So long, La Nina
Last edited Mon Jan 16, 2017, 07:59 PM - Edit history (2)
In its latest monthly advisory, issued Thursday, NOAAs Climate Prediction Center all but sounded the death knell for the 2016-17 La Niña. Sea surface temperatures in the benchmark Niño3.4 region have remained in the weak range for La Niña (0.5°C to 1.0°C below the seasonal average), and the subsurface cold relative to average across the equatorial Pacific has almost completely vanished. In a new ENSO Blog entry, NOAA/CPCs Emily Becker reviews global weather conditions and how theyve stacked up against La Niña expectations (fairly well, especially for temperature).
Models are close to unanimous in bringing the Niño3.4 region into the neutral range over the next couple of months. There are some model indications of a weak El Niño kicking in by summer 2017. That wouldnt shock me, given the continued predominance of a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Positive PDOs are associated with a higher frequency of El Niño events, and the PDO has now been in positive territory in each month from January 2014 through December 2016the first time this has happened across three consecutive calendar years in records that go back to 1900. Even so, NOAAs Emily Becker isnt ready to predict a 2017-18 El Niño: A three-year series of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño has only happened once since 1950, in 1963/1964/1965. This doesnt make it impossible that El Niño could develop, but it means that we arent counting on it.
ps://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/icy-weekend-for-central-plains-la-nias-days-are-numbered
on edit: html doesn't work in titles? can't use a tilde ñ