The US Must Prepare for War Against Russia Over Ukraine
President Vladimir Putin is more likely than not to invade Ukraine again in the coming weeks. As someone who helped President Barack Obama manage the U.S. and international response to Russias initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and our effort to keep Moscow from occupying the whole country into 2015, I am distressingly convinced of it.
Why? I see the scale and type of force arrayed by the Russian military, the ultimatums issued by Putin and his officials, the warlike rhetoric that has until recently saturated Russian airwaves, and the impatience with talks expressed by his foreign minister. Add to that the likely anxiety produced in Putin by the demonstrations last week in Kazakhstanand Moscows success in tamping them down.
But the basic reason I think talks with Russia will fail is that the United States and its allies have nothing they can immediately offer Moscow in exchange for a de-escalation.
The United States must do more than issue ultimatums about sanctions and economic penalties. U.S. leaders should be marshalling an international coalition of the willing, readying military forces to deter Putin and, if necessary, prepare for war.
If Russia prevails again, we will remain stuck in a crisis not just over Ukraine but about the future of the global order far beyond that countrys borders. Left unrestrained, Putin will move swiftly, grab some land, consolidate his gains, and set his sights on the next satellite state in his long game to restore all the pre-1991 borders: the sphere of geographical influence he deems was unjustly stripped from Great Russia.
(Sorry, I just had to throw some Sabbath in here... )
Washington will take no action to prevent Ukraine from entering the NATO alliance, despite Russias urging, the United States confirmed to Russia on Monday. Its the latest sign that the tense standoff between the U.S. and its allies and Russia will continue to drag on.
In December, Russia issued a list of demands to be met before it would consider removing the 100,000-plus troops on the Ukraine border who stand poised for a potential expansion of Russias nearly 8-year-old war on Ukraine. One of those demands was barring Ukraine from joining the NATO alliance.
that they will not be going to war with Russia over the Ukraine. Extreme sanctions, supplies, arms (and perhaps some kind of dark 'proxy' conflicts) are much more likely what will occur.
(The only thing really restraining Putin at this point is some variety of internal calculus of how much 'blood and treasure' he is willing to expend to achieve what set of goals. Like any other state - his resources are not limitless. And there is always the risk of overextending. And the sanctions will hurt - in an economy that is not nearly as healthy as many in the west.)
If they were would have happened by now.
They certainly aren't joining in the immediate future.
Ukraine becomes a buffer zone. It does not join NATO and NATO doesn't put any troops in Ukraine. It is allowed defensive weapons worked out in an agreement. Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus only put token forces near their borders also worked out in an agreement. NATO does not trust Russia for good reasons, but Russia also has good reason not to trust NATO. Does anyone have a better solution to avoid a war? The Russian-Belarus border with Russia is over 1,600 miles. Russia will not stand for a 1,600-mile border with its enemy.
Is the one that avoids a shooting war.
My biggest issue is that Putin's grasp on power is slipping, he can not afford to appear weak.
We are number 1 in military with nuclear weapons and Latin America is number 2 in military with nuclear weapons. Mexico is thinking about joining Latin America. We would have an enemy along our 1900 mile border. It has attacked us numerous times.
What should the U.S. do? Ukraine has a 1200 mile border with Belarus and Russia.
On the other hand, the Russian disinformation campaign, support for Trump and cyber warfare makes me think Putin is overdue for a bloody nose.
I haven't been reading Pravda and Izvestia lately. Time to start reading them again. See what they are writing about Ukraine. Okay reading some articles. From Pravda, America has the nuclear submarine USS New Mexico headed for Russian Waters. Russian navy will intercept. Russia readies to deploy missiles in Cuba and Venezuela. From Izvestia, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov "It is primarily Washington's geopolitical project, an attempt to expand its sphere of influence by getting new instruments for strengthening its position, which Washington hopes will eventually allow it to dominate this region.". This is what the Russian people are reading and seeing on tv. Russian propaganda is like if not better than Fox and others. Even without it, the Russian people remember how many times Europe and the U.S invaded Russia, At the end of WWII, Churchill wanted England and the U.S. to invade the Soviet Union. His military told him that we would lose that war. Even though the U.S. and Russia have agreed that they won't use nuclear weapons if they go to war, if Russia sees that it will lose, it will use any means available to win.
Putin is not Russia.
I worked with Russian immigrants in local factories.
Their work ethic and pride in their work put many Americans to shame.
Very close knit.
I became friends with a few.
I would love to see these people not have to live under the fist of a handful of gangsters in Russia.
And I have the same wish for America.
As I have posted before, if the U.S. with the best military and nuclear weapons and Latin America, except for Mexico which was neutral, with the 2nd best military with nuclear weapons were enemies, and Mexico was asked to join the Latin American countries and they were thinking about it. If our enemy had a 1,954 mile border with us and had invaded us numerous times, what would we do?
