Supreme Court Still Mum on Prop. 8 Case

[William769]

The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet listed the case challenging California's ban on marriage equality on its Fall docket, which was released Tuesday.

Adam Umhoefer, the executive director of Americans for Equal Rights, explained in a message to supporters Tuesday that the justices are scheduled to release which cases they will not hear on Monday Oct. 1.

If the Supreme Court does not hear Perry v. Brown, a February 2012 decision finding Proposition 8 unconstitutional will be upheld, permanently invalidating Proposition 8, allowing same-sex couples to marry in California. If the court will hear the case, AFER's star attorneys David Boies and Ted Olson, will argue on behalf of the California couples suing to invalidate Proposition 8.

http://www.advocate.com/politics/marriage-equality/2012/09/25/supreme-court-still-mum-prop-8-case

[Pab Sungenis]

1. I have to wonder whether they're trying to not take it.

The way I do the math we have three solid votes to overturn Prop 8 (Sotomayor, Ginsburg, Breyer) four solid to uphold (Thomas, Scalia, Kagan, Alito) and two that could go either way (Roberts and Kennedy).

If Roberts and Kennedy decide they want to overturn it, but not go on the record as voting for teh GAY, then they might be pushing not to hear it and rely on stare decisis.

[William769]

2. If I was a betting man, I would say they are going to refuse to hear it

And let the appeals court verdict stand. I think they will hear the cases against DOMA and it will be 5-4 in out favor with at least 3 throwing temper tantrums in the dissent.

But then again, theres a reason I'm not a betting man.

[Pab Sungenis]

4. Another reason they might do that is

that way it would avoid setting a precedent. If they just refuse to take the appeal, the result will be limited to California. If the SC overturns it, the decision might overturn every anti-marriage initiative.

[ruggerson]

7. Kagan is not going to vote to uphold prop 8

What gives you the idea that she would?

[Pab Sungenis]

8. "There is no federal constitutional right to same-sex marriage."

http://www.towleroad.com/2010/05/kagan-there-is-no-federal-constitutional-right-to-samesex-marriage.html

Question: "Do you believe that there is a federal constitutional right to samesex marriage?"

Answer: "There is no federal constitutional right to same-sex marriage."

All of the arguments against DOMA and Prop 8 hinge on the Equal Protection clause. She doesn't believe the Equal Protection clause provides a right to marriage.

[Fearless]

9. That's not what that means.

There is not federal constitutional right to marriage equality. There is no federal constitutional right because it hasn't been tried in court yet. There is no interpretation yet. There will be.

[Pab Sungenis]

10. Loving v. Virginia established the Federal constitutional right to marriage.

Anyone who denies that is letting their right wing ideology color the law.

[MNBrewer]

3. THey'll have to make a decision on marriage equality SOME time, though

It's unavoidable.

[LeftofObama]

5. So, if I'm reading this correctly

If any of the equal rights related cases are not on the list that they will release on Oct. 1, then they will be hearing them at some point during this term? If that's right, then I guess we'll know for sure what we're in for on Monday.

I predicted gay marriage will be made legal in the entire United States sometime in 2013. I hope I'm right.

[Pab Sungenis]

6. That's exactly the case.

They announced that they WOULD hear certain cases, and on Monday they will announce which of the remaining cases they are denying certiorari to (refusing to hear), which means that they are going to let the lower court's decision stand in those cases.

I'm starting to think it's unlikely that they will deny certiorari, though, because there are four anti-marriage Justices on the Court, and it only takes four of the nine to agree to hear a case.

[mitchtv]

11. I would be very happy to see them leave prop 8 with the 9th circuit

Gay marriage in Calif would be game changing. socially and economically