Religion to Disappear By 2041 Claims New Study - Correction

[SecularMotion]

Last edited Sat Aug 3, 2013, 02:13 PM - Edit history (1)

The Correction

The Las Vegas Guardian Express writer, Rebecca Savastio, falsely attributes to me the claim that religion "will completely disappear by 2041." What I do project is that religious people will be a minority by that date, which is a very different prediction. - Nigel Barber

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nigel-barber/atheism-to-replace-religion-by-2041-a-clarification_b_3695658.html

Author and noted biopsychologist Nigel Barber has completed a new study that shows Atheism is most prevalent in developed countries, and, according to his projections, religion will completely disappear by 2041. His findings are discussed in his new book “Why Atheism Will Replace Religion.” A new study that clarifies his earlier research will be published in August. His findings focus on studying trends within countries around the world and the fact that “Atheists are heavily concentrated in economically developed countries”-

"In my new study of 137 countries, I also found that atheism increases for countries with a well-developed welfare state (as indexed by high taxation rates). Moreover, countries with a more equal distribution of income had more atheists. My study improved on earlier research by taking account of whether a country is mostly Moslem (where atheism is criminalized) or formerly Communist (where religion was suppressed) and accounted for three-quarters of country differences in atheism."

His main thesis stems from the phenomenon of religion declining as personal wealth increases. He cites the reason as people having less of a need for supernatural beliefs when the tangible, natural world is providing for their needs. He says the majority of the world will come to view religion as completely irrelevant by 2041.

http://guardianlv.com/2013/07/religion-to-disappear-by-2041-claims-new-study/

[corkhead]

1. In other words, eliminate welfare and taxes on the rich to keep religous belief intact

[ShawnRIN]

2. I can't see it...

Recent economic indicators show that personal wealth has been decreasing and churches seem as strong as ever.

[JNelson6563]

3. So, sadly, America will be behind the curve.

[clydefrand]

4. What has caused more deaths

since mankind began than wars - almost ALL of them started by 1 religion against another religious group. (Crusades is the most well known, but if you read much about religious history, you will see war after war by one religious group against another religious group) . So, if religion disappeared, we wouldn't have any more reasons for killing each other.

[cbayer]

11. Yep, warfare would completely disappear from the planet if religion was just eliminated.

[cleanhippie]

24. If he had actually stated that, your sarcastic comment would be appropriate.

Instead, its just plain dishonest. But you knew that already.

[d_r]

5. dumbass

by 2041 we'll have reached peak oil and be living mad max times

[Nay]

6. If the human race had had the sense to pay attention and prepare for peak oil, overpopulation,

pollution, etc., and we were truly looking at continuous prosperity as a race, I would partially agree with this guy. Unfortunately, we are looking at the destruction of the welfare states (such as they are), not an expansion, and the 1% will promulgate the weirdest religions among the proles in order to control them. Religion will be around as long as it is a useful tool, but advanced countries will still become more atheist as long as they stay 'advanced.'

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. Not new - from last year, and only an extrapolation of some European country trends

The source for this is (note the Huff Post blogger is Barber, pushing his own book):

Atheism to Defeat Religion By 2038
Posted: 06/05/2012 5:00 pm

The most obvious approach to estimating when the world will switch over to being majority atheist is based on economic growth. This is logical because economic development is the key factor responsible for secularization. In deriving this estimate, I used the nine most godless countries as my touchstone (excluding Estonia as a formerly communist country).

The countries were Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. These nine countries averaged out at the atheist transition in 2004 (5) with exactly half of the populations disbelieving in God. Their gross domestic product (GDP) averaged $29,822 compared to $10,855 for the average country in the world. How long will it take before the world economy has expanded sufficiently that the GDP of the average country has caught up to the average for the godless countries in 2004?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nigel-barber/atheism-to-defeat-religion-by-2038_b_1565108.html

This really is a dodgy use of statistics. To take the most 'godless' countries, and then to look at one economic aspect of them, and say "when the world matches that, it will also be half-atheist" is complete rubbish. You might as well say "here's the per capita GDP of the USA - when the world reaches that, it will be as theistic as the USA is".

The quote in the LV Guardian article about a "new study of 137 countries" is even older - from 2011: http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-human-beast/201107/why-atheism-will-replace-religion-new-evidence

This is junk science.

[SecularMotion]

8. The USA as a whole can't be compared to European countries,

but statistics-by-state support his conclusions.