Please ignore everything I have said.
I just checked your credentials, and I really do need to shut the fuck up.
Like right now.
I have absolutely no idea of what I am talking about, and you do, in spades.
My only request would be for you to post on this situation, as an op, and related subjects.
I would love to read them.
D U. Is very lucky to have someone of your level of expertise on board.
A big civilian...
When people don't agree with me and tell me why I go over what I wrote and see if I need to make changes or explain why I wrote what I did. Remember my time in the army ended 55 years ago. I did learn a lot about Russia and I have tried to keep up. I stopped reading Pravda a while ago raising a family, but I just started reading Pravda and Izvestia again. We all should read them, know your enemy, you can learn a lot by reading their articles although sometimes it's like watching Fox. I don't know how to take an article from Pravda and put it in an op. Is it the same way I did the following, I did a save and then downloaded it here. I did not change any misspelling or grammatical errors. I don't know how to link an article so I just put the whole thing in my post.
Russia is completely disappointed in the West WORLD
Moscow is disappointed with the reaction that the West has shown to Russia's proposals for security guarantees in Europe, Russia's Ambassador to the OSCE Alexander Lukashevich said following the results of the OSCE meeting held on January 13.
Russia is completely disappointed in the West
"I want to say right away that we didn't hear an adequate response or any kind of reaction to our proposals from our partners. Everything revolved around their concerns and Russia's allegedly aggressive behavior, especially in the context of the Ukrainian events, Lukashevich said.
Instead of the constructive discussion, Western officials called into question OSCE's principles of indivisibility of security. According to Lukashevich, his partners claimed during the talks that no one could influence the choice of the security system of this or that state.
Speaking at today's OSCE meeting, Lukashevich said that he could see signs of systemic degradation in the OSCE. The Russian diplomat blamed the United States and the North Atlantic Alliance for such a state of affairs.
Meanwhile, the Czech Republic would like to have peaceful and correct relations with Moscow.
"I believe that diplomatic negotiations will lead to a de-escalation of the current crisis on the borders of Ukraine, Czech Defence Minister Jana Černochová said commenting on the recent negotiations between Russia and NATO. At the same time, she stressed that NATO countries must be prepared for any scenario, including an armed conflict.
Jan Havránek, Deputy Minister of Defence of the Czech Republic, stressed that the relations between Russia and the West reached their lowest point since the Cold War.
"We cannot silently accept Russia's aggressive behavior in relation to Ukraine, our partner, nor can we take the military buildup on the border with Ukraine, he said. According to the politician, the security of all of Europe depends on the security of Ukraine.
Russia will not return troops to barracks
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov earlier said that the draft bill about a new package of US sanctions against Russia, which could affect not only high-ranking officials, but also Nord Stream 2, was a nervous breakdown that American officials had.
"In their endless assertion of their own greatness, people have reached a psychological mark that is difficult to explain, Sergei Lavrov concluded.
While the United States flatly refuses to listen to Russia, Russia refuses to listen to the United States as well. According to the Russian Foreign Minister, Russia will not even discuss the requirement of the United States to send the troops back to the barracks inside the country.
Such a requirement from Washington is unacceptable, he said.
"Now they talk not only about the need to pull back the troops from the border with Ukraine, as they say, but they also want our troops be sent back to the barracks. This is what Sherman (Wendy Sherman, US Deputy Secretary of State ed.) said, including publicly at a press conference. I don't think there is a need to explain that such a requirement is completely unacceptable. Of course, we are not going to discuss that," Lavrov said.
Lavrov also assessed the talks between Russia and NATO on January 12 in Brussels were held in businesslike fashion.
"I can confirm what we said: the negotiations were business-like. The position of the West is quite tough, arrogant at some point, uncompromising, but it was nevertheless explained calmly, in a businesslike manner, the minister said.
In his opinion, such an approach to the negotiations means that the United States will think about them
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/150045-russia_nato/
That was a great read.
And as an armchair warrior, I agree that knowing your enemy is vital, not only for military victory, but for reaching a solution without armed conflict, which is an even greater victory.
Thank you again, your insight is much appreciated.
To Radio Urkraine International, including a live stream link.
won't change the fact, or perceived fact, that Putin intends to invade Ukraine in order to take the territory. He isn't surrounding Ukraine with thousands of troops and equipment just for a Sunday stroll in the park.
All this crap about "security needs" and such is just posturing for an excuse to conquer territory that he wants back in the fold. It doesn't matter if they are a separate country now.
He won't be satisfied with any promise to keep Ukraine out of NATO, an organization based on mutual protection from the likes of Russia. Russia is meddling all over the globe in efforts to gain power, and if no one draws the line, he will keep on. Those little Balkan countries can count the number of days they remain free from Putin's power and influence.
