow! Lapid's party got 19 seats!

[Ken Burch]

21. Guess it's his big moment, or something.

My sense is that Lapid sees himself as the "man on horseback" type...d'ya think he'll want to hang in there for four years as either opposition leader or ordinary cabinet minister...with compromises, negotiations, having to defer to other people, and all that?

[shaayecanaan]

37. the anti-haredi rhetoric probably helped him

He made remarks during the campaign about the ultra-orthodox youths sponging off the state. Given the rather ugly campaign ad that shas ran taking aim at Russian immigrants, my guess is that he poached a few votes off Yisrael beteinu'sRussian constituency, particularly as they may have felt that they had nowhere to go after beteinu merged with likud.

[ellisonz]

35. I'll take it as generally good news.

Israelis are more interested in living peaceful lives than military struggle.

[shaayecanaan]

36. an interesting result...

In practical terms, nothing changes. Netanyahu had 65 and now he has 61 seats. His coalition will consist of the same people as before - Shas, united Torah Judaism and Jewish Home.

Remarkably, the centre-left got 53% of the vote, but lost due to much greater fragmentation amongst its constituent parties. Had the right lost a couple more seats it would have been necessary to obtain the support of one of the centrist parties, but the chance of a left-centre coalition was never on the cards. For one thing, Arab parties won eight of the 59 seats held by the centre-left, and as a matter of principle the Jewish parties refuse to sit in coalition with the Arabs.

The issues during the campaign were very much focused on domestic issues with the centre left parties in particular staying silent on the matter of the Palestinians. To the extent that popular opinion shifted to the left it seems to have more to do the price of rent and cottage cheese rather than any Newfound embrace of the peace process.

[bemildred]

38. Yes, moving further away from clarity, that's the main thing I see.

But weakening the nutball right is always good entertainment.

[sabbat hunter]

41. This is why

they need electoral reform in Israel.

Also with the coalition you listed above, Shas, United Torah, Jewish home and the Likud bloc, it will be a fragile coalition and there probably will be elections again in the next 12-18 months.
He is better off with a coalition of the center-left parties and leave shas, united torah and jewish home out of the bloc.

[shaayecanaan]

42. Its been a durable coalition thus far...

in fact, comparatively speaking Netanyahu has been a pillar of stability compared to the punctuated tenure that his predecessors have endured.

Whether or not a centrist party chooses to join the coalition is of no great concern to him, the presence of Labor in his coalition previously has not made any real difference.

If Israel had electoral districts and a first-past-the-post voting system as in the US, most likely the right wing would have won in a landslide, due to the greater fragmentation amongst the centre-left parties.

[sabbat hunter]

43. with certain electoral reforms

it would make it harder for the smallest parties to get seats in the knesset, thus people would coalesce around less parties.
Also the center-left received 53% of the vote, which if there was electoral reform, would make it easier for them to have a coalition that would rule instead of Bibi.

Finally with only 61 votes in the Knesset Bibi will find it harder to rule and keep the coalition together. For example Shas is more concerned about domestic religious matters and making sure that the Sephardi population gets better treatment, than expanding the west bank 'settlements'. That is why they have joined left of center governments in the past.
If they do not get what they want, they could easily bolt the coalition.

[shaayecanaan]

44. It appears that I may have been spectacularly wrong about the 53% popular vote...

A bit of an arithmetical fail there for me.

The official results are here:-

http://www.knesset.gov.il/elections19/eng/list/Results_eng.aspx

Adding up the votes for the various left wing and centrist parties, I get 46.54% of valid votes cast for the centre left, and the remainder for the right.