'Direct hit': 'Space Weather Woman' predicts massive solar storm to strike Earth

[cbabe]

https://www.rawstory.com/solar-storm/

‘Direct hit’: ‘Space Weather Woman’ predicts massive solar storm to strike Earth

One of the world's leading space science experts predicted a "direct hit" from a solar storm.

Dr. Tamitha Skov, known as the "Space Weather Woman," is a research scientist at the federally funded Aerospace Corporation and is an award-winning science educator on social media

On Saturday, she posted a NASA prediction model video.

"Direct Hit!" she predicted. "A snake-like filament launched as a big solar storm while in the Earth-strike zone."

"NASA predicts impact early July 19. Strong Aurora shows possible with this one, deep into mid-latitudes," she explained.

She said there could be disruption to GPS and amateur radio.

…more…

(What does this mean for us?)

[captain queeg]

1. This could be a big deal. Though she only predicts disruption to GPS and radio

That won’t be too bad. I suppose to make the prediction she has some idea of the intensity but historically a big solar storm and a direct hit could lead to much worse so maybe big is relative.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

8. Yep, a Carrington level event would be really bad

Like potentially near apocalyptic bad. Something of that size and intensity could burn out the power grid.

[highplainsdem]

9. The Carrington Event in 1859 caused both serious and weird telegraph problems.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving telegraph operators electric shocks.[22] Telegraph pylons threw sparks.[23] Some telegraph operators could continue to send and receive messages despite having disconnected their power supplies.[24]

Some telegraph lines seem to have been able to produce a sufficient geomagnetically induced current from the electromagnetic field to allow for continued communication with the telegraph operator power supplies switched off.[25] The following conversation occurred between two operators of the American Telegraph Line between Boston and Portland, Maine, on the night of 2 September 1859 and reported in the Boston Traveler:

Boston operator (to Portland operator): "Please cut off your battery [power source] entirely for fifteen minutes."
Portland operator: "Will do so. It is now disconnected."
Boston: "Mine is disconnected, and we are working with the auroral current. How do you receive my writing?"
Portland: "Better than with our batteries on. – Current comes and goes gradually."
Boston: "My current is very strong at times, and we can work better without the batteries, as the aurora seems to neutralize and augment our batteries alternately, making current too strong at times for our relay magnets. Suppose we work without batteries while we are affected by this trouble."
Portland: "Very well. Shall I go ahead with business?"
Boston: "Yes. Go ahead."

The conversation was carried on for around two hours using no battery power at all and working solely with the current induced by the aurora, and it was said[by whom?] that this was the first time on record that more than a word or two was transmitted in such manner.[26]

[PXR-5]

2. https://spaceweather.com/

This is a good site that explains it well.

https://spaceweather.com/

[captain queeg]

3. That is cool. I saw some NASA guys do a presentation about solar storms

At our conference of grid operators. Generators and transmission operators. They kind of scared the beejeesus out of me. It’s pretty much just a question of when we’ll get clobbered. But it has to be the big one at the right orientation for a direct hit. Which historically is only once a century or so.

[DFW]

4. I heard about the last time

Almost 100 years ago. Not one GPS was left functioning…..

[captain queeg]

5. GPS? Are you yanking my chain?

But a big one can induce currents in power lines and blow transformers. Big transformers are not something that can be replaced quickly. If you had wide spread damage it would take many months to repair.

[DFW]

7. Ever so slightly

But with our worthless governor in Texas, his idea of preparing for a massive power outage in rhe summer consists of putting an extra tray of ice cubes in the freezer.

[Backseat Driver]

6. Spin me around twice in the mall and I'm lost

I'd love to see a brilliant aurora again, though. Last time, late 80s maybe, the cars were stopping on the freeway shoulder to have a peek at the several mostly green swirls. Think the weather report is for 90s again, so likely too humid/cloudy w/pop up storms at night.

[xocetaceans]

11. LOL...But you have to admit that the GPS constellation was somewhat meager back then.

Here's a NOAA site with a 30-minute aurora forecast for North America, etc:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

Q: Meager

A: What has the German cognate mager as in ermagern, Alex?

Since you speak German, I thought I would throw in that last bit for fun. Checking on the verb ermagern (to make sure I was not making up a word) led me to few references to it online. Weirdly, one reference is from a book from (possibly) 1710, Der Curiöse Künstler, page 20, Num. XII., paragraph 1, line 2 - "wann er ermagert".

Der in vielen Wissenschaften reichversehene Curiöse Künstler, Oder wohleingerichtetes Haus- Arzney- Kunst- und Wunderbuch: in welchem das Nöthigste und Nützlichste, so im menschlichen Leben und in der Haus- und Landwirthschafts-Kunst vorzukommen pfleget, enthalten ; Mit nöthigen Registern und hierzu dienlichen Kupfern versehen

https://opacplus.bsb-muenchen.de/title/BV017413478

Were you familiar with that verb by chance? I must have run into it in one of Hesse's works or Goethe's works but don't know any longer. I'm just asking out of (ironically) curiosity.

Additionally and possibly interestingly, the publisher's "foreword" ( "Des Verlegers Bericht an den geneigten Leser" ) even mentions a "Lateinische Sprichwort": vino vendibili non opus.

[BadgerKid]

10. I have a big grain of salt ready for July 19.

Nothing in top news sites.