Teams Don't Need a Dominating Defense to Win in the Modern-Day NFL

[Jamaal510]

They just need a defense that creates turnovers.

Turnover stats:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake

-Teams that led in turnover differential made the playoffs.
-Teams that were negative in turnover differential sat at home (except for SD and GB, but they were almost unable to make the playoffs, anyway).

[KamaAina]

1. But wouldn't a defense that creates turnovers be considered dominating?

[Jamaal510]

2. Let me rephrase that: you don't need a top-ranked defense.

Just look at the Pats. They get beaten to a pulp up and down the field every game and are near the bottom in overall defense, but they always seem to force a turnover when they need it most. What keeps them afloat is that they are consistently near the top of the league in turnover margin.

[ProfessorGAC]

3. Define Top Ranked

Actually, the football equivalent of sabermatricians have been publishing models for years now that defense hasn't been the reason why really offense wins championships.

I'll try to find that analysis. I'm not sure if i saw it on a stat site or whether when of my fellow math geeks (but professional math geeks) emailed it to me.

Think about it empirically. Ravens a few years back won on defense. Dilfer was the QB. Had to be the D.

Maybe last year. But it wasn't like they held their opponent down. The Niners scored, especially in the 2nd half.

The 49'ers won 5 SB's. One year they had a truly excellent defense. The rest. Good, yes. Great no. The Bears had one the best ever. They won one, but they scored 46 in that game. And, they scored well over 400 points that year. (BTW: As someone who watched that whole season, it's a myth that the defense gave the ball to the offense in great field position all the time. The Bears were second in the league in scoring drives of more than 70 yards.) So, even they were dominant because they were REALLY good on both sides of the ball, not one.

Patriots have won 3. Defense is as you said.

This study, which i hope to find, showed the defense gets you to the playoffs, but since most teams have at least an average defense, the real key to winning a championship is being able to score against above averave defenses.

Even the old schoolers like Tom Jackson now say offense wins championships.


GAC

[JonLP24]

4. Here is an article

from my favorite stat site and he makes the same point

Top Offenses > Top Defenses

In terms of SR and EPA, the best offenses are "better" than the best defenses in terms of performance. And in terms of WPA, the best offenses have bigger impacts on game outcomes than the best defenses do. This is something I wrote about three years ago, when I noticed that the distribution of yards-per-play efficiency was wider for offenses than for defenses. Now, in terms of more advanced statistical measures in a broader set of data, the same trend holds.

A variable's standard deviation (SD) is a measure of the width of its distribution. The ratio of the SD of offensive SR to the SD of defensive SR is 1.25. The ratio for EPA is 1.27. And the ratio for WPA is 1.26. Offenses are spread out 25% wider than defenses in terms of performance and impact on outcomes.

The reason, I suspect, is that most of the offense flows throw the QB or RB. The QB in particular is singularly critical to offensive success. The QB is responsible for much more than just throwing passes. He calls audibles, reads the defense, calls blocking assignments, and is responsible for organizing and managing the offense. Nearly every play an offense makes is heavily dependent on the skill of a single player.

On defense, success depends on a more equal division of responsibility. The wider the division of responsibility, the more "average" the success of the squad. In individual-player sports such as tennis or golf, individuals can dominate the field for many years. Federer or Woods did not have their talent level diluted by less dominant teammates. A five-man bball team can be "star-based" because there are only four other players to dilute the skill of the star.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/01/top-offenses-top-defenses.html

He has a glossary if you don't know what EPA is and he explains what is and the math involved.

Last season Denver & San Francisco had two of the top defenses in the NFL and Baltimore who was below average defeated them both.

[joeybee12]

5. Seems to me you do need to to win it all...

Last two years the better defenses won the super bowl...you don't win as many games during the regular season, but defenses dominate in the playoffs.

[JonLP24]

6. You can't mean Baltimore

Denver (they sure as hell don't this year) & San Francisco were the top 2 of the top 3 defenses Baltimore was 16 but they outperformed their regular season numbers on both sides of the ball. I think Flacco posted a 12 ypa for the whole post-season which is one of the highest, if not highest mark ever.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/01/2012-team-efficiency-rankings-final.html

The year before that New England and NY Giants defeated the better defenses San Francisco & Baltimore (whose D was really good that year)