Survey Predicts Huge Amount of Non-Religious Americans by 2035

[trotsky]

http://bigthink.com/stephen-johnson/the-us-is-losing-its-religion-and-faster-than-you-may-think

The U.S. has been steadily losing its religion for decades. For the most part, Protestants have been leaving the church while the affiliation rates among Catholicism and other religions in the country have remained stable. But since 1990, Americans have been abandoning both belief and religious affiliation at such a fast pace that, by 2035, it's likely that 35 percent of the population will have no religious affiliation — outnumbering protestants.

In an article posted on his blog, Allen Downey, a professor of computer science at Olin College, used historical data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to generate predictions about the future of religious belief in the U.S., each with a 90 percent confidence interval.

Downey wrote:

“According to the Theory of Secularization, as societies become more modern, they become less religious. Aspects of secularization include decreasing participation in organized religion, loss of religious belief, and declining respect for religious authority.

Fascinating.

[Act_of_Reparation]

1. Woot!

I'm gonna start a bowling league. You guys in?

[trotsky]

2. Maybe by then someone will start worrying about how to keep non-believers in our "big tent"? n/t

[NeoGreen]

7. We need a movie: "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Reality" (nt)

[Act_of_Reparation]

9. It'd be nice to feel valued, you know.

I mean, it's not like we're the most reliably Democratic voting bloc or anything.

[guillaumeb]

3. Have you ever heard of confirmation bias?

I am simply asking.

So one blogger predicts something, and further states that he is 90% confident. Fascinating indeed. Does he also pick stocks?

[trotsky]

4. "Allen Downey, a professor of computer science at Olin College"

Bit more than a "blogger." And he writes:

"Until recently the United States has been a nearly unique counterexample, so I would be a fool to join the line of researchers who have predicted the demise of religion in America. Nevertheless, I predict that secularization in the U.S. will accelerate in the next 20 years.”

So you're kind of stuck in a strange spot here, g-man. He agrees that it would be foolish to predict the demise of religion. That's what you've been screaming at everyone, despite no one actually making that claim.

[MineralMan]

5. Sure. I see evidence of it every day. People post from

websites they agree with all the time. Hmm....

[guillaumeb]

17. Or they post their own opinion pieces.

The ultimate in confirmation bias.

[MineralMan]

20. My favorite posts on DU are those

written by DUers that are their own opinions. It takes nothing to copy and paste someone else's words, but writing your own opinion requires thought and effort. I appreciate that, even if I disagree with the post.

[kimbutgar]

6. Because those who practice evangelical Christianity nowadays are phonies who do not really

Practice the word of Jesus by loving their neighbors, being their brother’s keeper and welcoming the stranger in their homes. Personally I am turned off when I hear someone spouting they are Christian. And don’t get me started on the phoney prosperity gospel types like Olsteen, Franklin and those other christofascists who support twitler.

[NeoGreen]

8. Exhibit A: Roy Moore (nt)

[HopeAgain]

10. Such a trends would seem hard to predict

A 27 year trend line doesn't mean much for something that has been with us since the beginning of recorded history, and I think these trends are likely to persist only if the dominance of fundamentalism of the last 25-30 years continues. If religions correct away from extremism (which I think has to include evangelical Christianity) that might well change. The rise of more religion-states (heaven forbid) could also affect this as well world-wide.

I agree that although religion could possibly all but disappear, individual spirituality could replace it ("Although religion seems to be dying out in the U.S., other forms of spirituality might be just as present as ever" ).

[trotsky]

11. That's why it is looking at trends in the USA, not "since the beginning of recorded history."

FYI.

[HopeAgain]

16. My point is that current trends are undoubtedly a result of other historical factors

and 27 years is a very small sample size. I am not arguing it will or wont change, but that it seems it would be hard to predict with many factors, including the possibility of a rebound based on changed circumstances.

[trotsky]

22. Lots has happened in the last 27 years.

Amazing social progress has been made in the acceptance of LGBT equality. Same sex marriage is legal in all 50 states! 27 years ago I doubt you could have found anyone who thought it was possible.

