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(32,886 posts)
Wed May 16, 2012, 07:29 PM May 2012

IMHO Way worth it but LAT: Analysis: Gay marriage decision not working in Obama's favor so far



That said, the first wave of polling is in, and the results aren’t looking particularly good for Obama. Taken together, four different national opinion surveys over the past week, by reputable organizations with good track records, indicate that the president’s stand could well hurt him politically. Unsurprisingly, the numbers are fairly close; but as often gets pointed out, tight elections are decided by small numbers of votes.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign for Obama comes from a new ABC/Washington Post poll, which found that independent swing voters had a slightly more favorable than unfavorable view of his position (though the results were a statistical tie, given the margin of error for that subgroup). ABC’s analysis, by statistician Damla Ergun of Langer Research Associates, pointed out that independents who reacted most strongly to the decision tilted against it, and that “strong sentiment can better predict voter turnout and vote preferences.”

A Gallup poll found that the overall change in public opinion was a” net minus” for Obama, though the organization cautioned that these results could change, depending on the degree to which same-sex marriage is, or is not, a campaign issue in the fall.

The latest New York Times/CBS poll showed that 26% of voters were less likely to support Obama as a result of his announcement, compared with 16% who said they were more likely to support him. But the small overall sample size and the lack of any valid sub-group data make those numbers fairly useless for purposes of predicting voter behavior. The poll did find, however, that a clear majority of Americans regarded Obama’s declaration of support for same-sex marriage as largely a political move, which doesn’t help him at all.


We're going to win this thing regardless, and then Obama is going to appoint two more Liberal justices to the SCOTUS who will be the deciding factor in an LGBT version of Loving v Virginia and that will be that.

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IMHO Way worth it but LAT: Analysis: Gay marriage decision not working in Obama's favor so far (Original Post) stevenleser May 2012 OP
blah,blah,blah, madrchsod May 2012 #1
Gay rights, etc,. was going to be an issue in the fall regardless xfundy May 2012 #2


(5,105 posts)
2. Gay rights, etc,. was going to be an issue in the fall regardless
Wed May 16, 2012, 09:57 PM
May 2012

The wack jobs can't stop thinking about gay sex OH, so much! Trends are holding on an advancing trajectory, the country's had plenty of time to see (understanding is another matter) that those who oppose equality also hold wack opinions on just about everything.

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