A buffer zone sounds interesting, but Hitler also agreed to a buffer zone, and he soon overran that. It means nothing. What future does Ukraine have if it is used as a "buffer" zone for a bully like Putin? Putin isn't really afraid of Ukraine. It's just an excuse for history. He wants territory, he's going to take it, and he wants the world to think that it's the other guy's fault.
In a bizarre demonstration of the perils we live under these days, China and Russia have embraced at the Olympics in a threatening gesture against most of the rest of the world. They undoubtedly have plans soon to follow. Putin just plans to crush Ukraine and dare us to do anything about it. China has its plans for Taiwan. They chose the Olympics to announce their allegiance to one another. It's just bizarre, but it will be noted in history.
Nothing ever changes. This story has been written before, many times. Putin miscalculates when he thinks that people can't figure out what he's doing, why he's doing it, and who is going to align with him. He's running around making deals just like Hitler did.
One thing to remember is that all those very evil men and their subordinates ended up committing suicide, being hanged, imprisoned, or just getting killed. Very few actually made it out and into a decent life. Some were invited in because of their science education and abilities, but most had to run and hide continuously from people hunting them. Mengele was a big fish that got away. Eichmann made it for something like 15 years, then he was caught. And hanged.
This has very little if anything to do with poor Russian sensibilities and fear of Ukraine invading along an immense border. It has everything to do with a short, power-hungry dickhead who thinks he should rule Europe.
Once he was successful with Crimea, he probably never stopped thinking about taking Ukraine. From there, he'll set his sights on some other country that he'll declare is a threat to his new border.
I think we should immediately allow Ukraine to join NATO. I think it is folly to allow Putin to think that he can get away with occupying Ukraine. History has shown that people like this do not stop. People may declare that Ukraine isn't worth anything and isn't worth fighting for, but actually it is.
And all Putin has to do is stand down. Nobody wants to invade Russia. It is a false flag he has invented in order to have an excuse to occupy Ukraine. It's his fault. He better get those cyanide capsules ready to go, because he may end up needing them.
It only takes one country to say no. If Ukraine would be voted in, Russia and Belarus would not have any choice but to invade. They will not allow NATO to have a 3,322-mile border with them.
I am having issues with DU loading pages, so forgive me if this doesn't work right.
This is not an issue with NATO membership, if only to say that Putin doesn't want Ukraine to have any friends that will stand up for it. Ukraine wants in, and Putin took Crimea and built a bridge, so it is understandable that Ukraine is anxious for membership to happen, and Putin is not. He wants to be able to eff Ukraine, and it does not have anything to do with fear of Ukraine, but rather fear of NATO.
If he takes Ukraine, it puts HIM up against NATO countries that he can menace to his heart's content. He will STILL have a border with genuine NATO countries. The only reason he hasn't completely ringed Ukraine with troops and equipment is precisely because those NATO countries say no, and they have friends that can back them up if need be.
Perhaps Ukraine doesn't have the votes as we are talking here tonight. They wanted in before, and the process is long and slow. But, then, what is the logic of Putin stating that one of his cardinal demands on the Ukraine crisis is to keep them out of NATO? Surely this means that he knows that at some point Ukraine will have the votes for the protection it obviously needs.
If he weren't sitting there poised to invade as soon as his excuse is worded correctly, then he wouldn't have the problem he now has of NATO countries and others supplying Ukraine with weaponry and resources. That tends to happen when people don't want a takeover of Europe. It has only been, what, 77 years or so, since the end of WWII, so their memory is long and hard against anything like that happening again in a do over--same shit, different aggressor--and it may not matter if Ukraine is a member or not. They may have friends anyway.
I'm all in favor of sanctioning Russia swiftly, hard and convincingly, if it can make him stay out of Ukraine. It doesn't have to be this way, except that we have a history now of his election meddling, corruption, and previous invasion of Crimea. He's not a friendly guy to anyone situated in a country that he wants.
You have to ask yourself what 2014 and Crimea means to this situation. There was no NATO and long border complained of at that time. There was the excuse that there were Russian citizens who wanted to be annexed. As if...
Let me repeat, after a bloody and vicious WW, the fact that some countries favored taking Russia out does not mean that anyone wants to do that today. But, Russia has ill intent and has not done anything to change its persona.
And, I don't really understand your comment that Belarus and Russia would have no choice but to invade. For what reason? The fact that joining NATO would prevent them from invading? There is always a choice--peace or war--and I think that Belarus will eventually understand what they have given up.
I'm a former 98G, my friend, and I respect your service. We just disagree about what's going on here. I think we are walking right up to the door of WWIII, and it will be Putin's fault. Russian citizens don't want that, American citizens don't want that, but apparently Belarus and Putin do.
And after all that work he did with Trump, he is probably disappointed that he can't get us to back down. He should declare his exercises over, pack up and go away from the border.