[HopeAgain]

23. And hopefully it will continue...

But if we have another large scale radical Muslim terrorist attack like 911, or if a liberal Christian movement rises to successfully challenge the dominance of the evangelicals, than who knows? Churches might just make a comeback in a bad way or a good way.

[yallerdawg]

12. The rest of the story:

Although religion seems to be dying out in the U.S., other forms of spirituality might be just as present as ever.
A 2014 Pew study found that, between 2007 and 2014, the percentage of Americans who felt a "deep sense of spiritual peace and well-being" had increased from 52 to 59 percent, while the percentage of those who felt a "deep sense of wonder about the universe" increased from 39 to 46 percent.

We have a sense of failure regarding all institutions - but this suggests the yearning is still there, and who knows what is next?

[trotsky]

13. How do you square that with your insistence that talking negatively about religion...

will scare people away from the party?

You admit here that people are interested in spirituality, but NOT religion.

Congrats, you just defeated yourself.

[yallerdawg]

14. Is this the plan?

Whatever I comment or cite you're going to declare "confirmation and victory?"

More squirming:

[trotsky]

15. When you comment something that contradicts what you've said before,

yep!

[guillaumeb]

18. Yes indeed, that is the plan, or the pattern.

Soon will come comments about humiliating yourself and other dialogue promoting rhetoric.

[yallerdawg]

19. Nothing like thoughtful, informative discussion.

On the internet.

[guillaumeb]

21. It does indeed exist.

But intolerance is not limited to the GOP, or to theists.

[trotsky]

24. I would welcome it.

When are you going to start? You could begin by proving your assertion that posts on DU are scaring voters away from Democrats. Go.

[yallerdawg]

25. Again with your self-abasement?

If you believe everything you do has no meaning or purpose or consequences, wouldn't it be more appropriate for you to be in the "Philosophy" group discussing existentialism and nihilism?

[trotsky]

26. You are asserting there are specific consequences for specific actions.

Are you able to support your assertion?

Or are you admitting you have no factual evidence to back it up?

Let's try a real discussion here. Show me you can do it. I'll respond in kind.

[yallerdawg]

30. You want me to do a survey?

"How many people have looked at a DU post or link headline while searching a subject on Google or Bing or Firefox or Mazilla or Yahoo! and seen something that confirmed your Republican values or outright dismissal of "Democratic Underground" as a credible source?"

"How many undecided, Independents, and fence-sitters have looked through DU and found some expression of 'extreme' positions that have influenced your Party affiliation and your vote?"

Republicans and the administration stress the Russian interference in our election changed no votes.

You apparently agree with that assessment.

[trotsky]

31. Any actual evidence will do.

You don't want to see posts critical of religion on DU because you think that's costing us votes.

You have yet to provide any evidence whatsoever to back up this assertion.

Your attempt to equate my request for evidence with Republican party denials is insulting and wrong.

I'm giving you one last chance to prove your assertion, or drop it.

What will it be?

[yallerdawg]

32. I guess you should drop it then.

I said - despite your assertions - that I wanted to be an alternative voice here letting people know not all Democrats despise and belittle religion and religious belief.

We are a Big Tent with no 'purity tests.'

Right?

[trotsky]

33. Why should I drop it? It wasn't my assertion.

I'm not going to drop demanding you prove it unless you admit you have no evidence for it.

Are you admitting that?

[trotsky]

34. BTW

I'm going to be an alternative voice here letting people know that not all Democrats want to woo people like Joel Osteen, or associate mental illness with being female.

[delisen]

27. We can meet this projected future in strength

because we have never abandoned ethics and our ethical foundations do not depend on being a member a church-although many of us may belong to religious organizations.

[trotsky]

28. "our ethical foundations do not depend on being a member a church"

Exactly. And they never should.

[EvilAL]

29. I say it's inevitable really.

Other than devout muslim countries, India, the USA and Israel the peoples views on religion have been sliding that way for some time.

[Pope George Ringo II]

36. Although the history of "great awakenings" is fairly scary.

Get a catastrophe like that, and the next thing you know people are voting for Roy Moore.

[Bradshaw3]

35. This just shows that at least parts of America are growing up

Abandoning fairy tales is a part of becoming an adult. That applies to societies as well. Those countries in Europe that have the highest qualities of life also have less religion. This is a good trend for America.