Are Poorest States Also Most Religious?

Does lack of income drive people to church? Data compiled by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life and the U.S. Census Bureau would indicate a correlation between high levels of poverty and large concentrations of religious Americans. For instance, the Pew Forum lists Mississippi as the most religious state, with 82% saying religion is very important in their lives. The state also has the highest percentage of poor people in the country (20.8%).

http://www.allgov.com/news/controversies/are-poorest-states-also-most-religious?news=840104

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. No, they don't support his conclusions

He took the most atheistic countries. That is extreme cherrypicking. If his idea that increasing GDP makes everyone less religious were correct, then he'd need to take the highest GDP per capita counties, and work out how many you can include before the total number of believers comes above 50%. But, since that would include the USA before just about any of the countries he identified, he'd probably have a list along the lines of "1. Norway. 2. Err, that's it" (and even then over half of Norwegians believe in either a god or 'some sort of spirit or life force'). So his thesis would boil down to "if the whole world were like Norway, religion would be unimportant".

If you think the USA can't be compared to European countries, then how can you compare the whole world to European countries?

[SecularMotion]

14. Norway

All Norwegians with at least one parent who is a member are automatically registered as members at birth, so the vast majority of the members have done nothing actively to join, effectively creating an opt-out system where membership is not considered a serious statement of faith in Christianity, and one where many keep themselves enrolled for the sake of possibly wanting to have a ceremony in the church at some point in their life, without this necessarily implying belief

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_atheism#Norway

The Norwegian parliament has voted to abolish the state church, a decision which is set to be confirmed in a constitutional amendment on Monday.

The vote last Wednesday was backed by parties across the political spectrum and has the effect of severing the connection between Norway and the Church of Norway, making Norway a secular state.

Some 79.2 percent of Norwegians were registered as members of the Church of Norway as of January 1st 2010, although membership has been in steady decline over the past decade.

According to recent figures only 2 percent of Norwegians attend church regularly, and according to 2005 Gallup poll, 46 percent considered themselves atheists.

http://www.thelocal.no/20120521/norway-separates-church-and-state

[cbayer]

12. Thanks for those links. Agree completely that this is junk science.

[cbayer]

10. It will change and I would bet there will be some significant changes,

but it will not disappear.

Religious beliefs have been clearly correlated with poverty. So, based on his own premises, unless we completely eliminate poverty (or successfully complete a genocide against all the poor) in the in the world by 2041, he is wrong.

Nigel Barber impresses me not at all. Unfortunately, I can't find a link to his actual study in order to take a critical look at it. Anyone else?

[Jim__]

13. "A new study that clarifies his earlier research will be published in August."

It sounds like his new study is not yet available.

[cbayer]

15. So, he's promoting his findings before he even releases his data.

He's not to be taken seriously, imo. Perhaps he is having trouble finding a legitimate peer reviewed journal to publish him at all.

[muriel_volestrangler]

17. Since that comes right after describing his May 2012 book as 'new'

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00886ZSJ6

I don't think you can assume that means this August, as opposed to August 2012. The article uses a quote from him about "my new study of 137 countries"; he said that in 2011. It's not a reliable article. It has pulled together a variety of old articles together.

Also, Barber isn't claiming religion will 'disappear' at that date; he's claiming over half the world will be non-religious (a claim that might have something in it, but you'd need to look at trends in the largest countries, not assume that what happened in a few European countries will be reproduced everywhere). The article's headline is completely wrong.

[Jim__]

18. I think you're right - that's referring to the 2011 study.

[cbayer]

19. Oh, Psychology Today.

Well, there you go.

[Jim__]

20. Access to the paper costs $25.

Here's a link and the abstract:

According to the uncertainty hypothesis, religion helps people cope psychologically with dangerous or unpredictable situations. Conversely, with greater control over the external environment due to economic development and technological advances, religious belief is predicted to decline (the existential security hypothesis). The author predicts that religious belief would decline in economically developed countries where there is greater existential security, including income security (income equality and redistribution via welfare states) and improved health. These predictions are tested in regression analyses of 137 countries that partialed out the effects of Communism and Islamic religion both of which affect the incidence of reported nonbelief. Findings show that disbelief in God increased with economic development (measured by lower agricultural employment and third-level enrollment). Findings further show that disbelief also increased with income security (low Gini coefficient, high personal taxation tapping the welfare state) and with health security (low pathogen prevalence). Results show that religious belief declines as existential security increases, consistent with the uncertainty hypothesis.

