Today's PredictWise - 2016 Democratic Nomination - Hillary 82% - Bernie 17%

[Alfresco]

2016 President – Winner - Democratic 63% - Republican 37%

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/
Key data on this page includes: Prediction Markets (Betfair, PredictIt, Hypermind), Polling (HuffPost Pollster), Bookie (OddsChecker).

[Jarqui]

1. He's about where Obama was 3 weeks before the Iowa vote

[Cali_Democrat]

2. The OP is specific to the Dem nomination...

Your chart is related to the general election.

[Jarqui]

7. Ok, here you go

Different graph. Similar story. Bernie's pretty close to where Obama was.

[Alfresco]

14. Time will tell if Bernie can pull it off. I have my doubts.

[Jarqui]

17. For sure.

But for months, folks have been trying to stick a fork in Bernie with these stats.

Bernie's proving that that won't wash just yet and maybe never.

Reports of Hillary's campaign being anxious ring pretty true these days when she's sending her daughter out to lie about Bernie's position on healthcare.

It's undeniable that something has happened in this race. It just got considerably tighter.

More people are feelin' the Bern than ever!

[Alfresco]

3. oops... :-)

[Beacool]

8. This is not 2008 and Sanders is not Obama.

I have no doubt that Sanders will do well in IA, maybe even winning that caucus, and will probably win NH. Nonetheless, I have no doubt that Hillary will do well in SC, NV and the Super Tuesday states.

[Jarqui]

10. OMG, Bernie's not black ?? And it's not Jan 13th, 2008?

Holy colorblind time warp!!

I didn't realize they were not the same candidate. Thanks for pointing that out!



I think the Gravis poll of Nevada is like many Gravis polls - not very reliable.

The last credible poll of Nevada was done by CNN who found Clinton +16 in early October. I suspect Bernie has tightened that up. And should he win Iowa and New Hampshire, that state is very likely to be very competitive.

Clinton was +25 on Obama six weeks or so before the vote and only won +5. This could easily become a very competitive state.

SC looks like an impossible stretch but Bernie could pick up some delegates there by tightening the gap.

[Beacool]

11. Excuse me, who was talking about race?

BTW, Hillary won NV in 2008.

[Jarqui]

13. You were suggesting that I could not recognize that Sanders and Obama were not the same

candidate.

There are lots of differences between them. Color is just one.

However, we are seeing some things that are similar in 2016 to 2008.

Obama's campaign was in roughly the same spot as Sanders is now. The 2008 Iowa win catapulted Obama into being a serious contender - the graphs show it. A 2016 win in Iowa and NH would do something similar for Bernie - in terms of making the primary competitive - which to date in the polls, it really hasn't been until maybe recently.

Would it be as much as what we saw with Obama? I really don't know. Maybe. Maybe not. With all the money Bernie has, it will just turn this primary into a competitive contest. I suspect Clinton will still have the advantage and be in a better position than she was in 2008.

A key difference is that to me, Obama pretty much snatched the nomination on Super Tuesday. To some extent, he took the Clinton campaign by surprise. I think that's going to be tougher to do this time around. Of course, if Hillary keeps marching Chelsea out to lie for her, that could change in a hurry.

[whatchamacallit]

4. The bookies will be holding their asses the morning after n/t

[99Forever]

5. The Onion always gives me a belly laugh!

Thanks.

[Alfresco]

6. I usually don't read The Onion but considering your recommendation maybe I'll start. :-)

[Oilwellian]

9. Oh, that would be so wonderful!

[Alfresco]

12. Now I know I'll start reading it with such an enthusiastic endorsement. :-)

[ram2008]

15. That is a 8 point decline for Hillary and 5 point increase for Bernie in two days

PredictIT which seems to be more reflexive shows and has active discussion going on shows:

Hillary at 66% chance. And Bernie at 36% chance

Hillary dropped from about 85 a few days ago while Bernie increased from the 15% he was at a few days ago.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/1232/Who-will-win-the-2016-Democratic-presidential-nomination

[Betty Karlson]

16. If my memory serves me right, his numbers have gone up yet again. From 12 to 17 % or so? eom