Odds increase for tropical wave's development into the next storm, hurricane center says

[catbyte]

Orlando Sentinel
September 13, 2022



ORLANDO, Fla. — The odds of the next tropical storm emerging this week keep going up as the National Hurricane Center monitors two tropical waves in the east Atlantic.

First, a tropical wave about a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles is showing better organization Tuesday morning, and further development is looking possible, the NHC said in its 2 p.m. Eastern time update. The wave is producing showers and thunderstorms in a favorable environment for tropical maturity. The NHC predicts a tropical depression could form as the wave pushes west. Hurricane specialists gave the wave a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and 40% in the next five days.

Second, a tropical wave passed through the Cabo Verde Islands and diminished Tuesday, the NHC said. The wave is still producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Marginal development is possible as the wave moves west but the NHC reduced its odds of growing to a 10% chance over the next five days. Previously, forecasters gave it s 20% chance.

snip

Currently, hurricane season is in the middle of the most active time for tropical activity, between mid-August and mid-October. Prior to the season, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters predicted 2022 to be yet another above-average season in storm production coming off the heels of two record-breaking seasons for named storms. The NOAA doubled down on its forecast at the start of August. However, so far the season has been off to a sluggish pace in comparison to past seasons.

snip

Full article

[Phoenix61]

1. One day I'll live somewhere where none of this matters.

Until then I’ll be keeping an eye on this.