[cbayer]

21. Thanks, Jim.

His premises are deeply flawed, imo.

Perhaps if we were really to address economic inequality, we might see some radical change. But his assumption that this will (is) happening is erroneous.

[rug]

16. The Jehovah's Witnesses predictedthe Second Coming in 1914.

And 1975.

I hope no one loses their faith when this prediction fails.

[cleanhippie]

25. You would prefer that people keep their faith in beliefs proven to be false?

Well, yes, I guess you would.

[rug]

26. This belief is false.

Sorry to break it to you.

[cleanhippie]

27. So you don't prefer that people keep their faith in beliefs proven to be false?

[rug]

28. I prefer that people not make stupid predictions based on dubious statistics.

Don't you?

[cleanhippie]

29. Reading one's Holy Book and making a prediction is stupid?

[rug]

30. Oh, you consider scripture to be a book of statistics? How odd.

You really don't wear disingenuity very well.

[cleanhippie]

32. No, you consider scripture to be a book of statistics. That's what YOU stated.

Thanks for yet another trip into the bizarro world of religious reasoning, aka "WTF?"

I know you will be unable to not respond as your compulsion to have the last word simply will not allow you to let it go.

Prove me right.

[rug]

34. Read the post again. The prophecy is Barber's and the scripture is his book.

Somehow, I expect this will not be the last word.

[cleanhippie]

35. .

[uriel1972]

22. Umm I don't think so...

It is very pernicious that religion thing.

[dimbear]

23. For the granddaddy of all these predictions and the disappointment that follows see Matthew 9:1.

Everybody note the difference between 'disappear' and 'become irrelevant?'

All political parties except the two big political parties, for instance. Yet hardly likely to disappear.

[LostOne4Ever]

31. This looks to me like an update of this older article

http://www.democraticunderground.com/121878533

or

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nigel-barber/atheism-to-defeat-religion-by-2038_b_1565108.html

Except they didnt give the math this time. As I said back May they were not considering inflation and I don't think they are now:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1218&pid=78554

So long as the rate of global inflation (4.4%) is higher than the average global GDP growth rate (3.3%) this point where atheist outnumber believers will never happen. In order to allow for us to reach that threshold the global GDP would have to surpass global inflation rate.

EDIT: Ah should have read all the comments. muriel_volestrangler beat me to it.

[Jim__]

33. "Will the religious inherit the earth?"

The article referenced in the OP refers to Will the Religious Inherit the Earth. Here's a graph from that article that shows the relationship between income and religiosity may be somewhat more complex than Barber claims:



It looks like to get the actual percentage from the graph, you have to multiply the value on the vertical axis by 100.

[daleo]

36. Not exactly a tight correlation

But still an interesting graph.

[SecularMotion]

37. Kick for correction

[rug]

38. Thi sounds like The Watchtower when they replaced 1914 with 1975.

[dimbear]

40. Correcting an issue of fact sounds like the Watchtower changing the past?

Don't see that. When one is misrepresented, one has the right to object and set the record straight.

BTW, we can take a bit of a bow for seeing right through the original wrong claims. Can't fool us.

[rug]

41. The JWs' correction was based on an alleged miscalculation of data.

Although we're dealing with a different data base here, the squirming is familiar.

[cbayer]

39. Not surprised that he is backpedaling on this.

It was a deeply flawed theory to begin with, imo.

[AtheistCrusader]

42. A tad over-optimistic, IMO

[ralfellis]

43. Church embarrassed by the real Jesus

Actually, Jesus did exist as a real person in the historical record, but the Church does not want you to know that, because the real Jesus was actually a warrior monarch who tried to take Judaea by force. (Just as the gospels say, if you read them all.)

So the biblical (King) Jesus EmManuel, was actually King Izas Manu of Edessa - a real king, with a real capitial city, a real palace, and real coins.

According to history, King Izas Manu was a Nazarene Jew who fomented a revolt against the Romans in Judaea in the 1st century. But he lost this war and was crucified in the Kidron Valley, but was taken down from the cross by Josephus (Flavius) and survived. He also wore a ceremonial Crown of Thorns - the traditional royal crown of Edessa.

Sound familiar? it should do. See 'Jesus, King of Edessa'.